Who is favourite to win ahead of semi-final 2 tonight?
The road to Saturday’s Eurovision Grand Final is heating up.
Following a dramatic first Semi-final, where ten acts secured their place in Basel’s big night, all eyes now turn to Semi-final 2 - airing live tonight from St. Jakobshalle at 20:00 BST.
Sixteen countries will take the stage, but only ten can join the Grand Final line-up.
Tuesday’s Semi-final 1 saw standout performances from the likes of Iceland, Ukraine, and Portugal, but it was Claude from the Netherlands who emerged as the biggest story of the night.
His upbeat entry “C’est la vie” has surged in the betting markets and now sits as the third favourite to win the entire contest.
Another name to watch is Estonia’s Tommy Cash. His performance made waves online, generating significant YouTube buzz and lifting Estonia into the top ten favourites. With a strong televote anticipated, he could be a dark horse heading into Saturday.
The following 10 countries qualified from semi-final 1: Iceland, Poland, Estonia, Ukraine, Sweden, Portugal, Norway, San Marino, Albania and Netherlands.
Tonight’s second Semi-final will complete the Grand Final line-up and the final ten qualifiers will be revealed after all 16 acts perform, before the spotlight turns fully toward Saturday’s showdown.
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Eurovision Odds
| Country | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Sweden | 6/5 | 13% |
| Austria | 14/5 | 13% |
| Netherlands | 11/1 | 13% |
| France | 14/1 | 10% |
| Israel | 22/1 | 10% |
Who is favourite to win Eurovision 2025?
Four of the 10 favourites to win will compete tonight with Austria, Finland, France and Israel set to take centre stage at St. Jakobshalle.
They face the tough task of knocking Sweden's KJA off the top spot however.
Sam Eaton’s headline selection, Sweden are a best price of 6/5 with AKBets - holding onto their status as favourites after performing on Tuesday night.
They topped both the Eurovisionworld poll and oddschecker’s betting market going into this year's contest - when a country has led in both categories, they’ve gone on to win six out of the last seven times.
Sweden remain the most backed country (22% of bets) to win Eurovision since the conclusion of Semi-final 1, with only the Netherlands coming close (10%) in terms of betting interest.
According to the betting, Austria are their biggest threat at a best price of 3/1 with SpreadEX.
Sam Eaton thinks they are one of the five countries who are almost guaranteed to qualify from the Semi-finals tonight - check out who else he thinks will go through here.
They will perform 6th in the running order - a position with a historical qualification rate of 61%.
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The third favourites are Netherlands at a best price of 11/1 with Sky Bet.
The Netherlands are chasing redemption in 2025 after last year’s dramatic disqualification of Joost Klein, who was removed from the Grand Final in Malmö just hours before the show following allegations of "threatening" behaviour towards a female camera operator.
This time around, Claude is leading the Dutch revival with his entry “C’est la vie,” which has surged in the betting markets. Now the third favourite to win in Basel, Claude has become the biggest mover in the odds - shortening from as long as 30/1 before Semi-final 1.
France and Israel who also perform tonight are a best price of 14/1 and 22/1 respectively.
