Daniil Medvedev vs. Miomir Kecmanovic, Cameron Norrie vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Prediction: ATP Los Cabos Open
Daniil Medvedev vs. Miomir Kecmanovic, Cameron Norrie vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Prediction: ATP Los Cabos Open
Weather late in Washington D.C. forced the suspension of several of Thursday's matches, which created a conundrum scheduling-wise for Friday's play. Thus, that seemed like a perfect time to segue to the ATP Los Cabos Open, where three of the world's top 12 men's players are in action in the semifinals.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Miomir Kecmanovic Prediction
When: August 5, 2022
Start Time: 9:30 pm ET
Daniil Medvedev vs. Miomir Kecmanovic Odds
Medvedev and Kecmanovic meet for the second time this summer, as the world No. 1 dominated on the clay at Roland Garros in a 6-2, 6-4, 6-2 victory. Nineteen of Medvedev's last 20 wins have been in straight sets, and with his massive -500 moneyline odds in this match, the odds would again suggest a straight-set victory is in order today.
Kecmanovic has worked off the rust from a long layoff since Wimbledon nicely with two straight-set victories of his own here. However, facing Medvedev is a considerable step up in class after dispatching Jordan Thompson and Brandon Nakashima.
Kecmanovic is 14-4 on hard courts this year and 98-61 over the last eight years. But Medvedev is 35-3 in his previous 38 ATP main draw matches on hard courts against younger opponents and has won the first set in all but three of his last 39 main draw matches on hard courts overall.
Kecmanovic is not in good enough form to handle the resistance he will get from Medvedev, and we expect this match to end quickly.
Daniil Medvedev vs. Miomir Kecmanovic Pick
- Daniil Medvedev -4.5 Games (+105) (Bet $100 to win $105)
Cameron Norrie vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Prediction
When: August 5, 2022
Start Time: 11:00 pm EDT
Cameron Norrie vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Odds
Compared to the Citi Open, where most matches are played earlier in the day, most of the Los Cabos matches have been played at night, leading to slower hard court surfaces. As a result, the hard court in Baja, CA, are some of the slowest you will find, and that suits Cameron Norrie's game to a tee, as evidenced by him winning the title in this event in 2021.
Norrie has not just won at this event but has absolutely dominated. Before yesterday's 6-3, 7-6 win over Radu Albot, Norrie's previous four matches at the event had seen 16 total games or fewer played. His draw with having to face Chun-Hsin Tseng in the match before has not been the most challenging road to get here, but he has shown he can beat elite talent here, like Taylor Fritz in last year's semifinal.
Felix Auger-Aliassime holds a 4-0 head-to-head advantage over Norrie, all of which have been played on hard court. However, only two of those matches were played outdoors, and Auger-Aliassime's most dominant victory (6-3, 6-2 in 2019) came when Norrie was still growing into his own.
The last three matches between these two have seen at least 22 games played, so we like the value that the over/under number of games presents. In addition, Norrie has covered the game spread in each of his last ten ATP semifinal matches, so that has us liking the value of his moneyline odds at plus-odds and for him to break through for his first win against the young Canadian.
Cameron Norrie vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime Pick
- Auger-Aliassime/Norrie OVER 22.5 Games (-140) (Bet $140 to win $100)
- Norrie ML (+105) (Bet $100 to win $105)
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