The EV Eagle has picked out five betting tips for Thursday's Europa League action.
The EV Eagle has landed on Oddschecker!
In this new daily tipping series, the EV Eagle picks out their best bets from our Positive Expected Value tool, one of the premium tools available to Oddscheker+ subscribers.
In today's article, the Eagle has picked out five best EV bets for Thursday's Europa League action.
How does Positive Expected Value (EV) betting work?
When bookmakers set betting lines, they estimate the likelihood of each outcome.
Value Bets, our Positive EV Tool available for Oddschecker+ subscribers, leverages advanced AI to perform 100 million projections each week and monitors 125 million live price changes daily. This enables it to identify bets that have a higher probability of winning than what the lines suggest.
Running P+L: +13.35pts
Tip 1: Anis Hadj Moussa - Over 2.5 shots vs Celtic - 2pts
Best odds of 19/20 with Betway when publishing. As short as 1/5 elsewhere.
We have succesfully backed Hadj Moussa shots in our previous Europa League best bets article and we are going back to him again vs Celtic.
The Algerian international has had 3+ shots on 5/8 starts at home for Feyenoord this season, and 3+ in three of his previous four club starts.
His side are 8/11 favourites vs Celtic tonight and so far this group stage Celtic have conceded 40 shots across their opening two Europa League away games.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 78%, so the odds of 19/20 with Betway when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 52% on this play.
17:45 - Porto vs Nice
Tip 2: Gabriel Veiga - Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs Nice - 1pt
Best odds of 21/20 with BetMGM when publishing. As short as 2/9 elsewhere.
Porto's Gabriel Veiga has had a shot on target in both Europa League starts this season, and 1+ in 5/9 across all competitions.
Predicted lineups have him starting tonight against Nice who are averaging 4 shots on targets conceded against their last three Europa League games.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 75%, so the odds of 21/20 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 54% on this play.
5:45 - PAOK vs SK Brann
Tip 3: Andrija Zivkovic - Over 0.5 Shots on Target vs SK Brann - 1pt
Best odds of 1/1 with BetMGM. As short as 1/3 elsewhere.
PAOK's Andrija Zivkovic has come alive for his side in the Europa League this season with two goals and two assists in his four appearances.
Despite only two starts, he has managed to get five shots on target in the Europa League and three in the two matches where he started.
BetMGM UK
Brann have conceded 17 and 16 shots in their first two away games in the Europa League so PAOK should get their fair share of attempts tonight.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 73%, so the odds of 1/1 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 54% on this play.
17:45 - Fenerbache vs Ferencvaros
Tip 4: Kerem Akturkoglu - Anytime Goalscorer vs Ferencvaros - 0.75pts
Best odds of 23/10 with betway when publishing.
Fenerbache's Kerem Akturkoglu has found the back of the net 4 times in 7 six home starts for his new club this season, with three of those coming in the Europa League.
Akturkoglu has now scored four in four at home and we are backing him to extend his hot streak against Ferencvaros who have conceded 16 and 13 shots in their first two Europa League away matches vs RB Salzburg and Genk.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 42%, so the odds of 23/10 with Betway when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 37% on this play.
Real Betis vs Utrecht
Tip 5: Abde Ezzalzouli - Over 1.5 Shots on Target vs Utrecht - 1.25pts
Best odds of 11/5 with BetMGM. As short as 4/6 elsewhere.
Real Betis winger, Abde Ezzalzouli, has been in fine shooting form this season, having 2 or more shots on target in 3/6 home matches and scoring in three of those.
Before the international break, Ezzalzouli scored in 3/4 home starts and recorded 8 shots on target in those matches.
Tonight's opponents, Utrecht, have conceded in every Europa League match this season and opponents have had 15 shots on target against them in their last two UEL games.
Our Positive EV tool has the probability of this bet landing at 60%, so the odds of 11/5 with BetMGM when publishing gives us a Positive EV of 23% on this play.
EV Eagle Europa League Double
Anis Hadj Moussa 3+ Shots
Abde Ezzalzouli 2+ Shots on Target
Best price of 4.86/1 with BetMGM when publishing, as short as 1/1 elsewhere. 0.5pt stake advised.
