Lamine Yamal to win the Ballon dOr odds have drifted out from 9/4 to a best price of 5/1 with Paddy Power, as three of 15 bookmakers ease their odds.
The odds on Lamine Yamal to win the Ballon d'Or have drifted out from 9/4 to 5/1 with Paddy Power, and the market could hardly be clearer: this is now Harry Kane's award to lose.
Harry Kane leads the betting at a best price of 1/3 with Skybet, leaving Lamine Yamal a distant second-shortest.
With three of 15 bookmakers easing their odds, the drift on Lamine Yamal is not one firm acting on its own.
Kane edged Lamine Yamal by 25 points (3,962 to 3,937) at the top of Marca's Los 100 ranking.
The race reaches its formal end at the Ballon d'Or ceremony at the London Palladium.
Kane's case is built on goals, plain and simple. He won the European Golden Shoe and a domestic double with Bayern Munich across the 2025/26 campaign, and that kind of output in front of goal is very hard to argue against when the votes are counted. On 23 October 2026 he then edged Lamine Yamal for top spot in Marca's Los 100 ranking, by the narrowest of margins. It was a tight verdict, but it went the right way for anyone already holding a Kane ticket, and it tells you which way the wind is blowing around the award.
Lamine Yamal's season was hardly a write-off. He guided Barcelona to the La Liga title and then helped win the World Cup in July 2026, a CV most players would happily swap their boots for. The direct catalyst for the drift is unconfirmed, although it arrives on the back of Kane finishing above him in that Marca ranking. Our reading is simple: bookmakers have stopped treating this as a genuine two-man shootout, and the odds on Lamine Yamal have eased to reflect a forward chasing the race rather than leading it.
Ballon dOr Win Market odds
Best odds on Lamine Yamal are 5/1 with Paddy Power, worst 3/1 with Betfred. Spreadex and Sporting Index match that top price, so shopping around is worth the effort on this one.
Last updated: 24 October 2026, 09:09 UK time
Odds below are live and may have changed since publishing this article.
Who is favourite to win the Ballon d'Or: Harry Kane or Lamine Yamal?
Harry Kane heads the Ballon d'Or odds as the clear favourite at a best price of 1/3 with Skybet. Lamine Yamal is second-shortest at 5/1 with Paddy Power, and nobody else gets close to the top two. Kylian Mbappe, who finished third behind both of them in Marca's ranking, completes the leading trio, while Lionel Messi is priced as a genuine outsider. The shape of the market mirrors that ranking almost exactly, which is no surprise.
Harry Kane – 1/3 with Skybet. Golden Shoe winner and top of Marca's Los 100.
Lamine Yamal – 5/1 with Paddy Power. Silverware-heavy season, but drifting.
Kylian Mbappe – 10/1 with Bet Victor. Third in Marca's ranking.
Lionel Messi – 40/1 with Sporting Index. A long way off the pace.
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What does Lamine Yamal need to do to win the Ballon d'Or?
Frankly, the hard work is already done. His case rests on a league title and a World Cup winner's medal, and the ceremony at the London Palladium brings the race to a formal close, so there are no more outings left to sway anyone. For Lamine Yamal to win the Ballon d'Or, the voters would have to put trophies ahead of Kane's goals, and the drift tells you the market does not see it going that way. Kane at the head of the betting offers very little return for the outlay, which is the price of being the clear favourite. The 5/1 with Paddy Power on Lamine Yamal is only for those convinced a World Cup outweighs a Golden Shoe. We side with the market here: Kane's goals are the strongest argument in this race, and the drift on his nearest rival backs that up.
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