For his second Irish View column for the Cheltenham Festival 2023, Johnny Ward discusses racing’s climate change challenge and his NRNB pick for the Ballymore.
The “frightening” global warming challenge for racing
It was barely reported at the time but just over three months after the end of the 2022 Cheltenham Festival, the British Horseracing Authority published a report on the future of the sport with regard to climate change.
Global warming is far more frightening than it sounds and it's fair to say the state of the grass at a racecourse is not high on the list of priorities but the summer that followed, the autumn a second summer, was a nightmare for racecourse managers.
In late July of 2018, Bath had endured around two months straight of "no measurable rain"; 31 horses were declared for an entire meeting there. Last summer, also in late July, two of its meetings were simply moved to the all-weather.
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Bath can't water. What is frightening for those racecourses who can is that, as recently as late last year, ministers conceded that England could be in drought beyond this spring 2023, after record low rainfall left the country short on water.
Some racecourses are already unable to access the water once available to them. The scatter of cancellations late in the year was a nuisance too and even Cheltenham had climate-related scars in 2022: more than 20mm of rain unexpectedly fell on day two of last year’s festival, turning the going heavy. Clerk of the course Jon Pullin had added 5mm of water to the course after the first day of racing due to quickening conditions and a mixed forecast.
I've no idea if warmer winters are to blame for the spate of low sun-related incidences in Irish racing this winter but I can't find anyone who can recall it being such a persistent issue before. It's becoming ridiculous and what's alarming is that nobody can seem to come up with a solution.
The impact on Ireland’s festive racing calendar
Either side of Christmas, one of the biggest hurdle races on the calendar (Matheson Hurdle) and Naas' sole Grade 1 (Lawlor’s Of Naas Novice Hurdle) were far from satisfactory spectacles.
It was farcical at Naas, with both of the hurdles in the straight not jumped at all on either circuit, such that when commentator Jerry Hannon announced that they were "over the second-last, with less than three-quarter miles to go", he did so without any irony.
December 20 was just another day of omitted hurdles, with Impaire Et Passe winning at Naas in what was a cross between a maiden hurdle and a bumper, no hurdles jumped in the straight.
As they went around the omitted final hurdle, the long-odds-on favourite only held a slim lead over a big field; at the line that lead was 18 lengths and he was far from extended.
In truth, there were better maiden hurdles run in Ireland this season and we are guessing a little how he will jump under duress but it was still a hugely impressive performance and the fact he was sent off 4/7 to beat 23 horses having not jumped a hurdle (or an omitted one) in public implies he is held in really high esteem at Willie Mullins' yard.
Mullins continues to benefit from expanded Cheltenham
Mullins, of course, has one of the talking horses of the era in Facile Vega. He may even go chasing next season and perhaps step up in trip in due course but at this point it seems almost certain he will run in the Sky Bet Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
Mullins has benefited more than anyone from the expanded Cheltenham. It is hard to believe that both Galopin Des Champs and State Man won handicap hurdles at the Festival and he's a hard man to second-guess when it comes to plans, often because he hasn't made one yet.
My 6/1 ante-post play for the Ballymore
Impaire Et Passe did not have an entry in Naas' big one; it might have seemed a better race for him distance-wise than Sunday's Moscow Flyer, a Grade 2 for which he looks liable to go off even shorter than he did last month.
It does, however, imply that he's very unlikely to run in the Albert Bartlett. As such, there's a chance he may run in the Supreme (and could be nice each-way value without his stablemate, non-runner no bet) but it's more likely he goes for the Baring Bingham Novices' Hurdle, or Ballymore to you and I.
If Ireland takes the race in March, the British trainers will have won one of the last 10 renewals. That's remarkable and, while one wouldn't read too much into that, it does create some doubt about the hot favourite, Hermes Allen.
The Newbury-bound Gaelic Warrior and Champ Kiely, both stablemates of Impaire Et Pass, are potential rivals on the day, though I'd rate it really unlikely both take him on. Irish Point seems safely held on Naas form by Champ Kiely, though the latter had a fairly soft time of it up front that day.
Mullins commented after Impaire Et Passe's rout at the same venue that the horse was "very much one to look forward to", which is notable as the depth of talent he has is staggering at the moment.
He should win easily on Sunday and as much as it is rather annoying William Hill (understandably) trimmed his Cheltenham odds a point on Thursday, the 6/1 available non-runner, no-bet still appeal plenty.
What else can we learn from this week?
Other things of note this week include the revelation that A Plus Tard will not be running in the Paddy Power Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown,
Meanwhile, Saturday's Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle will be fascinating with a view to Green Glory's Martin Pipe prospects (10/1 non-runner, no bet) come the Cotswolds (if they can make the boat in the bad weather). No doubt Charles Byrnes would love to help talented son Philip to a Cheltenham winner!
Johnny's weekly Irish View column will become exclusively available to signed up oddschecker users in the build up to the Cheltenham Festival as part of our Super Service. Look out for more information on site next week, but in the meantime you can sign up to oddschecker for free here.
