How many Conservative seats will be lost according to latest betting odds?

How many Conservative seats will be lost according to latest betting odds?

How many seats will the Conservative party lose in the 2024 General Election?

On May 22nd, incumbent Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, ended months of speculation by announcing that the forthcoming General Election will take place on Thursday July 4th 2024.

It’s a bold move by the normally cautious Sunak, but political commentators suggest he has gone for July as the ‘best of a bad bunch’ option. 

Despite recent economic growth and a downturn in inflation, the infected blood and Post Office scandals hang heavy over Sunak’s recent reign, and the small boat crisis still continues to cause friction. Plus, a poor pre-election budget could also be disastrous. 

Conservative Seats Lost

How many seats are the Conservatives expected to lose?

The Conservatives are in serious disarray and look set to end their 14-year stay at 10 Downing Street. The odds are literally stacked against Sunak, but just how bad could it get?

The Conservatives currently hold 344 seats, a 21-seat downturn on their election victory in 2019 due to various by-elections and experts expect that number to tumble even further in July. 

With Labour looking strong, and other parties making ground, the Conservatives are 10/3 (Paddy Power) to lose 151-200 seats, 7/1 to lose 101-150 seats, and a staggering 2/5 to lose 201+ seats.

Election Polls 

The polls have made horrific reading for the Conservatives for a year now, and the latest data has Labour at 44.2% of the vote, with Sunak’s charges at nearly half of that at 22.9%. 

Meanwhile, Reform UK stand at 11.4% and the Lib Dems at 9.8%. 

With that in mind, Labour are currently priced at 1/7 (Betfred) to have an overall majority and win the election, while the Conservatives 25/1 (Unibet). 

However, with campaigns only just beginning, nothing is certain for the Labour Party and Sir Keir Starmer. At 13/2 (Bet Goodwin) there is a realistic chance of no overall majority, in which case Labour would not have enough seats to form a majority government.

In that eventuality they would need to rely on other parties to form a coalition, with the Lib Dems the likely partnership. A Labour-Lib Dem Coalition is currently priced at 16/1, but that could tumble should Starmer conduct a calamitous campaign.

And, with the Lib Dems and Reform UK showing decent returns in the polls, could they take away even more Conservative, and potentially Labour, seats? 

Which other parties will profit from the Conservatives seat losses?

The market suggests that Ed Davey’s Lib Dems could be the big winners, and they are currently 1/9 (William Hill) to win 30+ seats. 

But, if you’re looking for a strong bet, look no further than Reform UK, formerly the Brexit Party, who are led by Richard Tice and house Nigel Farage as honorary president. 

Their current 11.4% poll share is higher than the Lib Dems 9.8%, and they could swallow up dissatisfied Conservative voters with their strong views on election defining issues such as immigration. 

Reform UK already have a single seat in the Commons, and are 4/1 to retain that seat.

Other odds for Reform seats range from 9/1 for 5+ to 100/1 for 25+, and a whole host of other options in between on William Hill.

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