What is EV in Betting?

Why is EV Important for Bettors? 

The best way to find sustained success in sports betting is by using Expected Value (EV) betting. EV ultimately allows bettors to see the potential profitability of a given bet over the long term. If you understand EV betting, you’ll see a significant change in your bankroll in the long term. 

Important Terms to Understand 

Implied Probability 

Implied probability converts betting odds into a percentage to show the likelihood of a specific outcome in a sportsbook. For example, using American odds of +100, the implied odds would be 50%. At -150, the implied odds would be 60%, and at +150, the implied odds would be 40%.  

Expected Value (EV) 

When bettors talk about having EVs, they refer to having value against the current market. You'll have a positive expected value if you continue to beat the closing lines. However, if you continue to wager on bets that don’t beat the closing line, you will get a negative expected value.     The goal is always to have a positive expected value. If you can do that, you’ll profit long-term if you stay consistent.  

Positive Expected Value 

If you wager on the Los Angeles Dodgers at -110 against the San Diego Padres, but the Dodgers close at -130, you have a positive expected value (+EV). This is because you bought the Dodgers at 52.38% implied odds (-110), but the sportsbooks closed at -130, giving the Dodgers a 56.52% chance of winning outright in this scenario.    That is a positive expected value bet. If you can do that long-term, you will profit over time. This is the most efficient way to beat a sportsbook. 

Negative Expected Value 

Conversely, if you wagered -110 on the Dodgers, but the Dodgers closed at +115, you’d have a negative expected value. In this scenario, you grabbed the Dodgers with implied odds of 52.38, but the sportsbooks closed, giving the Dodgers just a 46.51% chance of winning.     The more this happens, the less likely you’ll make money in the long term. 

Check out our industry-leading Positive Value Bets Tool

What is VIG? Why is it Important? 

The VIG is known as the “juice” or “margin.” It’s ultimately the tax or commission that a sportsbook makes for taking your action.     For example, many point spreads are -110 on both sides. These sportsbooks imply that both sides have a 50% chance. However, both sides are taxed, allowing a sportsbook to profit from each wager.     This is why you’ll need to find the true odds for a specific bet before determining if it’s an expected value bet. The true odds are computed by taking the tax out of the odds. 

Expected Value Formula 

The formula for calculating the expected value in betting is: 

• (fair win probability) x (profit if win) - (fair loss probability) x (stake) 

Example Calculation Once you have your no-vig fair odds, you’ll want to determine whether the bet you want has a positive expected value.     For example, let’s say you bet $100 on the Los Angeles Dodgers at +110 odds. First, you’ll want to look at some of the sharpest books in the world to see where their lines are.    Let’s say the sharpest books have the Dodgers at -105 and the Padres at -105. This implies that the Dodgers should be +100 odds. The sportsbooks imply the Dodgers have a 50% chance using the fair odds to win in this scenario. However, you can bet the Dodgers at an implied probability of 47.62.     Therefore, the +110 wager on the Dodgers would be an EV bet.    You can see this by filling in that formula.     (50% X $110) - (50% X 100) = $5 expected value.     Every time you put $100 on a bet like this, you’d earn $5 in expected value. If you made a $500 wager in this instance, you’d have $25 in expected value. What is the Long-Term Profitability of the Expected Value? Even with expected value, you’re not going to win every bet. However, if you continue to place these types of bets throughout the year, you’ll see a quality return on your investment.     There will be some ups and downs. The volatility will be rough sometimes. But as long as you double-check that you’re hitting EV bets, you’ll eventually see success over time.     Every time you make a bet, the odds are only slightly in your favor. This isn’t a get-rich-quick scheme, and no bet is guaranteed to hit. But if you can add many bets that are +EV over time, that’ll change your bankroll for the good.  

Differences Between Positive EV Bets vs. Negative EV Bets 

Positive EV Bets 

Bets with positive EV are much more likely to be profitable over time. 

Example: If you wager on the Kansas City Chiefs at -130 against the Buffalo Bills, but the Chiefs close at -175, you’ve earned a positive expected value bet against the sportsbooks.  

Negative EV Bets 

Bets with negative EV are likely to result in losses over time. 

Example: If you bet the Kansas City Chiefs at -130 in that same scenario, but the Chiefs fall to +100, you now have a negative EV bet. The market didn’t move in your favor, and now you have a bet that expects to lose you money long-term.     You can still win a negative EV bet. But over time, it’s not a profitable strategy for long-term success.  

The Best Expected Value Strategies 

1. Identify Value Bets 

You’ll want to have as many sportsbook accounts as possible to find value bets. This way, for one, you can find discrepancies in the lines. Secondly, if you find an EV bet, you will want to place the wager on the sportsbook.     Discrepancies move fast, so having money in your sportsbook account is recommended before looking for EV bets.     Some bettors have a niche in which they’re comfortable betting. Others will target less popular sports and catch the sportsbook sleeping due to a lack of information on said sport.  

2. Use an EV Calculator 

There are many sports betting EV calculators online. Use one to quickly determine if you have a positive EV bet. 

3. Monitor Closing Line Value (CLV) 

Make sure to track the CLV before and after the game.     There will be instances where you’ll have a bet that beats the CLV at the moment but doesn’t beat it when the game begins. Many markets will move much more drastically closer to game time because more people bet as the games start.    Check again if you’re losing long-term and thinking you’re playing +EV bets. There’s potential that the line will move in the opposite direction once you place your bets.     It’s important to know if you have closing line value when placing a bet, and it’s also essential to see if you had closing live value after the game began.     If you can beat the closing line value over 60% of the time, you’ll be in good long-term shape. 

4. Place Many Bets 

There will be times when you win a -EV bet and times when you win a +EV bet. However, if you consistently earn a high expected value bet rate, you will see long-term success.     However, if you’re placing one bet a day, you probably won’t see the results that you’re expecting. You only have a slight edge for every bet you place. This is why it’s essential to wager on many +EV bets a day to reduce risk and get results.  

5. Manage Your Bankroll 

Have a system in place for your bets. You can wager based on the Kelly Criteria or just bet the same amount for each bet.     Ensure you’re wagering a small percentage of your total bankroll on one bet. The results won’t be consistent if you're not consistent.  

FAQs: What is EV in Betting? 

What is an Example of EV Betting? 

We’ll create a scenario between the Brooklyn Nets and the New York Knicks.    Let’s say you have $100 to bet, and you grab the Knicks at -130 odds on the moneyline early in the morning. By game time, the Knicks moved to -150. At -130, the implied probability was 56.52%. However, by game time, the sportsbooks’ implied probability for the Knicks to win was 60%.    That $100 on -130 has an expected value of $6.15. Every $100 placed on -130, when the closing line value is -150, will yield $6.15 in expected value.     There’s no guarantee the Knicks win this game against the Nets. However, if you placed this same bet $100 times, your positive expected value would likely become a reality with the big sample size.  

Is Positive EV Betting Profitable? 

The best way to beat the sportsbooks is by using positive expected value. Your chances of long-term success are high if you consistently place positive EV bets.     You’re making informed decisions based on the market by placing positive EV bets. This is a good strategy with a proven track record over time.  

Conclusion 

Now that you understand EV betting, ditch your old recreational betting style and make informed bets based on the market. This will help you build your bankroll and create a potential side hustle.    You don’t have to know the teams you’re betting. You don’t even have to understand the sport you’re betting on. As long as you’re beating the closing line value, you’re on your way to betting success.     What more could you ask for?