Max Homa heads six betting tips from Niall Lyons for this week's PGA Championship
PGA Championship 2024
The PGA Championship will be hosted at Valhalla Golf Club, Louisville, Kentucky.
When I was a youngster it was the US Open which provided the toughest test of the lot, but recently the PGA has become similar, with the US Open experimenting with some different venues over the last decade or so.
Below are my tips for the week (prices first advised on Monday so may have moved).
PGA Championship Tips
- 2pts each-way M.Homa 30/1 (1/5 8) William Hill
- 2pts each-way B.Dechambeau 28/1 (1/5 8) Sky Bet
- 1.5pts each-way W.Clark 40/1 (1/5 8) Sky Bet
- 1.5pts each-way J.Niemann 33/1 (1/5 8) Paddy Power
- 1pt each-way A.Bhatia 125/1 (1/5 8) Bet365, Sky Bet, William Hill
- 0.5pt each-way T.Pendrith 225/1 (1/5 8) Bet365
The PGA is now a haven for long hitters with Koepka, Thomas and Mickelson sharing six of the last seven renewals. A par 71 at over 7600 yards this Nicklaus design will surely set up like previous PGA Championships and play into the hands of some of the longest hitters in the game.
Zoysia grass is a new addition here compared to 2014 so a nod to form at East Lake may prove beneficial.
Rory McIlroy ranked 1st in SG off the tee when winning here in 2014 and 3rd from tee to green courtesy of a great week with the irons also.
Similar will no doubt be needed here to get into contention and whilst we may see a totally different test at Pinehurst next month, this years PGA looks set to be the traditional test we have become accustomed to.
As usual there will be plenty of trends to pour over when it comes to a Major but one of the most prominent is the previous Major result.
Many use a solid effort in contention at a Major Championship as a stepping stone to something greater, and for some of the more experienced sorts it's a sign of a return to their best before going on to win another Major.
Since 2019 and the switch for the PGA schedule, the Masters winner has somewhat struggled with the best being Matsuyama who followed up his Augusta victory with a 23rd placed finish at the PGA.
What is more telling though is that the PGA winners have all had a good Masters with Mickelson (2021 PGA Winner) having the worst Masters result finishing 21st.
Brooks Koepka won the PGA in 2019 and 2023 having finished runner up at the Masters on both occasions prior. Thomas won the PGA in 2022 after having finished 8th at the Masters.
This is a positive trend (as shown by the tables below) and the winner could well be in the top 10 of the Masters just last month.
A table for the 2020 Masters is deliberately left out because the 2020 PGA won by Morikawa took place before the Masters due to Covid.
Now that Scottie Scheffler's participation is confirmed, I expect him to compete, especially when the Grand Slam doesn't seem beyond his reach. Will some downtime in terms of tournament golf be a negative this week? Quite possibly, and for many reasons he is easily passed over at 4/1.
Jon Rahm cuts a miserable figure so far on the LIV tour and a lacklustre effort at Augusta doesn't fill me with confidence.
Ludvig Aberg was tipped in this column in January at 25/1 so we have him covered, and maybe it's for the best as going in now at 18/1 when there's a slight concern about his knee may just make you nervous.
McIlroy will be all the rage this week but he has arrived at a Major seven times off the back of a win since his victory here at Valhalla in 2014 and has yet to better 5th place.
Now Valhalla may prove a different story seeing he has won here before, but he's certainly not an auto bet at odds of 7/1.
PGA Championship Previous Winners / Winning Score:
- 2023 - B.Kopeka (-9)
- 2022 - J.Thomas (-5)
- 2021 - P.Mickelson (-6)
- 2020 - C.Morikawa (-13)
- 2019 - B.Koepka (-8)
Let's get to my six tips for this week's second major.
Max Homa at 30/1 (Eight Places)
Max Homa took a while to get going in Major Championships but is beginning to motor and looks one worth siding with at Valhalla.
Following his best Major finish last July when 10th at Hoylake, Homa went on to give a bold account of himself at the Masters before Scheffler eventually skipped off into the sunset on the final nine.
Nevertheless, it was a final group spot on Saturday, and the penultimate pairing on Sunday which should provide all the confidence to produce similar in one or two of the remaining Majors in 2024. A poor week followed at Harbour Town where he finished 55th, but that was largely down to an uncharacteristic poor week on the greens.
He returned with better form last week at Quail Hollow finishing inside the top 10 and that looks solid preparation for another bid at a first major this week in Kentucky.
Long and straight off the tee, that should be a huge advantage for Homa at Valhalla, but we've seen both during his wins and his Ryder/Presidents Cup performances that he is so clutch on the greens when it matters most.
A solid performance in the previous Major often translates to a special one next time out and Homa is more than capable and still at a very backable price.
Bryson DeChambeau at 28/1 (Eight Places)
Bryson DeChambeau has only finished outside the top 20 in two of his last six Major appearances and I was particularly impressed by how he played at Augusta last month.
I wasn't in the least bit surprised that he didn't hang on to the lead over the weekend as a firm Augusta is a tall order for someone who has the chipping and putting action of R2-D2.
Bigger scores followed his opening 65 that he compiled on the easiest, softest day of the week. Now back at a course that demands length off the tee Bryson should be well suited to the test at Valhalla and is an obvious danger to the market leaders.
I don't buy that Bryson should be double the odds of Koepka, who does arrive in winning form but DeChambeau has picked up the pace on the LIV tour and has played well this season after two late victories in 2023.
If he gets a sniff around the lead here at halfway he will have a much bigger chance of holding on than what he did at Augusta.
Wyndham Clark at 40/1 (Eight Places)
Collin Morikawa came very close to making the grade here, especially given the recent trend of this event being won by a former winner.
With a few risk/reward holes here he is one of the better equipped in that department, and with his accuracy off the tee he can make hay on those shorter par 4s just like he did at Harding Park.
However, this is a long golf course and although his accuracy will prove beneficial, I can't help but feel this event will go the way of a slugger, and at bigger odds I prefer Wyndham Clark.
I selected Clark for his US Open win last year at 60/1 and given what has happened since, the 40/1 this week looks very fair. He is one of the very few elite players who has a victory this season and with runner up finishes at Bayhill and Sawgrass still arrives here with great credentials.
His 3rd place finish at Harbour Town showed his versatility as that track certainly wouldn't be one that suits his game, but Valhalla should play right into his hands.
It was a poor week at Quail Hollow but being defending champion I think we can overlook that a little. His prowess off the tee, solid approach play and clutch putting style should give him every chance of landing another one of these classical PGA/US Open setups and he looks a somewhat forgotten man in the betting market, and that surprises me.
Joaquin Niemann at 33/1 (Eight Places)
Last month I talked plenty about how I thought Joaquin Niemann was one of the best three or four golfers in the world heading into Augusta, and I've seen little since to dissuade me that this still isn't the case and at a high of 40/1 looks one worth chancing.
He was a 25/1 poke for the Masters in April, and didn't disgrace himself with a top 25 finish with a misfiring short game being the main issue. Since then 3rd in Adelaide and 7th in Singapore are signs that his form is still very solid and with his distance off the tee he should relish the opportunity here at Valhalla.
Muirfield is another Nicklaus design that could prove to be a good form guide for this week and he has 3rd and 6th placed finishes there at the Memorial in five attempts.
There are numerous golfers ahead of him in the market who I don't believe are in the same form as the Chilean and he's an easy back at these odds.
Akshay Bhatia at 125/1 (Eight Places)
I'll finish with two outsiders, and two winners this season with the strongest of the two bets being Akshay Bhatia. Bhatia landed a victory on his first full season on tour by winning the Barracuda last July, and has since added to that with a remarkable victory in the Texas Open just last month.
What was equally remarkable was that Denny McCarthy somehow managed to stay with him that weekend and Bhatia was forced into a playoff. With everything that was thrown at him he showed a lot of resilience and bottle to land the win which looked a foregone conclusion a few times over that weekend.
From a true strokes gained perspective, DataGolf consider that victory the best of the year so far, even better than Scheffler's victory at the Masters. It's no surprise either given he trounced McIlroy by nine shots and Fleetwood and Matsuyama by 12.
When Wyndham Clark won the Wells Fargo last Spring his stats were similar and it paid not to sleep on that effort when he managed to win the US Open shortly thereafter.
His irons have been in sparkling form in the last month ranking 2nd in strokes gained approach in Houston, 1st at San Antonio and 2nd at Harbour Town.
Bhatia has looked a little special so far in his short career and although it's a tall order, the price available looks fair value given some of the performances he has produced over the last 18 months.
1pt each-way A.Bhatia 125/1 (1/5 8) Bet365, Sky Bet, William Hill
Taylor Pendrith at 225/1 (Eight Places)
Finally I'll have a smaller bet on Taylor Pendrith. I had high hopes a couple of years ago for the Canadian and it never quite happened, that was until a few weeks ago when he won the Byron Nelson.
It wasn't quite an emphatic victory needing help from Ben Kohles on the 72nd, but he backed it up with an impressive 10th placed finish at Quail Hollow and a venue such as Valhalla should play into his hands also.
Many of the 'surprise' winners of this event in the last few decades had landed a victory earlier in the season, and whilst Bhatia has strong credentials regardless of that victory, Pendrith is riding the crest of a wave and at 200/1+ looks worthy of a small bet at the place terms available.
