It is the final article of the five-part series of The Notebook, and I hope you have enjoyed reading it as much as I have enjoyed writing it.

As a reminder, here are the key takeaways from the series so far:

Week 1: Skelton does not clean up in the Premier Handicaps as much as you think. Look away from the Champion Trainer and you will find value.

Week 2: Toby Bulgin will make you money in the Bumpers. Look out for his runners!

Week 3: James Owen improves horses for their second outing like no other trainer does. Look to back his horses following a prep run.

Week 4: October is the month for Olly. The Murphy team hit the ground running and can put some money in your pockets in the early part of the season.

Market vs. The Ground

This week is one for favourite backers, or for those who are following the markets and making their betting decisions based upon where the money is going.

There is data from RaceWatch that offers some insight into how the market has assessed runners based on the going description, and firstly, I wanted to look at how favourites perform overall in both the UK and Ireland.

It is obviously worth noting that there is an abundance of racing in Britain compared with Ireland, with a hugely overblown race programme, which inevitably means that the market is incorrect more often than not, and this is shown by the data:

Favourites:

Great Britain
Runners: 3,720
Winners: 1,361
Strike Rate: 36.6%
P+L = -£132.00

Ireland
Runners: 1,646
Winners: 574
Strike Rate: 34.9%
P+L = +£84.00

This data is indicative of two things: that there is too much racing in the UK and, subsequently, much less juice in the prices of UK winning favourites, which is no doubt most likely down to smaller field sizes. Although Britain yields a greater strike rate for winners than Ireland, there’s a stark contrast between the profitability when comparing each country.

But what happens when we introduce other variables, such as differing ground conditions?

Well, in short, the softer the ground, the less accurate the market, and here’s the data that reflects that:

Favourites to BSP, based on varying ground:

Good
P+L = +£40.00

Good-Yielding
P+L = +£14.00

Yielding
P+L = +£95.00

Good-Soft
P+L = -£52.00

Soft
P+L = -£72.00

Heavy
P+L = -£53.00

Clearly, there’s plenty of opportunity to look further down the racecard when conditions are on the softer side, and it would be prudent to avoid the head of the market.

 

Horse: Thomas Mor

Given that the going conditions have been in focus this week, I am turning to a horse who is ground-dependent for my fifth and final horse of the series.

Thomas Mor is a very lightly raced nine-year-old with just 11 starts under rules, yet he has won on five of those starts. Not only is he a horse who requires a sound surface, but going right-handed would see him to much better effect than the other way around. So much so that four of his five victories have come at racecourses that require you to go this way round, meaning he is unbeaten when lining up at a right-handed venue.

His run in the Kauto Star was particularly good, having finished just over 2L behind Kitzbuhel, who was the shining light of the staying division last season, winning at Kempton before going on to score at Cheltenham.

Thomas Mor could take in a few engagements this season, but there are few opportunities for him to line up when all conditions will be in his favour. So, I’ve landed on a race that needs to be penned beside his name in your Notebook, and that comes relatively early in the season at Ascot, in the form of the Grade 2 1965 Chase.

We had good ground at the meeting last year when Jango Baie blew away his rivals and, given the lack of rain through the last few months, it may well remain that way come the middle of November. Thomas Mor has won at the track in a small-field affair last season, and this 2m5f test with the stiff finish at Ascot could be right up his street.

Perhaps one that won’t be on many radars for the race, but should he line up here, then there’s every chance that he can extend his unbeaten record when going right-handed and land himself a graded win.

Summary

Ireland offers much more value for favourite backers, while racing in the UK and the sheer volume of it makes life more difficult to make it pay if playing at the head of the market.

Look further down the market when ground conditions get softer and track all five of these runners as we lead into the National Hunt season.

It has been a long summer, but Chepstow week is finally here!

The Notebook

Week 1: Emid’io Pepe

Week 2: Nathannah

Week 3: Hamlets Night

Week 4: Gee Force Flyer

Week 5: Thomas Mor