Willie Mullins has four major players at his disposal for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle next month, but who is the safest ante-post option for Andy Holding?
Supreme Novices' Hurdle
In a meeting of shocks at the Dublin Racing Festival (DRF) earlier this month, one of the biggest shake-ups came courtesy of Facile Vega’s defeat in the two-mile Grade 1 novice on the Sunday.
In fact, his eclipse totally changed the whole dynamics of the betting for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle for the Cheltenham Festival in March.
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Facile Vega blow-out shakes up the Supreme
Prior to his total blow-out, Willie Mullins’ inmate had looked the best in his division, so to see him trail in last of the five who finished was a massive surprise to the sell-out crowd and all who watched on from afar.
On reflection, his rider Paul Townend set off at a gallop his mount couldn’t sustain throughout and that allowed his lesser fancied stable mate, Il Etait Temps, to be the chief beneficiary.
The fact he was 5.8 seconds quicker than State Man in the Irish Champion Hurdle to the same path halfway down the back straight backed up the view that Mullins’ stable jockey had gone off too fast in his bid to see off High Definition and in the end, he was a pale shadow of the horse we’d witnessed at the previous meeting.
Whether he can bounce back to his best after this chastening experience only time will tell, but he surely hasn’t become a bad horse overnight and a lot will depend on connections working out a better game plan to utilise his qualities next time.
Having drifted from 5/6 to 4/1 after the DRF, Facile Vega is now back as the ante-post favourite for the Festival opener next month (best price 10/3).
Il Etait Temps underestimated despite win
Due to the nature of the race, Il Etait Temps will probably not get the credit he deserved for his victory, but whatever side of the fence you sit, you still have to be impressed with the way he quickened up from the last.
The way he strode out to pull 10 lengths clear of some proper novices marks him down as one of the leading players in his category and his winning time, almost three seconds quicker than State Man, suggests he’s by some way underestimated by the layers after the dust had settled.
Later on the same card, Gaelic Warrior threw his hat in the ring regarding a possible tilt at the Cheltenham Festival with a smooth success under top weight in the big two-mile handicap and his victory will no doubt give his connections plenty to ponder over the coming weeks.
By some way the slowest of the hurdle races on the card (four seconds slower than Il Etait Temps on the final circuit), the numbers suggest he may not have the basic speed to go with the proven Grade 1 horses over two miles and he might just end up being better off in the Ballymore as a result.
Fresh Marine Nationale favouritism challenge by default?
Watching all the drama unfold, connections of Marine Nationale must have been pleasantly surprised how things have developed since he landed the Royal Bond way back in November and their plan to avoid all the skirmishes in the build-up and go straight to Cheltenham a fresh horse, certainly looks a wise one for the time being.
Good on the numbers at the Co Meath track, it’s worth pointing out that the likes of Ashroe Diamond, Champ Kiely and Path D’Oroux have all boosted the form since and whether you believe he has rather inherited this shot at favouritism by default (now best price 4/1), he still has to be a big part of the conversation for the Festival curtain raiser.
Threadbare home challenge
Similar comments also apply to Tahmuras who is also a proven Grade 1 winner at two miles courtesy of his smooth performance in the Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown last time. Not quite as good figures-wise than many currently around him in the ante post markets, he will probably need genuinely soft ground to justify some of his single-figure quotes.
The rest of the home challenge is beginning to look a bit threadbare, especially after Rare Edition flopped in the Sidney Banks Novices’ Hurdle at Huntingdon last week.
One of the stronger UK players on the clock prior to arriving at the Cambridgeshire venue, Charlie Longsdon’s gelding had what appeared a fairly uncontested lead against just two rivals inferior to him on ratings, so the fact he couldn’t turn Marble Sands away suggests he’s not the graded horse he potentially looked beforehand.
One that could change this dynamic is Luccia, impressive winner of her most recent outing in a listed contest at Exeter. Easily good enough for something like the Supreme, she is, however, a deserved short-price favourite for the Mares’ Novice Hurdle, so it would be something of a surprise if connections were to take the hardest of her two options at the festival.
Read Architect Tips' Boom or Bust assessment of the Cheltenham favourites.
If you follow the market vibes, Mullins’ other recent Graded hurdle winner, Impaire Et Passe, is more likely to head towards the longer journey of the Ballymore, but given how much water has to flow under the bridge between now and then – and particularly how his trainer doesn’t commit until very late – it’s a dangerous game trying to pinpoint for certain where he’ll end up.
That said, winners of the Moscow Flyer have a good record in the Supreme, so on that basis, he certainly wouldn’t be out of place over the two-mile contest.
Of the rest, High Definition’s mistake that led to his rider being unseated wasn’t out of character with what had gone on prior to his exit (similar story on his debut) and he will need to brush up his jumping significantly to be a feature against the very best.
Diverge posted quite a good time at Fairyhouse last time and he rates an interesting contender, while Olly Murphy’s promising pair, Chasing Fire and Strong Leader, probably lack the experience just now to warrant a change to either set of connections’ current decision to avoid Cheltenham.
A wide open division with more questions than answers
A division that still has more questions than answers, even after Leopardstown, but at least we have what should turn out to be a cracking and wide-open betting race on the day.
As it stands, Mullins still has four major players at his disposal but in the likelihood that Il Etait Temps won’t be one of them asked to step out of this division and head down the Ballymore route, he’s arguably the safest option at the current prices (best price 9/2).
