PGA Championship Betting Picks, Odds, Course Preview and Prediction
The PGA Championship returns to Louisville, Kentucky this week. Andy Lack shares his PGA Championship betting picks, odds, course preview, and prediction. Don't miss out on these Golf picks.
Andy Lack - May 13, 2024, 9:45 AM EDT
10 minPGA Championship Betting Picks, Odds, Course Preview and Prediction
The PGA Championship returns to Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky, for its fourth PGA Championship. We last saw the Jack Nicklaus design at Rory McIlroy's most recent major championship victory in 2014, when he triumphed at -16 over Phil Mickelson and Rickie Fowler in the dark on a rain-soaked golf course. McIlroy returns this week to site of former glory on the heels of a victory at the Zurich Classic, and four-shot romp at the Wells Fargo Championship.
Undeniably playing his best golf of the season, will this finally be the week that McIlroy breaks his ten-year major drought? Scottie Scheffler will likely have something to say about that, as the reigning Masters champion enters another major as the betting favorite, less than a week removed from the birth of his first child. We would be remiss not to mention Brooks Koepka, who is also chasing history in his own right, looking to become just the 14th player to claim six major victories Coming off a win at LIV Singapore, all eyes will be on Koepka in his title defense.
On a more subdued note, Jordan Spieth also possesses a chance to complete the career Grand Slam, although questions about form make that accomplishment feel ever more unlikely. We haven't even mentioned the likes of Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Collin Morikawa, Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, or Ludvig Aberg, who all set up beautifully for Valhalla and are sure to provide relevant theatre as well. We are certainly in store for a memorable week in Louisville.
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP DATE, START TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: May 16 - 19, 2024
- Where: Louisville, KY
- Where to Watch: Golf Channel, NBC, Peacock
PGA CHAMPIONSHIP ODDS
- Winner: Scottie Scheffler (+450), Rory McIlroy +800, Brooks Koepka +1600
Click here for the latest PGA Championship odds
PGA Championship: Course Preview
Valhalla Golf Club
Valhalla Golf Club was designed in 1986 by Jack Nicklaus, and it hosted its first PGA Championship ten years later, when Mark Brooks defeated Kenny Perry in a one-hole playoff at 11-under par. The PGA Championship returned to Valhalla in 2000, when Tiger Woods defeated Bob May in another playoff, this time at -18 under par. Valhalla also hosted the 2008 Ryder Cup, which the U.S. won 16.5 to 11.5. In its three editions, we have seen winners of 18-under par, 16-under par, and 11-under par, which makes Valhalla one of the easiest PGA Championship venues in recent history. Yet some notable course changes have been executed in order to protect par and keep pace with technological advances over the last decade.
The course has been lengthened by over 150 yards, with new tee boxes on the first, eighth, 12th, 14th, and 18th holes. The fairways have also been re-laid with Zeon zoysia-grass, a surface that generally sustains rainfall better. The PGA of America has trended towards more challenging setups over the last five years, and four of the last five PGA champions have triumphed at single digits under par. While there is heavy rain in the forecast once again, the move to Zoysia-grass should have the golf course playing firmer and faster than what we saw in 2014.
Ultimately, I would expect a traditional PGA Championship setup that bears a striking resemblance to what we saw last year Oak Hill. Valhalla is a longer golf course than Oak Hill, but it also features an extra par five, and the green complexes at the Nicklaus design are larger and less undulating. The driving corridors at Valhalla are also wider, although not tremendously so, and while the rough will be thick, the penalty for missing two yards off the fairway versus 20 yards off the fairway will be similar.
This type of setup generally caters to powerful drivers of the ball, and any Jack Nicklaus golf course is certain to favor a fade as its predominant shot shape. Long iron play will also reign supreme, as players will face a second shot longer than 175 yards on upwards of 60% of the holes. I will primarily be looking for great total drivers of the ball, with a heavier emphasis on distance than accuracy, as well elite long iron players and those who have a proven track record of success at other long golf courses with thick rough such as Muirfield Village, Bethpage Black, Oak Hill, Bellerive, Olympia Fields, Torrey Pines, and Bay Hill, amongst others. While Valhalla is a touch easier than Oak Hill on paper, I would still expect a winner in the 10 to 13 under par range.
PGA Championship Key Stats
- Proximity 175 yards plus
- Total Driving
- Strokes Gained Total: Long Golf Courses with Thick Rough
PGA Championship: Outright Picks
Bryson DeChambeau (+2800) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
I have had Bryson DeChambeau penciled in to win the PGA Championship at Valhalla since last December, and after a contending performance at the Masters, I see zero reason to deviate. For what it's worth, Valhalla is an even stronger course fit for DeChambeau than Augusta was, and he should be able to turn his brain off this week and let his power do the talking. Even under a slimmer frame, Bryson remains of the longest hitters in this field, and his accuracy is an underrated strength as well. Bryson led the Masters in strokes gained off the tee, blending elite power with relative control, and I would expect a similar outcome this week on a golf course that even more heavily accentuates off-the-tee play.
Longer Bent-grass golf courses with thick-rough have always been Bryson's bread and butter, and he's had considerable success on both these setups and in this part of the country. The 2020 U.S. Open champion has won at Winged Foot, Muirfield Village, and Plainfield, and he also mixed in a top-five at Oak Hill last year, which are all long, Bent-grass golf courses with thicker rough. Bryson has also won at TPC Boston, TPC Deere Run, Detroit Golf Club and lost in a playoff at Caves Valley, further emphasizing his liking to Bent-grass. All players this week must be in viewed in the prism of whether they have the ceiling to go toe to toe with Scottie Scheffler, and after watching Bryson win a major by five on a similar setup, I do believe he is one of the few players I can answer with a resounding yes.
Joaquin Niemann (+4000) CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
While he may not get the headlines this week, Joaquin Niemann has been the best player on LIV all season, and I actually think the fact that he is coming in under the radar is to his benefit. The young Chilean is coming off a 7th at LIV Singapore on Zoysia-grass where he gained over eight strokes on approach, and in seven LIV starts this year, Niemann has recorded six top-10s and two wins. His ball-striking has been incredible all season, and his combination of power and accuracy off the tee should play beautifully at Valhalla. Prior to signing with LIV, Niemann always raised his baseline on Bent-grass greens, some of the best putting performances of his career have come at Muirfield Village, Winged Foot, Greenbrier, and Detroit Golf Club. Top-five finishes at the Memorial, BMW Championship, and a win at the Genesis show his meddle on longer, more difficult tracks, and I fully expect Niemann to rise to the occasion once again on a similar set-up.
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GOLF ODDS
