What does EV Betting mean?

One of the most commonly asked questions by those new to sports gambling, is “What does EV mean in betting?” In sports betting, EV stands for Expected Value and is a crucial concept that helps bettors determine the (potential) profitability of their bets over time. 

Once a bettor is able to calculate EV, they can assess whether an individual wager offers positive or negative returns based on the odds and likelihood of the various outcomes. By understanding EV, a sports bettor can make more informed decisions and enhance their betting strategies, no matter the sport or betting market.

Expected Value Definition

Expected Value (EV) in betting is a statistical term that measures the amount a bettor can expect to win or lose if the same bet is placed repeatedly under the same conditions. EV is important in sports betting because it allows you to take advantage of posted lines that you deem to be incorrect, based on variables you believe the sportsbook has not considered in their odds calculation.

Expected Value Calculation

EV is calculated by multiplying each possible outcome based on their projected probability and then summing these values. Precisely, the formula for EV is:

EV = ∑ (Probability of Outcome × Payout of Outcome)

As an example, if you place a $100 wager on a coin toss example where heads pays out $200 and tails pays nothing, the EV calculation would be as follows:

• Probability of heads: 50% (0.5)
• Probability of tails: 50% (0.5)
• Payout for heads: $200
• Payout for tails: $0

EV = (0.5×200) + (0.5×0) =100

In this example above, the EV is $100, meaning that if you made this bet many times over, you would break even in the long run. Understanding this and calculating your EV accordingly can help you as a bettor identify bets that offer value, and potentially even more importantly, avoid bets that do not.

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Learn how to use EV to place your bets

There are a few key things you need to have to find the expected value in sports betting, which can be broken down into a few isolated inputs. 

1. Identify the Probability of Each Outcome: Determining the implied probability of each outcome is a critical first step. In a given bet, you can come up with that number using long-term success, analyzing historical data, the current condition of teams/players, and other relevant factors.
2. Determine the Payout for Each Outcome: Know the potential return based on bet size for each outcome based on the odds offered by the sportsbook you are using.
3. Calculate the EV: Use the EV formula noted above or an EV calculator to calculate the expected value for each bet. Positive EV indicates a profitable bet, while negative EV indicates a losing bet. Focusing on niche markets gives you a much better chance of finding positive EV, as odds makers spend less time calculating those odds and lines.