Sony Open Picks and Predictions: Bet on Harry Hall in the First Round Leader Market

This week, the 2026 PGA Tour season gets underway, not at Kapalua, where they usually start with The Sentry, but at the Sony Open at Waialae Country Club.

A strong field has assembled for the season opener, with former winners Russell Henley, Hideki Matsuyama, and Si Woo Kim among the favorites.

If you want to get one of the favorites onside this week, but don't want to take them at short odds, then the First Round Leader market might be the way to go, as Russell Henley is +2800, as opposed to the +1100 he is in the outright market.

Waialae Country Club is one of the most recognizable courses on the PGA Tour, so we tend to know what it takes to go low here, and that is pinpoint accuracy, with positional play more important than distance. That's a rarity in this day and age, but it is still certainly true here.

2026 Sony Open First Round Leader Strategy: Former First Round Leaders Help Identify Trends

Let's look at the last five renewals of the Sony Open to see if we can spot any trends that can help us cash a ticket in the First Round Leader market. We will look at the score required to lead here on day 1, as well as the time they teed off and from what tee.

2025 - Harry Hall (7:50 am #1 Tee), Adam Schenk (8:00 am #1 Tee), Eric Cole (8:30 am #10 Tee), Denny McCarthy (8:30 am #10 Tee), Paul Peterson (9:00 am #1 Tee), Tom Hoge (12:50 pm #1 Tee) - 64

2024 - Cam Davis (1:00 pm #1 Tee) - 62

2023 - Chris Kirk (7:30 am #10 Tee), Jordan Spieth (8:00 am #10 Tee), Taylor Montgomery (1:10 pm #1 Tee) - 64

2022 - Kevin Na (12:50 pm #1 Tee) - 61

2021 - Peter Malnati (7:20 am #10 Tee), Jason Kokrak (12:30 pm #10 Tee), Joaquin Niemann (12:40 pm #1 Tee) - 62

Over the last five years, 14 players have led or co-led after round 1 of the Sony Open. 8 of them teed off from the 1st tee, with 6 starting their rounds from the 10th.

Of the 14 players to lead or co-lead here after round 1 these past five years, 8 of them have teed off in the morning, with 6 of them teeing off in the afternoon.

By the numbers, it has been advantageous to tee off in the morning and start your round on the 1st tee. The only thing to consider is that five of the six players who co-led after round 1 last year teed off in the morning and from the 1st tee. This means the data is slightly skewed by last year's huge co-lead. In 2021, 2 of the 3 leaders teed off in the afternoon and from the 10th tee, in 2022, Kevin Na teed off in the afternoon, and in 2023 and 2024, the leader or one of the co-leaders teed off in the afternoon.

There is not enough bias to suggest we look at one wave or another based on the trends data, so it is best that you check the weather for the best tee time. Wind can be a huge factor at this course, so picking the wave where that will be less of a factor could be the difference maker.

You have had to shoot 64 or better in each of the five years to lead here, with 62 twice being the required score, and a 61 the lowest in 2022. This suggests you are looking for a player who is capable of shooting a 63 or better to feel confident of getting in the mix here.

Weather Forecast for the 2026 Sony Open

Gusts pick up later on in the afternoon, so a really early tee time may well be beneficial this week. Given the historical data, though, I will split my picks between both waves.

Who are the Fastest Starters in the Sony Open Field This Year?

Here are the 5 fastest starters in the field based on their Round 1 Scoring Average during the 2025 PGA Tour Season

• Harry Hall (3rd overall in 2025 - Scoring Average 68.24 - Low Opening Round - 64 - (Sony Open, Mexico Open, FedEx St Jude Championship)
• Keith Mitchell (4th overall in 2025– Scoring Average 68.29) – Low Opening Round – 61 (Truist Championship)
• Ben Griffin (5th overall in 2025 – Scoring Average 68.66) – Low Opening Round – 64 (Procore Championship)
• Pierceson Coody (7th overall in 2025 – Scoring Average 68.73) – Low Opening Round – 65 (3M Open)
• Rico Hoey (9th overall in 2025 - Scoring Average 68.76) - Low Opening Round - 62 (RSM Classic)

What Score is Required to Lead After Round 1 of the Sony Open?

Over the past five years, we have seen a 61, two 62s, and two 64s. That means the average leading score in the first round of the Sony Open the past five years has been 62.6. We are aiming for a 63 to be in the hunt, with the knowledge that a 62 may well be required.

The Favorites in the Sony Open First Round Leader Market This Week

Here are the favorites in the First Round Leader market at the 2026 Sony Open:

• Russell Henley (+3000)
• Hideki Matsuyama (+3000)
• Keegan Bradley (+3500)
• Ben Griffin (+3500)
• Maverick McNealy, J.J Spaun, Robert MacIntyre, Collin Morikawa, Si Woo Kim (+4000)

2026 Sony Open First Round Leader Picks

Here are my First Round Leader Selections for the 2026 Sony Open, as we look to kick off the new season with a bang.

Harry Hall +5500 (DraftKings)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2025 - 68.24 (3rd on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 68-70-68-74-67
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 7-23-20-127-40
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 25.83% (3rd on the PGA Tour)

Harry Hall enjoyed a breakout season in 2025, and while he wasn't able to add to his 2024 win at the ISCO Championship, he certainly put himself on the radar for bigger things in the coming years.

His level of consistency last year meant his name was circulated for the Ryder Cup team, and while it always felt a bit of a stretch that he would make Team Europe, the fact that he was even mentioned shows how far he has come in the past two seasons.

Don't let his last few results fool you; he was burned out, chasing a Ryder Cup spot in Europe, where he doesn't typically play. Despite being an Englishman, he is far more comfortable on the PGA Tour, having attended UNLV, and always playing his golf in the US since graduating.

Eight times since the start of 2023, Harry Hall has found himself inside the top 5 after round 1 of a PGA Tour event, three times holding at least a share of the lead. Twice in 2025, he put himself in front on day one, first when co-leading this event last January, and then again in Mexico a month later. This consistent ability to start fast is certainly eye-catching, as is the fact that he ranked 3rd for both Birdie or Better Percentage and Round 1 Scoring Average last year.

In three starts at the Sony Open, Hall has finished 28th, 42nd, and 10th, and he's been placed 11th, 29th, and 1st after round 1 in those efforts. This is clearly a course he enjoys, and one he rocks up to on a Thursday, ready to go low on.

Two rounds of 66 on debut, and rounds of 64 and 65 on his last visit, Hall has shown an ability to find low rounds here, and he's now got the experience under his belt he needs to hold the outright lead here on day one.

Hall starts at 7:54 am on Thursday from the 1st tee.

Chris Kirk +5500 (FanDuel)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2025 - 70.00 (81st on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 73-64-66-68-70
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 70-7-19-20-88
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 24.50% (14th on the PGA Tour)

One from the afternoon wave then, and it's another player who loves the Sony Open, and who has done us a favor in the past, and that is Chris Kirk.

Kirk co-led here after round 1 three years ago, and that was one of three occasions in the past five years where he has sat inside the top 10 after the first round of this event.

His course form shows five top 10 finishes, four of which were top 5 finishes, and it's really quite a surprise at this point that he's not lifted the trophy. In 2021, Kirk shot four successive rounds of 65 here, and that still wasn't enough to win, finishing 2nd and one shot behind the impressive Kevin Na. That was the second time he had finished runner-up here, losing out to Jimmy Walker by a stroke in 2017 as well.

He's come close to lifting the trophy here on multiple occasions, and he's twice co-led after round 1 (2018, 2023), so there is every chance he gets off to a fast start here, after a strong end to 2025.

In Kirk's last five events, he has finished 14th, 5th, 9th, and 41st, and while it's been a mixed bag in terms of how fast he has started, he has certainly shown some fantastic overall form. This, coupled with the fact that he loves this golf course, makes Kirk an enticing bet at generous odds.

Kirk starts at 12:24 pm on Thursday from the 10th tee.

Rico Hoey +6000 (DraftKings)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2025 - 68.76 (9th on the PGA Tour)
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 68-68-69-72-62
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 4-24-44-58-1
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - 24.50% (14th on the PGA Tour)

A First Round Leader wizard, Rico Hoey has now led after round 1 in three tournaments in the past two seasons, and has been inside the top 5 on nine occasions in total. He is so often in the mix after round 1 that he should always be considered, especially at a course he's gone low at before.

On the face of it, course form of MC-MC-59 looks rather dismal for Hoey, but a second round 64 last year shows he has the ability to go low if the conditions are right and he's in good form, which he is.

4th, 2nd, 21st, 22nd, and 7th in his past five starts, Hoey ended 2025 in fine fashion, and twice he started the week off quickly, sitting 4th after round 1 of the Baycurrent Classic, and leading the way at the RSM Classic, after shooting a ten-under 62 to tie Doug Ghim and Davis Thompson for the lead.

A top 15 player in both Birdie or Better Percentage (14th) and Round 1 Scoring Average (9th), Rico Hoey is a fantastic fit for this market, and I believe the second round 64 here last year is far more indicative of his current ability than his past efforts when a lesser player.

Hoey starts at 8:16 am on Thursday from the 1st tee.

Haotong Li +8000 (DraftKings)

• Round 1 Scoring Average in 2025 - N/A
• Last Five Round 1 Scores - 70-65-69-74-68
• Last Five Round 1 Finishing Positions - 60-1-36-46-5
• Birdie or Better Percentage in 2024 - N/A

Haotong Li has made his way onto the PGA Tour for the first time after an excellent 2025 season on the DP World Tour. Li returned to the Winners' Circle last year after beating fellow graduate Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at the Qatar Masters.

Four years ago, Haotong made his second start in the Sony Open, finishing 12th, six years after missing the cut on debut as a 20-year-old. His most recent start here, albeit four years ago, is a much fairer reflection on what we can expect from the Chinese superstar, and while it feels like he's had to reinvent himself and is already in the second stage of his career, it's important to remember he is still just 30. With 4 DP World Tour wins and a handful of really promising starts in majors and WGC's, the future could still be bright for Li, especially now he's made it to the PGA Tour.

When he finished 12th here in 2022, Li opened with a round of 63 to sit in 4th place and followed it up with a 65 to sit in 2nd going into the weekend. Another 63 to open here would put him right in the mix for the first round lead, and given he recently led a DP World Tour event after round 1 and was in 5th place at the end of play Thursday in his latest event, he's got some recent fast starts under his belt as well.

Li has held 10 first-round leads in his career, seven of them being co-leads and three of them being outright on his own. Four times in 2025 alone, Li ended day one in 1st place, the latest as recently as October, so he's clearly got the knack for starting fast.

If he's going to hold onto his PGA Tour card this season, taking advantage of courses where he's played before will be key, and his 12th here in 2022 was his best finish in a regular PGA Tour event, so a fast start to the year here could well be the catalyst for success.

Haotong Li starts at 8:27 am on Thursday from the 1st tee.