Valspar Championship Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Doug Ghim, Lucas Glover Impress in Flordia?
The PGA Tour heads to Tampa this week for the final stop in the four-week Florida swing with the Valspar Championship. Can Doug Ghim and Lucas Glover impress in Florida? Andy Lack takes a closer look at the Valspar Championship and shares his betting picks and predictions.
Andy Lack - March 18, 2024, 9:43 AM EDT
10 minValspar Championship Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Doug Ghim, Lucas Glover Impress in Flordia?
After a thrilling Players Championship where Scottie Scheffler became the first player to successfully defend his title, the PGA Tour heads to Tampa this week for the final stop in the four-week Florida swing. The Valspar Championship was founded in 2000 as the Tampa Bay Classic, and while originally conceived as an alternate event, it has held a standalone spot in March since 2007. The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook remains one of the PGA Tour’s most over-looked venues, and under firm conditions, it provides one of the most difficult on the schedule. Xander Schauffele and Brian Harman will look to continue their momentum after their incredibly close calls last week, while other big names such as Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and Tony Finau, will look to find their footing after disappointing performances at TPC Sawgrass.
Valspar Championship DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: March 21 - March 24, 2024
- Where: Palm Harbor, FL
- Where to Watch: Golf Channel, NBC, Peacock
Valspar Championship: Course Preview
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook
The Copperhead Course at Innisbrook was designed in 1971 by Larry Packard. Playing as a par 71 and measuring 7,340 yards, the Packard design is generally one of the toughest tracks on Tour in firm conditions. Firm is the operative word here, as turf conditions and wind play a major factor in determining how this course plays. For example, in 2018 and 2019, Innisbrook played as a top-five course on the PGA Tour in difficulty. Yet the following two editions, we saw more rain and less wind, and Innisbrook played towards the middle of the pack in difficulty. Last year, there was a return to form, as Innisbrook played as the 10th-toughest course on Tour and Taylor Moore triumphed at 10 under par. The course played two strokes harder than it did the prior year, and we very rarely ever see that much year-to-year variance in terms of how a PGA Tour course plays. After a wet winter, we have at least seen drier conditions in Florida over the last two weeks. I would expect the challenge to split the difference in terms of what we saw last year compared to the two prior years when Sam Burns claimed victory.
In terms of the course itself, Innisbrook is unique in the sense that it features five par threes and four par fives, and the par threes are all incredibly long and challenging. All five of the par threes measure over 195 yards, which explains the long iron intensive nature of the golf course. Overall, they played as the fifth-toughest set of par threes on the PGA Tour, with each playing over par. The par fours are no pushover either, as none play under 380 yards. The par fives provide the only relief, and they rank as the easiest four holes on the course.
Ultimately, the reason why Innisbrook is so challenging is largely because it curbs aggressive play off the tee while still featuring a high amount of long iron approach shots.. It’s not a golf course that can be totally overpowered off the tee, nor is it a golf course where players can take less than driver off the tee and still expect to have a bunch of wedges in. The Larry Packard design is not a traditional Florida course either, as it features far more of a Carolina aesthetic. The last three Florida courses we have seen all rank top-10 in penalty strokes per round and feature a tremendous amount of water. Innisbrook, on the other hand, ranks bottom-10 in penalty strokes per round and is far more in the vein of a subtle, strategic course in the mold of East Lake or Sedgefield. This week, I will primarily be looking for accurate drivers of the ball, elite middle to long iron players, and those who have found success on other tight, strategic courses and over-seeded Bermuda.
Valspar Championship Key Stats
- Proximity 175 yards plus
- Good Drive Percentage
- Strokes Total: Comparative Courses
Valspar Championship: Outright Picks
Doug Ghim (+7000) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
After a certain point, ignoring what Doug Ghim is doing on the golf course right now is just pure negligence. After a 16th-place finish at the Players Championship where he gained strokes in all four major categories, Ghim has now recorded five top-20 finishes in a row. Your guess is as good as mine in terms of how long he can keep it up, but the former University of Texas standout is getting it done in a fairly sustainable fashion.
Ghim has gained strokes off the tee in every single start this year, and he has also gained over a stroke on approach in five straight starts. Putting has always been Ghim’s biggest struggle, but he has now gained over three strokes putting in back-to-back starts. It’s undeniable that Ghim is riding a newfound confidence in all aspects of his game, and now he travels to another golf course that emphasizes accuracy off the tee and overall approach play. In a diminished field with a true lack of star power at the top, I see no reason to hop off the hot hand and ignore what is right in front of us.
Lucas Glover (+11000) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
In a diminished field with multiple withdrawals and top players in full on Masters mode, there’s a lot of opportunity to capitalize on elite ball-strikers farther down the board. Always a statistical darling due to his elite accuracy off the tee and overall approach play, my interest in Glover is also largely based on his success at other narrow, firm, driving accuracy and approach Southeastern Bermuda courses such as TPC Southwind and Sedgefield. Glover simply did not just get hot towards the end of last year.
The golf courses also played a major role in the former U.S. Open champion's back-to-back wins. The price and value should be there too, as Glover is coming off a missed cut on the number at the Players where he still gained strokes in both ball-striking categories. Now he travels to a course that emphasizes exactly what he excels at, as Glover is the only player in this field to rank top-20 in good drive percentage, driving accuracy, overall approach play, approach play from the rough, proximity 175-200 yards, and proximity from 200 yards-plus.
GOLF ODDS
