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Tonight’s final of the ATP Los Cabos Open pits world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev against No. 12 ranked and defending champion Cameron Norrie. Tennis expert Mike Spector weighs in with his best bets.
ANALYSIS

Daniil Medvedev vs. Cameron Norrie Prediction and Odds: ATP Los Cabos Open

Tonight’s final of the ATP Los Cabos Open pits world No. 1 Daniil Medvedev against No. 12 ranked and defending champion Cameron Norrie. Not only is Norrie looking for back-to-back titles at this event, but he is also in search of his third ATP title of the season. So will he pull a second consecutive upset here, or will Medvedev validate his top ranking once again? Tennis expert Mike Spector weighs in with his best bets.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Cameron Norrie Start Time and Odds

Start Time: 10:00 pm ET

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Daniil Medvedev vs. Cameron Norrie Prediction

Norrie is the defending champion in this event, but he was an underdog in his semifinal match against Felix Auger-Aliassime, namely because the Canadian had previously owned a 4-0 head-to-head advantage against him. However, Norrie’s three-set victory improved him to 11-2 in this event, as he even made the semifinals of this tournament when he made his debut in 2018. Norrie clearly prefers playing his matches at night at Los Cabos, as the slower hard-court surfaces suit his game well. Despite the slow surfaces, Norrie still served 17 aces against Auger-Aliassime, and he will need to win as many, if not more free points, to continue his success against Medvedev.

Medvedev recovered from a 1-4 deficit in the first set of his semifinal match against Miomir Kecmanovic to win a first-set tiebreak. It was clear that Medvedev broke the Serbian’s will in that comeback, not only winning the tiebreak 7-0 but cruising to an easy 6-1 second-set victory. With this being Medvedev’s fourth match in four days, getting off the court as quickly as possible was paramount. Thus, Medvedev has an advantage over Norrie coming into today having played much less tennis this week, as he has lost 18 total games in three straight-set victories.

Medvedev beat Norrie 6-3, 6-1 in their only head-to-head tour-level meeting in 2019 on the hard courts at Shanghai. This match should be more competitive, especially since Norrie has won nine consecutive ATP main draw matches in Mexico against younger opponents and covered the game spread in the last seven. However, we expect Medvedev to get off to a fast start, as he has won the first set in 24 of his previous 25 main draw hard-court matches against older opponents.

Provided that Norrie takes the first set to a tiebreak or even loses by at most two games, we expect him to be competitive enough to cover the +3.5 game spread for the match.

Daniil Medvedev vs. Cameron Norrie Picks

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Mike Spector brings unmatched knowledge and insight into the game of football, and more importantly the process of betting on NFL football. Mike is the #2 ranked expert in FantasyPros' NFL betting contest

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