Read our France vs Italy prediction with key betting tips, projected lineups, and standout odds for Friday's high-stakes UEFA Nations League clash.
France vs Italy Match Summary
Competition | UEFA Nations League |
|---|---|
Match Date | Friday 2 October 2026 |
Match Time | 19:45 UK time |
Venue (City, Stadium) | Stade de France |
Zinedine Zidane takes charge of his first home fixture as head coach when France host Italy at the Stade de France, a meeting of the top two in UEFA Nations League A.
Zidane has opened his tenure with back-to-back wins, but Kylian Mbappé's knee tendon problem rules him out, so Michael Olise, the late match-winner in Belgium, carries extra weight.
Italy recovered from a humiliating home defeat to Belgium by hammering Türkiye 4-1 on the road. Roberto Mancini's side were three goals up inside half an hour.
France hold the upper hand in previous meetings, winning four. Italy have won two and none have finished level, so the visitors arrive with something to prove.
France vs Italy Form
France have won both of their opening outings 1-0 away from home, against Türkiye and Belgium. They are the only League A side yet to concede and sit top of the table. Michael Olise settled the trip to Belgium with a late winner off the bench, and with Mbappé out, he is the player Zidane's attack runs through.
Italy's campaign started with a humiliating 2-0 home defeat to Belgium, but they responded in style. A 4-1 win in Türkiye, with the damage done early, showed how dangerous they are going forward. They sit second behind France, and Kean and Esposito are set to lead the line in Paris's direction of travel: straight at goal.
France vs Italy Lineups & Team News
Injuries & Suspensions
France: K. Mbappé (Injured/out), T. Hernández (Injured/out), J. Mateta (Injured/out), I. Konaté (Injured/out), W. Saliba (Injured/out), W. Zaïre-Emery (Injured/out)
Italy: B. Cristante (Injured/out), F. Dimarco (Injured/out), N. Zaniolo (Injured/out), M. Dagasso (Injured/out), J. Ekhator (Injured/out), F. Mane (Injured/out)
France
The France vs Italy lineups are shaped heavily by injuries. Mbappé's knee tendon problem rules him out for the rest of the international break, and with Saliba and Konaté also missing, Upamecano and Lacroix form the probable centre-back pairing. Zidane rotated heavily for the trip to Belgium, so expect sweeping changes, with Olise, Ousmane Dembélé and Rayan Cherki all set to start.
Italy
Nicolo Zaniolo has stepped away from the squad with a muscle injury, while Dimarco and Cristante are also sidelined. Riccardo Calafiori, Nicolo Cambiaghi and Giovanni Di Lorenzo are among those set to be recalled, and the probable XI has Donnarumma behind a back four of Di Lorenzo, Scalvini, Bastoni and Calafiori.
France vs Italy Predicted Lineup
France
Formation: 4-2-3-1 (probable)
Predicted Starting Lineup: M. Maignan; J. Koundé, D. Upamecano, M. Lacroix, A. Truffert; A. Rabiot, E. Camavinga; M. Olise, R. Cherki, D. Doué; O. Dembélé
Italy
Formation: 4-3-3 (probable)
Predicted Starting Lineup: G. Donnarumma; G. Di Lorenzo, G. Scalvini, A. Bastoni, R. Calafiori; N. Barella, D. Frattesi, S. Tonali; M. Kean, F. P. Esposito, N. Cambiaghi
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France vs Italy Key Stats & Match Facts
France have won four of their previous meetings with Italy. The Azzurri have won two, and none have ended in a draw.
France have lined up in a 4-2-3-1 in eight of their last 10 matches.
Italy's 4-3-3 has been used in only three of their last 10 matches, so their shape is far less settled.
France are the only side in UEFA Nations League A yet to concede a goal in this campaign.
France and Italy each have six players listed as injured for this fixture.
France vs Italy Prediction & Best Bets
Our prediction: France 2-1 Italy. Zidane's side go in as the stronger outfit on current form, priced at 4/9 (Unibet), and our France vs Italy prediction backs their attack, led by Olise and Dembélé, to make the difference even without Mbappé. Italy showed in Türkiye that they can hurt anyone, so we fancy the Azzurri to get on the scoresheet without stopping the hosts.
Best Bets
Both Teams To Score: Yes France's reshaped centre-back pairing of Upamecano and Lacroix faces an Italy front three of Kean, Esposito and Cambiaghi, and our scoreline has both sides scoring. It heads our France vs Italy best bets at 8/11 with Ladbrokes.
Over 2.5 Goals Our scoreline lands on three goals, and with Olise, Cherki and Dembélé in the France side, this does not look like a stubborn, low-scoring affair. Over 2.5 Goals is 8/15 with Unibet.
France vs Italy Bet Builder
Our France vs Italy bet builder tips combine a France win, Ousmane Dembélé to score anytime and both teams to score, backing the hosts with goals at both ends.
France to win: Zidane has won both games in charge, and home support at the Stade de France sits behind an attack of Olise, Cherki and Dembélé. The hosts are the side to back.
Ousmane Dembélé to score anytime: he leads the line in the probable 4-2-3-1, and with Mbappé out, the goalscoring burden falls squarely on him, fed by Olise and Cherki.
Both teams to score: Italy recall Calafiori and Di Lorenzo, and a France back four without Saliba and Konaté looks more vulnerable than its record suggests.
At the time of writing, this bet builder pays a best price of 18/5 and is as short as 5/2 elsewhere.
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Bet builder odds correct at time of publishing.
France vs Italy Talking Points
Zidane has set the tone for his home debut, insisting: "Fear doesn't exist in my vocabulary. On the contrary, I see only opportunities." That confidence fits a coach handed a contract running through the 2030 FIFA World Cup, and a side whose attack still looks frightening without Mbappé. Scanning the France vs Italy betting odds, Italy are 13/2 with AK Bets, which feels about right. Mancini's men can score, but Doué, Cherki and Olise behind Dembélé is a different level.
France vs Italy Predictions FAQs
When is the France vs Italy UEFA Nations League game?
The match kicks off at 19:45 UK time on Friday 2 October 2026.
Where is France vs Italy being played?
The match is being played at the Stade de France.
What competition is France vs Italy in?
The match is part of the UEFA Nations League.
Disclaimer
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