Houston Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Four Players Who Can Lead on Thursday

Houston Open First Round Leader Picks and Predictions: Four Players Who Can Lead on Thursday

The Houston Open promises to be an exciting event, and as there are now just two events until the Masters, there are some key players to keep an eye on this week.

Scottie Scheffler will be looking to win for the third-straight event and he's going for a second Green Jacket in April, so how he performs here will certainly be important.

Wyndham Clark is making his debut at Augusta, which is quite amazing to think considering he is already a U.S. Open winner, and behind Scheffler, he is one of the most in-form players. He will be one of the leading candidates to win the Masters, even if debutants have a hard time at Augusta National.

Will Zalatoris, Sahith Theegala, Jason Day, and Tony Finau are all playing here and have top 10s at Augusta to their name as well, so this could be a big week for them.

These are the leading candidates in both the Outright and First Round Leader markets, but are they the best candidates for a fast start on Thursday? We look at the field as a whole, what is required to lead here after round 1, and what key indicators we can use to find a bet in this market this week.

Houston Open First Round Leader Strategy

Here are all the first round leaders at the Houston Open, since the event moved to Memorial Park in 2020.

• 2022 - Alex Noren (6:51 am #10 tee), Aaron Wise (7:35 am #10 tee), Tony Finau (12:09 pm #10 tee) - 65
• 2021 - Russell Henley (6:40 am #1 tee), Talor Gooch (7:02 am #1 tee), Marc Leishman (7:35 am #1 tee), Luke List (11:25 am #1 tee), Martin Trainer (12:09 pm #1 tee) - 65
• 2020 - Brandt Snedeker (12:15 pm #1 tee) - 65

While 6 of the 9 co-leaders here after round 1 have played in the morning, every year a player from the afternoon wave has claimed a share of the lead. This suggests you can take your pick from the full field, rather than ruling out a particular wave.

Brandt Snedeker was 90-1 in the outright market in 2020, but when you look at the first round leaders in 2021 and 2022, they are generally made up of favorites. Tony Finau was 16-1 to win the tournament in 2022 and made the best start. It was a similar story in 2021 as well, as Marc Leishman (25-1), Talor Gooch (30-1), and Russell Henley (45-1) all made a fast start to their week here.

Things might change now that they are playing in softer conditions in March (instead of November), but so far, the Houston Open winner has generally favored those at the top of the market in Round 1.

Houston Open Weather Forecast

Here is the weather forecast for the Houston Open this week:

On Thursday, it looks relatively calm for the most part, and I am not getting too caught up in a little shift in gusts in the afternoon.

We have seen for the most part that this is an event, where players from either wave can make a run in round 1, and the weather doesn't do anything to deter me.

Who in this Field Started Fast on Tour Last Season?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average in the 2022/23 PGA Tour season.)

• Scottie Scheffler (1st overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 67.91 – Low Opening Round – 63 (Travelers Championship)
• Andrew Novak (8th overall in 2022/23 - Scoring Average 69.04 - Low Opening Round - 64 (Wyndham Championship)
• Stephan Jaeger (10th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.16) – Low Opening Round – 65 (Mexico Open)
• Wyndham Clark (14th overall in 2022/23 - Scoring Average 69.22) - Low Opening Round - 64 (U.S. Open)
• Dylan Wu (14th overall in 2022/23 – Scoring Average 69.22) – Low Opening Round – 63 (Bermuda Championship)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1?

65 has been the score required to lead after round 1 here in each of the three renewals held at Memorial Park. I think it goes one lower this week with softer conditions in March, so a 64 would be my target this week.

The Favorites in the First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2024 Houston Open.

• Scottie Scheffler (+1200)
• Wyndham Clark (+2800)
• Sahith Theegala (+3500)
• Will Zalatoris (+3500)
• Tony Finau (+4000)
• Jason Day (+4500)

2024 Houston Open First Round Leader Picks

Here are my first round leader picks for the Houston Open this week.

Andrew Novak +8000 (FanDuel)

Andrew Novak has been playing very well of late, and this looks like a good event for him to start fast in on Thursday.

Novak hasn't played here, but he has finished 8th and 15th at the Mexico Open, which I think correlates to success here. He's also finished 9th at the Valero Texas Open and 5th at the Veritex Bank Championship on the Korn Ferry Tour, both of which are played in the Lone Star State.

The Veritex might be a good pointer considering Tyson Alexander finished 2nd behind Tony Finau here last time and he was the back-to-back winner of the Veritex.

Novak's ball striking has been excellent so far, and he's consistently featured on the first page of the leaderboard this season, so I think we take a shot on him, given his early tee time.

Chandler Phillips +10000 (bet365)

Chandler Phillips has made an encouraging start to his PGA Tour career, with top finishes at the American Express (63-66 weekend), the Mexico Open where he finished 24th, and last week where he finished 3rd at the Valspar.

Phillips the 36-hole leader last week and was right in the mix, sitting just three back of Keith Mitchell on Sunday.

The Texan has lent on impressive iron play this season and he's going to need it here at the Houston Open to contend, which I think he can for one round at least.

Phillips ranks 36th in Birdie or Better Percentage and 44th in Round 1 Scoring, which is solid enough for someone playing in his home state.

I am confident there is a link between the Mexico Open and the Houston Open, and Phillips made 26 birdies in Mexico en route to a 24th-place finish. Until last week, that was his best finish of the season, and I love how he's been playing in his rookie season.

As a local who grew up in Huntsville, Texas, and attended Texas A&M University, Phillips should be right at home. Add that Mexico Open showing to his 5th place finish on the Veritex Bank Championship, and I am confident he can perform at home, at least for one round.

Rico Hoey +11000 (bet365)

I backed Rico Hoey in this market last week at 200-1 and he played well enough to warrant my confidence again.

Hoey now ranks 4th in Round 1 Scoring Average, and his 67 last week, which saw him end the round in 6th place was the latest in a long line of fast starts.

Hoey opened with a 63 at the Amex, a 68 at Torrey Pines, and he also shot a second-round 66 in the Cognizant Classic. Now add his opening round of 65 to lead in Puerto Rico, and I think we are looking at a new Thursday specialist.

Ranking 11th in SG Off the Tee and 34th in SG Approach, Hoey has the perfect blend of skills here, and I love the fact he finished 3rd at the Veritex Bank Championship, which I like as a link.

I am not convinced he is ready to win just yet, but he is capable of going low in Round 1, as he has shown on multiple occasions in 2024.

Cole Hammer +19000 (bet365)

Cole Hammer has long been touted as a future star in Golf, and in his last four starts on the Korn Ferry Tour, he's finished 27th, 6th, 10th, and 26th, so he's finding form.

He's already opened with a 62 at the Astara Golf Championship this season and he played well here in 2022, finishing 27th.

Hammer shot a second-round 65 here two years ago and his final-round 68 was also one of the better rounds of the day, so in two of the four rounds, he showed signs of life close to home.

A Houston resident who went to the University of Texas, Hammer will be more than comfortable playing here, and now he's finding his feet on the Korn Ferry Tour, and that could lead to a quick start here.

As an early starter, I could Hammer making a confident start to the Houston Open, despite his relative inexperience.

Let's not forget Hammer was the best amateur in the world in 2019, winning the Mark H. McCormack Medal, an award Jon Rahm, Matt Fitzpatrick, Joaquin Niemann, and Patrick Cantlay among others have won.