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Tennis expert Mike Spector offers his best bets for Thursday's Men's Semifinal action at the Australian Open.
ANALYSIS

Matteo Berrettini vs. Rafael Nadal and Stefanos Tsitsipas vs. Daniil Medvedev: 2022 Men’s Australian Open Semifinal Predictions, Picks, Odds, and Best Bets

The Men's Australian Open semifinal matchups are set, and it is as much of a star-studded quartet as one could ask for in the absence of Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer. Four of the top seven seeds are still alive, and there are many interesting storylines abound with the remaining players. 

Matteo Berrettini and Stefanos Tsitsipas are searching for their first Grand Slam titles, while Rafael Nadal is looking to break a three-way tie with Djokovic and Federer for his 21st Grand Slam title, which would be the most all-time. In addition, Daniil Medvedev is looking to make history as the first Men's singles champion in the Open Era to win the next scheduled slam after winning their first Grand Slam title. 

We look at a total game over/under and take a flier on an outright upset with a moneyline wager on an underdog that presents value with tonight's picks. Let's dive into our best bets for Thursday's Semifinal Men's matches at the Australian Open.

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Matteo Berrettini vs. Rafael Nadal OVER 37.5 Games (-125) (Bet $125 to Win $100)

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Rafael Nadal knows his career will not last forever and that his chances of accruing Grand Slam titles in the future will be lesser than when he was in his prime. Thus, the pressure of securing his record 21st slam will be hanging over his head in this semifinal match.

Nadal and Berrettini have met in the semifinals of a Grand Slam before, as Nadal beat the Italian 7-6 (6), 6-4, 6-1 at the 2019 US Open. In that match, Nadal's serve was untouchable, winning 90% of his first serve points and 74% on his second serve. In addition, Berrettini never got a look at a break point, as 44 unforced errors ultimately did him in. Nadal constantly attacked Berrettini's backhand in that match, and the Italian will be forced to hit that shot a lot in this match.

Berrettini has seemingly learned a lot from that match as he advanced to at least the quarterfinal round in three of last year's four Grand Slams. He is capable of riding a powerful serve and forehand combination that could give Nadal fits in this match, just as Denis Shapovalov was able to do in their quarterfinal matchup. Nadal dealt with abdominal pain for much of the second half of his last match and used a prolonged medical timeout between the fourth and fifth sets, which arguably changed the match's momentum, to the Canadian's chagrin. While both players are coming off grueling five-set victories, each should benefit from the extra day off. 

Berrettini has won at least a set in each of his last 24 Grand Slam main draw matches. In addition, the over total match games line is 10-1 in Berrettini's last 11 Grand Slam main draw matches. Thus, we do not expect Nadal to cruise as easily against Berrettini as he did in the US Open and look for him to push one of the all-time greats in this match.

Stefanos Tsitsipas to beat Daniil Medvedev (+205) (Bet $100 to Win $205)

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While Nadal searches for his record 21st slam, Daniil Medvedev is the odds-on favorite entering the semifinals to win the Australian Open, with -120 moneyline odds (per DraftKings). However, Medvedev showed vulnerability in his quarterfinal match against Felix Auger-Aliassime. Medvedev got down in an early two sets to none hole and staved off a match point in the fourth set and eight other break points over the final three sets, en route to a comeback five-set victory.

Tsitsipas had some injury concerns entering this tournament, as he is still just two months removed from elbow surgery. However, his easy straight-set victory over Jannik Sinner in the quarterfinals suggests he is in top form. 

Tsitsipas knows what it takes to beat Medvedev, winning two of their last three matches, though never besting him on the hardcourt. Medvedev looked out of sorts too often for our liking in the quarterfinals, while Tsitsipas is coming off his best match. The Greek has made the semifinals on two other occasions at the Australian Open, but this is when he finally breaks through to the finals.

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Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

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