Valspar Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Pick These Four to Start Fast

Valspar Championship First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Pick These Four to Start Fast

The Valspar Championship will be the final stop in this Florida Swing, and it is a tournament that promises to be exciting from start to finish. A tough test for any player in the field, we could see a tournament won in single digits this week, especially if the wind comes into two as expected.

We are yet to land a First Round Leader winner in 2024, but we have had chances, and it was Tommy Fleetwood who was charging toward contention last week on Thursday, before triple-bogeying and falling away.

At 22-1 and bigger the field in this market, there is value everywhere you look in this typically volatile market, and you might want to use it as a way to boost some of your favorites at the top of the market if that's the way you are heading this week.

I'll be looking for players further down the odds board for my bets in the First Round Leader market this week, but that doesn't mean I won't acknowledge the likes of Justin Thomas and Xander Schauffele at the top of the market, who generally start fast, and have done so here in the past as well.

Valspar Championship First Round Leader Strategy

Here are all the first round leaders at the Valspar Championship since 2018.

• 2023 - Ryan Brehm (8:35 am #1 tee), Stephan Jaeger (8:46 am #1 tee), Adam Schenk (1:36 pm #10 tee) - 66
• 2022 - Jhonattan Vegas (8:02 am #10 tee), Sam Burns (1:25 pm #1 tee), Adam Hadwin (1:47 pm #10 tee), David Lipsky (2:09 pm #1 tee) - 64
• 2021 - Keegan Bradley (7:50 am #10 tee) - 64
• 2019 - Joel Dahmen (7:51 am #10 tee), Sepp Straka (9:30 am #1 tee) - 66
• 2018 - Corey Conners (8:40 am #1 tee) - 67

Generally speaking, the morning starts have enjoyed the better of it here, but that is not to rule out afternoon starters, as they have come to the fore in each of the past two years, providing a co-leader from the afternoon wave in both 2022 and 2023.

Valspar Championship Weather Forecast

Here is the weather forecast for the Valspar Championship this week:

There are some strong winds coming over the weekend and there will be some on Thursday, just not as drastic as later in the week.

If anything, the afternoon starters may get the better of the playing conditions, with lighter winds and warmer temperatures, so I think it is worth splitting your picks over both waves on this occasion.

Below is a snapshot of the forecast for Thursday.

Who in this Field Started Fast on Tour Last Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average in the 2022/23 PGA Tour season.)

• Xander Schauffele (4th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 68.62) – Low Opening Round – 62 (US Open)
• Andrew Novak (8th overall in 2022/23 - Scoring Average 69.04 - Low Opening Round - 64 (Wyndham Championship)
• Eric Cole (13th overall in 2022/23 - Scoring Average 69.19) - Low Opening Round - 64 (Travelers Championship)
• Dylan Wu (14th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.22) – Low Opening Round – 63 (Bermuda Championship)
• Sungjae Im (16th overall in 2022/23 - Scoring Average 69.28) - Low Opening Round - 65 (Three Different Tournaments)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1?

Averaging out the leading scores from round 1 here over the past five renewals gives us an average score of 65.4, and a 65 should put you firmly in the mix again this week. A 64 would almost certainly be enough this week.

The Favorites in the First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Valspar Championship.

• Xander Schauffele (+2200)
• Sam Burns (+2800)
• Justin Thomas (+3300)
• Jordan Spieth (+3500)
• Brian Harman (+4000)
• Sungjae Im (+4000)

2024 Valspar Championship First Round Leader Picks

Here are my first round leader picks for the Valspar Championship this week.

Doug Ghim +6000 (FanDuel)

Doug Ghim just missed out in my sleepers and value picks article, but I will be backing him in the First Round Leader market, given his recent run of form.

In each of his last five starts, Ghim has posted a low round, as he shot 66 on Sunday at Torrey Pines, a 65 in the opening round of the Phoenix Open, and six more rounds of 67 or better over the last three events.

Ghim opened with a round of 69 here last year, and he could find a few more birdies this time around, based on his epic run of form, and his strong ball striking.

He is one of the afternoon starters worth looking at, especially as he leads the tour in Par 5 Scoring Average this week, something he will need to excel in this week, as this is where the scoring is done.

Maverick McNealy +7000 (bet365)

I like Maverick McNealy in the outright market this week, and it looks like I am going to have to go all in on him, adding him in the first round leader market as well.

McNealy has ended the opening round in 9th, 2nd, and 6th already in 2024, and he can finally lead after day 1 with a low one in Tampa this week.

He sat 4th after round 1 on debut here 12 months ago, opening with a 67, and his final round 70 was also a solid score that day as well. Although neither of those rounds would be good enough to lead here after round 1 on Thursday, they do show he can score around here, which is important.

McNealy is 2nd in SG Around the Green this season, and while that is not a statistic that generally holds much significance in the FRL market, it does show he can get up and down, as does his top 20 ranking in Bogey Avoidance, which should mean he can keep his score on track on Thursday. Keeping big numbers off his card could prove the difference this week, and McNealy is doing that well.

Matthew NeSmith +10000 (BetRivers)

Matthew NeSmith tied the course record here in 2021, with a second round 61, and then also set him up for the lowest 36-hole score in this tournament. He may failed to get over the line for a win that week, but he certainly showed his birdie-making ability around a tough course.

NeSmith is perfect here in 2 visits, finishing 21st and 3rd, and he's not shot worse than 71 here in those two appearances, so it feels like there is a certain floor to his play at Copperhead.

He was 12th after 18 holes in 2022, sitting three shots back of the lead, and that 61 he followed up with was beyond impressive.

NeSmith is in the first group out on Thursday and can make plenty of birdies here again, after a confidence-building 26th-place finish at the Players Championship last week.

Rico Hoey +20000 (bet365)

Rico Hoey ranks ranked 6th in Round 1 Scoring Average, 32nd in Par 5 Scoring, and 33rd in Birdie Average, so I like the look of him at massive odds. He starts in the morning which has been favorable in the past, and he can put that to use.

Hoey opened with a 63 at the Amex, a 68 at Torrey Pines, and a second-round 66 in the Cognizant Classic was another sign he could go low. Add in his opening round of 65 to lead in Puerto Rico, which he followed up with a 67 on Saturday, and Hoey is clearly finding some low rounds of late.

That first round lead at the Puerto Rico Open last time out was the first one of his career, but 7 times since 2017, Hoey has been within two of the first round lead across different tours. This might prove too tough of a course, especially on first look, given his lack of Bogey Avoidance, but I will take a shot on a low scorer nonetheless.