Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction, Betting Pick, Latest Champions League Odds for Play-Off Leg 2
Atalanta will host Borussia Dortmund in a crucial Champions League Round of 16 second leg at their home ground on February 25, 2026, at 5:45 PM UTC. The Italian side, currently ranked 15th in the tournament standings, face a stern test against 8th-placed Borussia Dortmund as they look to overturn a two-goal deficit from the first leg.
OC Staff - February 25, 2026, 8:30 AM EST
3 Minute ReadAtalanta vs Borussia Dortmund: Lineups, Team News and Prediction
Atalanta will host Borussia Dortmund in a crucial Champions League Round of 16 second leg at their home ground on February 25, 2026, at 5:45 PM UTC. The Italian side, currently ranked 15th in the tournament standings, face a stern test against 8th-placed Borussia Dortmund as they look to overturn a two-goal deficit from the first leg.
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Form
The home side comes into this fixture on the back of a 2-1 victory against Napoli in Serie A. Their form over the last six matches has been mixed, securing three wins, one draw, and two losses across all competitions. Notably, they suffered a 2-0 defeat in the first leg against Borussia Dortmund in this very competition, followed by a 2-0 away loss to Lazio in Serie A, before bouncing back with their recent win. This run also includes a dominant 3-0 Coppa Italia win over Juventus.
Borussia Dortmund's last outing saw them draw 2-2 away to RBL in the Bundesliga. The German giants have been in solid form recently, recording three wins, one draw, and two losses in their last six fixtures. Their victories include a commanding 4-0 home win against Mainz and a 2-0 first-leg triumph over Atalanta, showcasing their ability to perform on the big stage. However, they also experienced a 2-0 defeat against Inter in a previous Champions League fixture within this period.
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Head to Head
The most recent encounter between these two teams was the first leg of this Champions League tie, where Borussia Dortmund secured a comfortable 2-0 victory at home. Looking back at their previous meetings, including Europa League clashes and a Club Friendly, Borussia Dortmund have the slight edge. Out of four recorded matches, the German side has won two, Atalanta has won one, and one match ended in a draw. This suggests a historically tight contest, though Dortmund's recent form in this fixture gives them confidence.
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Atalanta vs. Dortmund Odds
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Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Probable Lineups
Atalanta (3-4-2-1):
- Goalkeeper: Carnesecchi
- Defenders: Scalvini, Hien, Kolasinac
- Midfielders: Zappacosta, De Roon, Pasalic, Bellanova
- Attacking Midfielders: Sulemana, Zalewski
- Forward: Krstovic
Borussia Dortmund (3-4-2-1):
- Goalkeeper: Kobel
- Defenders: Anton, Reggiani, Bensebaini
- Midfielders: Svensson, Bellingham, Nmecha, Ryerson
- Attacking Midfielders: Beier, Sabitzer
- Forward: Guirassy
Atalanta vs Borussia Dortmund Team News
Atalanta will be without two significant attacking players for this crucial second leg. Charles De Ketelaere is sidelined with a meniscus injury, and Giacomo Raspadori is also unavailable due to a muscle strain. These absences will undoubtedly narrow Atalanta’s options in the final third and place increased pressure on the remaining creative players to break down Dortmund’s defence.
Borussia Dortmund also arrive with defensive concerns. Emre Can is out with adductor pain, while Niklas Süle and Nico Schlotterbeck are unavailable. Filippo Mané also misses out. Despite these defensive setbacks, the German side's structure is expected to remain familiar, with a strong backline and wing-backs capable of both defensive solidity and attacking impetus.
Prediction: Atalanta 1-1 Borussia Dortmund
Atalanta return to their home ground needing a significant response after Borussia Dortmund’s early strike in the first leg set the tone for a defeat that never really loosened its grip. Serhou Guirassy scored inside three minutes, and Maximilian Beier doubled the advantage before half-time, leaving Dortmund with a two-goal cushion. Historically, Dortmund have successfully protected such leads, winning every European tie in which they’ve taken a two-goal advantage into the second leg, a statistic that weighs heavily on the psychological aspect of this match.
For Atalanta, the challenge is immense. They have overturned first-leg deficits before, but never when trailing by two goals. Furthermore, the Italian side is experiencing a Champions League goal drought, having not scored in their last 182 minutes in the competition, and are currently on a three-game losing streak in the tournament. However, their domestic form offers some encouragement, and the home advantage at New Balance Arena, a venue where they've built recent momentum, could be a factor.
The tie may well hinge on the crucial first goal. An early goal for Atalanta could ignite the crowd and potentially exploit any historical "Italian anxiety" Dortmund might have, coupled with their somewhat inconsistent away record in this competition. Conversely, if Borussia Dortmund manage to score first, the second leg could quickly turn into an exercise in damage limitation for the hosts. While Atalanta are expected to play with more intensity and edge at home, and may even win the night, the two-goal deficit, combined with Dortmund’s ability to score and calm the game, makes a full comeback for the Italian side difficult to envision. A hard-fought draw seems the most probable outcome on the night.
Best Bet: Both Teams to Score – Yes (-170) Check out the best odds on Caesars Sportsbook
Given the predicted 1-1 scoreline and the narrative surrounding both teams, 'Both Teams to Score – Yes' presents a valuable betting angle. Atalanta, despite their Champions League goal drought, will be pushing hard to overturn the deficit at home, creating attacking opportunities. Conversely, Borussia Dortmund, while holding a two-goal aggregate lead, have a strong incentive to score an away goal, which would significantly dampen Atalanta's hopes and effectively kill the tie. The German side's attacking prowess, highlighted by their counter-attacking threat and the form of players like Guirassy and Beier, suggests they are more than capable of finding the net even away from home.
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