Welcome our new Oddschecker+ tipster, Aidan O'Hara! Find his tipping bio and Fred Winter ante-post selection here.
Meet our new tipster, Aidan O'Hara!
Hi all!
The primary focus with my tips, is to find value at the higher priced end of the market. Being a small punter myself for years, has left me with very little interest in short priced horses. At the big meetings like the Cheltenham Festival and Ascot, the markets are very strong and there is value to be had at some huge prices.
I’ve called this tipping series “The only one Cheering” as that’s what I’m after. I’ll be in Cheltenham and there is no better feeling, than hearing mostly only your own voice, roaring home something that 99% of the crowd had never considered. Of course, there will be long waits between winners like that. However over the years because of the number of big races in the week, I’ve been able to profit, with a large number of placed horses at huge prices, between those big priced winners.
Over the last 20 years, there has been a fair number of big days, with the likes of Wicklow Brave, Jeff Kidder, Monmirral, Stellar Story and many more at huge prices. I have a full stats on the last 8 years available to anyone that wants a closer look. Basically, I’ve had 217 bets, with 438 points invested and a profit of 272 points, giving an ROI of 62% (Thank you Jeff Kidder at 80/1). Keeping that ROI is not really feasible but, looking back over the 20 or more years I’d be delighted with anywhere near a 20% return on average.
Patience will be needed, as you can imagine, I will have more losers and more last place finishes than any other tipster, given my average price at those Cheltenham festivals is 36/1. But for all those losers the big price winners over the years have more than made up for it in profit.
The last 2 festivals perfectly emphasises this point with 2024 being my best ever with Steller Story 33/1, Monmirall 33/1, and Absurde 14/1 all winning, and being the only big priced winners of the week out of all the races. 2025 was the opposite with fallers left right and centre, and no luck whatsoever leading to a near whitewash, which was the first time ever I’ve had a proper bad festival. These 2 years perfectly encapsulate what can happen, if taken individually the difference is stark, but combined there is 87 points invested for a 15 point profit.
If your following my big priced selections, staking needs to be relatively small, as you’ll need to be able to think the big picture and not be at all worried about backing losers, in the knowledge that over time it has paid to follow these tips for most of the last 20 years.
Good luck all for the Festival!
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Aidan O'Hara's Fred Winter Ante-Post Selection
I’m going to start of my tipping with the newly named Hallgarten and Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap (commonly known as the Fred Winter), one of the hardest races of the year! The 4yo Handicap hurdle is one of the biggest minefields of the week, given the nature of young horses with unknown potential and this as a target all year. That said I’m hopeful I’ve found a bit of value worth taking now at what looks a decent price.
Quinta Do Lago looks a decent price for me given some of the collateral form from his 4 runs this year. His first 2 maiden hurdle wins have worked out with Lucy The Wire, whom he beat in his first run at Cork, being moved to a UK stable and winning after. His beating of Ole Ole next time out has really worked out with that horse really running well next twice against a few very good prospects that line up here of an identical marks to my selection.
He has then run as well as could be expected behind Narciso Has at Leopardstown, after not getting the ideal run. The main reason he sticks out as value is his run behind two horses near the top of the Triumph market at Fairyhouse on his last run. He stayed on well after needing to be roused up to finish 3rd. I think that run was an improvement and also shows he will likely be able to respond up the hill in Cheltenham .
That line of form, is the ideal prep for this and I think his mark is also fine given those runs. He has been given a break since, and the old adage of Jessie Harrington doesn’t send over horses without some kind of chance is also in play here
He is 33/1 with a number of bookmakers at the time of publishing. There is only 4 places NRNB but at ¼ the odds it’s the same value as 5 places with 1/5th.
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