NBA MVP Odds: Can Anyone Catch Steph Curry?
NBA MVP Odds: Can Anyone Catch Steph Curry?
The leader in the NBA MVP odds clubhouse is widening his lead thanks to the Warriors winning nine of their last 10 games and Curry going on an extreme hot streak in four of his last five games. There are only a couple things standing in the way of Curry running away with this award now. First, Klay Thompson and James Wiseman come back and the Warriors are so dominant Curry starts taking games off down the stretch. Second, injury.
If Curry can hold off those two variables, the rest of the players on this list have a very steep climb to try to catch him.
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NBA MVP Odds Update
Luka Doncic (+2500, Last Week: +1600)
Doncic’s injury that kept him out for multiple games eliminated any short-term chance he had at moving up in the MVP race. At this point, Doncic is just fortunate that Jimmy Butler was also recently hurt, otherwise he would have dropped out of the top five.
Speaking of dropping, the Mavericks have dropped six of their last 10 games and are now just one game removed from the play-in tournament bracket. If the Lakers or Clippers gain any steam over these next couple months, the Mavericks could find themselves fighting for one of those spots.
The injury hasn’t helped Doncic fix his shooting woes this season, either. He is still at just 45% from the field and 34% from three. This might be Paul George or Jimmy Butler’s spot in a couple weeks (both +4000).
Nikola Jokic (+1500, Last Week: +1000)
It’s another all-time season for Jokic, but it looks like it might go to waste considering the state of the rest of the roster.
Both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, Jr. are now lost for the season and the Nuggets have lost seven of their last 10 since Porter went out. They are now just a game and a half from missing the playoffs completely after finishing third in the West last season.
If they continue to trail off, look for Jokic to get more rest, which would halt any positive momentum for a back-to-back MVP campaign. Voters look at games played and team record, and if Jokic is lacking in any of those, there is no value here at all.
Giannis Antetokuonmpo (+700, Last Week: +800)
The Bucks are 8-2 in their last 10, so Giannis gets a bump while the Bucks continue to move up in the standings. Besides Curry, Giannis is the only player in the top seven to have their odds shorten, primarily because he has the fourth-best offensive rating in the league and sixth-highest usage rate over his last seven games.
He is at 28 points, 12.2 rebounds, 6.3 assists, 1.1 steals and 1.5 blocks on 60.8% shooting over those last seven and still barely made up any ground on the top two in this list.
Giannis missed Thursday’s game with a calf issue, but the team does not think it is overly serious and is just being cautious with their franchise cornerstone. But he will be a surefire candidate for rest down the stretch if the Bucks lock up home court in the first round of the playoffs.
Kevin Durant (+500, Last Week: +500)
It is incredible to consider that a player who entered the league when George W. Bush still had one more year in office is leading the league in scoring at 28.6 points per game. It’s officially the third-highest scoring output of his career and it’s accompanied by an unbelievable 54% from the floor and 39% from three.
Even more astounding is that just a year and a half from a major Achilles injury, Durant is playing 35.8 minutes per game, his highest since 2013-2014. With the Brooklyn Nets now firmly in the number one spot in the East, this looks like Durant’s most likely spot in the odds and in the voting at the end of the season.
I’m not sure how many great years with have left with Durant, but he is certainly playing at an MVP level as he approaches age 34. If you’re hedging against the favorite and think something happens to derail Curry’s campaign, Durant is place to invest.
Steph Curry (+150, Last Week: +200)
What I wrote about Steph Curry 10 days ago:
“I hope you bought in at +500 or +300, because the drop on these odds is going to continue.”
We are now approaching even odds for Curry to win the MVP and we aren’t even in the second week of December yet. At this point, it would be a massive upset if he didn’t win. Only an injury or a slump the likes of which Curry has never seen could drop him out of the top spot.
The Warriors may have dropped out of the top spot in the West by a half game, but reinforcements are coming by way of Klay Thompson and the Suns just lost Devin Booker for a few games. These two look poised to battle for the number one seed all season that will just draw more attention to Steph’s incredible season at age 32.
Curry is top 10 in every imaginable advanced metric: PER, offensive win shares, defensive win shares, VORP, usage rate, and overall plus/minus.
It’s officially last call on plus value for Curry’s MVP odds. This is an all-time great season by an all-time great player.
Proudest husband and dad you will ever find. When I'm not with my wife and two kids I split my time working in higher ed, grinding DFS and season-long, collecting silver age comics, studying behavioral economics, and drinking coffee. I once played Pat Connaughton in an actual NBA DFS lineup for money. Astros, Rockets, and Texans for life.