Odds format
United States

NBA MVP Odds: Can Anything Slow Down the Steph Curry Train?

In what has become essentially a four-man race to the NBA MVP award, has the Warriors' historic pace locked up the award for Steph Curry already? We take a look at the latest NBA MVP odds to find out.
| 7 min read
Share to Facebook
Share to Twitter
Copy Link

NBA MVP Odds: Can Anything Slow Down the Steph Curry Train?

As we head into Christmas week in the NBA, where do the top five favorites for NBA MVP stand? Who could potentially gain ground in the future and will the return of a couple Warriors spoil Steph Curry's MVP run?

Let's unwrap these holiday MVP odds and find out.

Click here for the latest NBA MVP odds

Error fetching data.

NBA MVP Odds Update

Luka Doncic (+3000, Last Week: +2500)

Much like Joel Embiid a few weeks ago, Luka Doncic's MVP fortunes are fading fast as he deals with injury and a mediocre team performance, punctuated by a recent 4-6 stretch in their last 10 games.

Doncic missed six of the last 14 games for the Mavericks, and although he produced an elite 26.8 points, 9.4 assists and 7.5 rebounds on 47% shooting, the absences stand out more than the play.

In many past NBA seasons, what Doncic is doing this year (25.6 points, 8.1 rebounds, 8.5 assists) would be a rubber-stamp MVP award. But he and his team seem to have dug too deep a hole for him to jump over the four players listed ahead of him. No value here, it seems.

Nikola Jokic (+1300, Last Week: +1500)

Similar to the Mavericks, the Nuggets are stuck on a 14-13 record and seem to be headed in more in the direction of a .500 team than the team we saw last year make a deep run in the playoffs.

Jokic is doing some Herculean work without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. In the eight games since he returned from injury, Jokic averages 26.9 points, 14.1 rebounds, 9.0 assists and 1.4 steals on 57% shooting. Every one of those number is up from his MVP campaign last season, but with the Nuggets on pace to win 42.5 games this year as opposed to the third place finish in the West last year, the votes likely won't be there for a repeat.

Jokic may have gained some ground on the three odds leaders for MVP, but expectations were so high for the Nuggets coming into the season, this relative letdown will be enough to move voters to another name on their ballots.

Looking for the best sportsbook offers in your state? We've got you covered

Giannis Antetokuonmpo (+650, Last Week: +700)

The Bucks, on the other hand, are on the ascent and now sit third in the East, including the third-best point differential in the conference and third-most points per game (110.5). Their last four wins have been by an average of 13.5 points per game as they are starting to routinely blow out teams, a common occurrence in their title run last year.

But the Bucks' recent strong run came on the strength of multiple Milwaukee players, and just some good-not-great numbers from Giannis. His 24.6 points, 10.6 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 51% shooting in his five games since a minor injury are all drops from his seasonal numbers.

My theory is that odds-makers are shortening MVP lines for Jokic, Giannis, and Durant so that all the action doesn't flock to the odds-on favorite. The best thing Giannis has going for him is that his odds provide much more value than Durant or Curry and it's shaping up to be a dog fight right to the finish to see who will have the best record in the East.

Giannis has the second-best PER in the league, ahead of Durant and Curry. If I'm looking to fade Curry at his odds, Giannis is my bet, as the Bucks could make a massive leap in the second half when they return to full health.

Kevin Durant (+450, Last Week: +500)

The PER formula also loves Durant, who ranks third in the NBA thanks in part to leading the NBA in scoring by more than two points and driving the Nets to a 7-3 record and the top spot in the East by two games heading into Christmas week.

You have to sit back and marvel at Durant who, less than two years from a major achilles injury has his third-highest points per game of his career, his most assists per game, and his third-highest field goal percentage of his career. All this while playing in his 14th NBA season.

If the return of some of Steph Curry's teammates has any meaningful impact on his MVP run, Durant looks to be the one who would benefit most, especially if they keep their perch atop the East.

Steph Curry (+145, Last Week: +150)

There are three players on this list who average the same or more points per game than Curry. They all average more rebounds. Two of them average more assists. All of them have a better shooting percentage. So what is so special about Curry's season that he is such a heavy favorite?

One word: expectations.

Last season, the Warriors squeaked out a 39-33 record, good for eighth in the West. With Klay Thompson still hurt and the NBA prognosticators not sure how Jordan Poole and Gary Payton II would handle increased workloads, the Warriors were considered fourth-best in the West, at best. Odds-makers had the Lakers, Jazz, and Nuggets all in better positions.

But with an NBA-best 22-5 record, the Warriors look back to their old selves offensively and defensively. They are second in the NBA in points per game and first in opponent's points per game. Their 11.7 point differential ranks fourth-best all time behind only the 96' Bulls, the '72 Lakers, and the '71 Bucks, according to Statmuse.

Those are three all-time teams and if this team continues to play at that level, there is no doubt Steph Curry should win MVP. His +145 odds will seem laughably high by the time April rolls around.


Proudest husband and dad you will ever find. When I'm not with my wife and two kids I split my time working in higher ed, grinding DFS and season-long, collecting silver age comics, studying behavioral economics, and drinking coffee. I once played Pat Connaughton in an actual NBA DFS lineup for money. Astros, Rockets, and Texans for life.


Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.