Players Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Early Starters to Prosper at Sawgrass

Players Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Early Starters to Prosper at Sawgrass

The Players Championship is an event you will have heard all about, and this is the 50th renewal of what is known as the 'fifth major'. Over the years you have generally had to be an elite player to win this event, but what about the fastest starters?

Anyone can post a low round on any given day on the PGA Tour, and the first round leader market is notoriously volatile. There is some method to the madness though, and we will highlight our thoughts below.

With all the outright winners here since 2019 being priced at 30-1 and shorter, we might be relying on this market to catch some value this week.

The last five leaders/co-leaders here after round 1 have been priced at 40-1 or bigger, and that includes last year's first round leader, Chad Ramey, who was priced at +35000 in this market, the week he held the Thursday lead.

What factors come into play the most at TPC Sawgrass when it comes to your First Round Leader bets? Let's try and spot some trends below.

Players Championship First Round Leader Strategy

Here are all the first round leaders here since 2018, plus their tee time and the score they shot on that day to lead.

• 2023 - Chad Ramey (8:07 am #1 tee) - 64
• 2022 - Tommy Fleetwood (6:56 am #10 tee), Tom Hoge (8:13 am #10 tee) - 66
• 2021 - Sergio Garcia (7:40 am #10 tee) - 65
• 2020 - Hideki Matsuyama (8:24 am #10 tee) - 63 - Tournament was cancelled with the first round still to be concluded
• 2019 - Tommy Fleetwood (8:22 am #10 tee), Keegan Bradley (1:17 pm #10 tee) - 65
• 2018 - Six-Way Tie: Webb Simpson (7:43 am #10 tee), Dustin Johnson (8:05 am #10 tee), Alex Noren (8:49 am #10 tee), Chesson Hadley (12:46 pm #10 tee), Matt Kuchar (1:19 pm #1 tee), Patrick Cantlay (1:41 pm #10 tee) - 66

The morning starters have had the best of it over the years, and no player has emerged alone to lead from the afternoon wave since 2014. If a player has shot the lowest score from the afternoon wave, it has only matched the lowest score from the morning in this span.

Interestingly, only 2 of the 13 first round leaders/co-leaders here since 2018, have started from the first tee. It looks to be an added bonus if your player is not only teeing off in the morning but also starting on the back nine as well. Perhaps getting the tough closing stretch out of the way first puts players at ease, helping them to shoot a low round.

Players Championship Weather Forecast

Here is the weather forecast for the Players Championship this week:

Thursday should be dry, although the course should be soft and receptive to start, as there has been plenty of rain in the area in recent weeks.

There’s a chance of showers and thunderstorms from Friday through to the weekend, but this shouldn't affect our decision-making in the first round leader market.

Mild winds and gusts are expected from 11 am through to the afternoon, and it does look like the early starters will get the very best of the conditions again.

Who in this Field Started Fast on Tour Last Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average in the 2022/23 PGA Tour season.

• Scottie Scheffler (1st overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 67.91 – Low Opening Round – 63 (Travelers Championship)
• Adam Scott (2nd Overall in 2022/23 - Scoring Average 68.50 - Low Opening Round - 62 (Travelers Championship)
• Ludvig Aberg (3rd overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.54) – Low Opening Round – 65 (Rocket Mortgage Classic)
• Xander Schauffele (4th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.62) – Low Opening Round – 62 (US Open)
• Viktor Hovland (5th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.86) – Low Opening Round – 64 (RBC Heritage)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1?

When you average out the lowest round 1 scores from the past six years here, you get a score of 64.83. A 64 might be required to avoid a dead heat, but a 65 may also put you in the mix depending on conditions.

The Favorites in the First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Players Championship.

• Scottie Scheffler (+1800)
• Rory McIlroy (+2500)
• Justin Thomas (+3500)
• Xander Schauffele (+3500)
• Max Homa (+4000)
• Patrick Cantlay (+4000)

2024 Players Championship First Round Leader Picks

Here are my first round leader picks for the Players Championship this week.

Si Woo Kim +5500 (FanDuel)

Si Woo Kim has been treading water this season, but he enjoyed his best ball-striking week of the season at Bay Hill last week, ranking 4th in SG Approach and 5th in SG Tee to Green and he can now bring that to Sawgrass, where he's won before.

Kim opened with a 68 on debut here back in 2016 and a year later bookend 69s helped him win the title, becoming the youngest Players Champion. When returning as defending champion he opened with a 67 to sit 7th after round 1 and that is further evidence he enjoys this course. With a win, a 9th, a 23rd, and a 27th place finish here, Kim is seemingly very comfortable with the TPC Sawgrass layout.

He has never shot a really low one at this course, even in the year he won, but I am taking that as him being overdue, as opposed to him not being capable.

Opening rounds of 64 and 66 at the Amex and Pebble Beach respectively this season are a sign he's capable of contending in the opening round, as he sat inside the top 5 in both tournaments heading into Friday.

Tommy Fleetwood +6600 (BetRivers)

Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but Tommy Fleetwood has excelled here at TPC Sawgrass over the years, twice starting the week as the co-leader on day one.

He would need to bounce back quickly from a disappointing week at Bay Hill, but I do think he's the type that can turn it around quickly, especially on a course as suitable as this one.

Opening rounds of 65 and 66 have seen him share the lead here in the past, but he's also shot plenty of good rounds later in the week as well. On debut, Fleetwood shot a 2nd round 67, and two-weekend rounds of 68 followed a year later. A 65-67 start in 2019 saw him lead after rounds 1 and 2, and in the last two years, he has opened with a 66 to co-lead in 2021 and shot a 3rd round 65 last year, which catapulted him into 4th place.

Fleetwood is a habitually fast starter, sitting within two of the first round lead 45 times in his career, and he's converted 8 of those into first round leads, including his two here. He's also led after round 1 of the DP World Tour flagship event at Wentworth and the Open Championship in 2023, so he likes doing it in the big events as well.

Fast starts at TPC River Highlands (Pete Dye course) and the Valspar Championship (Florida course) add further support to his claims here. Hopefully, he has a short memory after last week and can start fast here.

An early start (8:24 am) off the 10th tee looks like the perfect scenario for Fleetwood, who can repeat his day one success here at TPC Sawgrass.

Aaron Rai +8000 (FanDuel)

From one Englishman to another, Aaron Rai is another who likes to start fast, and he has posted six first round leads in his career, three of which have come on the PGA Tour. One of those was on a Pete Dye course at the RBC Heritage, and this is another suitable test.

Rai shot a 3rd round 65 here last year, which helped him to a 13th-place finish, and when you break down his efforts this year round-by-round, it looks like he can start fast again.

He opened his season with a round of 65 at the Sony Open to sit 3rd after round 1, and he followed this up with a 3rd round 66 at the Amex where he missed the 54-hole cut. Just a week later he shot 66 in the opening round at Torrey Pines, which left him in 4th, and even when he missed the cut in Phoenix recently, he shot a 2nd round 65.

3rd in SG Approach and 7th SG Tee to Green on his last start, Rai can bring his low-scoring game to Florida this week.

Chesson Hadley +16000 (Bet365)

Chesson Hadley might not be the first name you think of at the Players Championship this week, and there won't be much expectation on him to contend outright, but he could certainly start fast on Thursday.

He is in the first group out in round 1, and he is the type of player I think can repeat Chad Ramey's surprise round one lead from 2023.

Hadley ranks 6th in Round 1 Scoring Average this season, and he's been in contention on Thursday on more than one occasion. At the Amex, he opened with a 65 to sit 14th on Thursday, and a week later he opened with a 67 to sit inside the top 10 at Torrey Pines. His last two events have seen him open with rounds of 69 and 65, and when he opened with the latter at the Cognizant Classic, he sat 3rd after round 1.

He has held six first round leads in his career, one of those coming here when he was a co-leader in 2018, and he's led or co-led three times since then on the PGA Tour as well.

Hadley found himself within one of the first round lead at the Valspar (another Florida course) and he's also gone close to shooting the lowest score on Thursday at another Pete Dye Course, during the RBC Heritage, where he was two back after round 1. These correlating efforts support his case further.

Hadley is playing well enough to fire a low round and history is working in his favor, with his early tee time, and correlating form.