Next Conservative Leader Odds: Who is favourite after the Party Conference?

Next Conservative Leader Odds: Who is favourite after the Party Conference?

There is a clear favourite with the bookmakers to replace Rishi Sunak at the close of the Conservative Party Conference 2024.

The Conservative leadership contest has intensified this week after candidates made their case at the party’s four-day conference in Birmingham.

Robert Jenrick, James Cleverly, Kemi Badenoch and Tom Tugendhat remain in the race to replace Rishi Sunak and become the next Tory leader. 

Each given their chance to speak, Jenrick took a hard stance on immigration and Cleverly focused on uniting the party with optimism, while Badenoch emphasised the need to defend traditional Conservative values and Tugendhat promised a fresh start.

Priti Patel and Mel Stride have already been eliminated from the process having failed to secure enough support in the previous rounds of voting.

In the last round Jenrick received 33 votes, Badenoch garnered 28 votes, while Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat picked up 21 votes apiece.

The contest will ultimately be decided through a two-round voting process: MPs will narrow the field to two candidates on 9th and 10th October, followed by a ballot among party members to determine the new leader on 2nd November.

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Odds for next Tory Leader - what happened this week?

Tuesday saw one of the most significant movements in the race so far, as support for Cleverly soared in just a few hours, taking him from 10/1 into 7/2 with bet365 having taken more than 40% of all the bets placed on the market through oddschecker.

The odds for Jenrick have remained pretty stable over the course of the week despite some backlash over his recent SAS comments. He claimed that special forces are “killing rather than capturing” terrorists for fear of detainees being released under European human rights law.

Of the three market leaders it was Badenoch who endured the bumpiest Party Conference having become embroiled in a row over maternity pay. She was as short as 6/4 with one bookmaker coming in but ends the week a best price 6/1 (shortest 4/1). 

Who is favourite to be next Tory leader?

Robert Jenrick remains the favourite to become the next Tory Leader at a best price of 4/5 on Quinn Bet (implied 56% chance) and shortest price 8/13.

James Cleverly is the second favourite at 7/2 (shortest 7/4), while Kemi Badenoch is 6/1 on BetGoodwin and Tom Tugendhat is the big outsider at 33/1 on BetVictor.

Next Conservative Leader Odds

Candidate Best Odds Implied Probability
Robert Jenrick 4/5 56%
James Cleverly 7/2 22%
Kemi Badenoch 6/1 14%
Tom Tugendhat 33/1 3%
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