Valero Texas Open Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Ludvig Aberg, Maverick McNealy Impress in San Antonio?
The PGA Tour stays in Texas this week for the Valero Texas Open. Can Ludvig Aberg, Maverick McNealy impress in San Antonio? Andy Lack provides his Valero Texas Open betting picks and predictions.
Andy Lack - April 1, 2024, 9:35 AM EDT
5 minValero Texas Open Betting Picks and Predictions: Can Ludvig Aberg, Maverick McNealy Impress in San Antonio?
The PGA Tour stays in Texas this week for the Valero Texas Open, one of the longest running tournaments on the PGA Tour. The event dates all the way back to 1922, and it has been played in the greater San Antonio area since its inception. The Valero is the longest-held PGA Tour event in the same city, and while it has moved around multiple venues over the years, we have been coming to TPC San Antonio since 2009. In 2019, the tournament also moved to early April and became a regular FedEx Cup event.
For the past four years, it has been played the week before the Masters, and this will be our look at some of the PGA Tour’s best players before they tee it up at Augusta National. Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth, Ludvig Aberg, Max Homa, Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Brian Harman, Hideki Matsuyama, and defending champion, Corey Conners, headline the field, and it will be fascinating to assess the state of their games as we head into the season’s first major.
DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: April 4 - 7, 2024
- Where: San Antonio, TX
- Where to Watch: Golf Channel, NBC, Peacock
Valero Texas Open: Course Preview
TPC San Antonio
TPC San Antonio was designed in 2010 by Greg Norman, and it provides a fairly standardized test for modern professional golfers. The course is by no means a birdie fest or putting contest, and each of the last eight years, it has played right around middle of the pack to slightly harder in scoring difficulty. While an easier golf course than Memorial Park on paper, TPC San Antonio provides a similarly balanced test that will challenge all aspects of a golfer's game. Wind is always part of the equation as well in Texas, and it will be necessary to pay attention to weather reports to hone in on the most accurate course conditions.
While measuring over 7,400 yards in length, TPC San Antonio does not play as long as the scorecard suggests, and we have seen a long history of shorter hitters finding success here. A major reason is that we generally see firm and fast fairways coupled with often over-watered, receptive greens. Driving distance certainly ranks above Tour average, but there is a lot of visual intimidation off the tee. While there is barely any water on the course, there are many ways in which a player can find himself in significant trouble.
In terms of the actual course layout, the four par threes provide a stern test, all measuring between 171 and 241 yards and all playing over par. TPC San Antonio features a nice mix of stout par fours as well. Outside of the drivable 17th hole, the other nine par fours all measure between 401 and 481 yards. There are five par fours that measure above 445 yards, and they make up five of the six toughest holes on the course. The par fives provide little respite as well, ranking as some of the longest and toughest three-shotters. Three out of the four par fives measure over 590 yards and are not necessarily reachable by all players. Each of the last eight years, they have ranked inside the top eight toughest par fives on the PGA Tour.
Ultimately, TPC San Antonio is a standard mid-scoring affair that will play right around Tour average in benign conditions, and certainly tougher than Tour average in blustery conditions. Players need not possess elite distance or accuracy off the tee, but the primary concern is keeping the ball in play and avoiding the non-rough hazards. Overall approach play is key, and since the course still features a lower-than-average greens in regulation percentage, short game, and particularly bunker play, will be of upmost importance. While over-seeded Bermuda is an easy surface to putt on, TPC San Antonio features large, undulating greens, and lag putting remains an essential skill as well.
Valero Texas Open Key Stats
- Good Drive Percentage
- Par 5 Birdie or Better Percentage
- Sand Save Percentage
Houston Open: Outright Picks
Ludvig Aberg +1600 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
It’s no longer a hot take that Ludvig Aberg is on the precipice of something special, and coming off an eight-place finish at the Players Championship where he gained four strokes off the tee and 5.8 strokes on approach, the young Swede continues to improve by the week. Aberg has now recorded five top-25 finishes in a row, and he is coming off his best ball-striking performance of the season, against an elite field at the Players, nonetheless. Aberg now returns to Texas where he went to college for the first time as a professional, and he has already seen TPC San Antonio before as an amateur in 2022.
The Greg Norman design should be an ideal fit for Aberg’s game, as he is a powerful driver, a great long iron player, par five scorer, and possesses an incredibly underrated short game as well. While many of the better players in this field will have their eyes on Augusta, ignorance may prove to be bliss for Aberg, as it should be much easier to focus on the task at hand this week. While already a victor this Fall at the RSM Classic, Aberg is still looking to announce himself as a budding superstar on the PGA Tour, and TPC San Antonio remains a perfect venue for the 24-year-old’s coming out party.
Maverick McNealy +7000 Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
After facing some major injury setbacks, Maverick McNealy is starting to play some excellent golf of late. The California native has recorded top-10s this season at both the Players Championship and Waste Management Phoenix Open, which both featured similar agronomy to what we will see this week at TPC San Antonio. McNealy remains one of the best over-seeded Bermuda putters in this entire field, and he is beginning to drive the ball incredibly well too.
McNealy is coming off a ho-hum 45th at the Valspar Championship where he gained 2.7 strokes off the tee and fell victim to a flukey around the green performance, which is usually a strength of his game. The Stanford grad now returns to a golf course where he gained over eight strokes ball-striking in his prior appearance, and this feels the ideal breakthrough spot for a player long over-due to record his first PGA Tour victory.
GOLF ODDS
