NBA Finals Exacta Odds: Projecting Total Games in Pacers vs. Thunder Championship Series After Game 1 Shocker
The Indiana Pacers' come-from-behind Game 1 win was a shocker, and now the NBA Finals look much different than we expected. Will the NBA Finals reach a Game 7 now? Mark Harris dives into the possibilities by analyzing the Pacers vs. Thunder Series Correct Score bets.
Mark Harris - June 8, 2025, 4:15 PM EDT
5 Minute ReadNBA Finals Exacta Odds: Projecting Total Games in Pacers vs. Thunder Championship Series After Game 1 Shocker
Facing the Indiana Pacers in the 2025 NBA playoffs is not for the weak.
Or the strong. Or anyone, really.
Tyrese Haliburton's last-second game-winner propelled Indiana to a stunning 111-110 Game 1 NBA Finals victory on Thursday night, and all of a sudden, this series is flipped completely upside down.
It was his fourth game-winning or game-tying shot in the final five seconds of a game this postseason, triggering nightmare flashbacks from his previous victims in Milwaukee, Cleveland, and New York.
The Pacers never led until the final second of the game and committed 25 turnovers — including 19 in the first half — and in typical Pacers fashion, Haliburton pulled off some magic at the end, and they walked away victorious.
Oklahoma City's high-pressure defense is the reason why it forced so many turnovers from an Indiana team that normally takes care of the ball. That defensive intensity and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's 38 points are primarily why the Thunder led by 10-ish points for most of the game and jumped to a 15-point advantage with 9:42 left in regulation.
But the Pacers never let go of the rope. Six Indiana players scored at least 10 points (three had double-doubles with rebounds), and the whole team lit it up from beyond the arc. The Pacers shot 46.2% from deep (18-of-39), and that 3-point marksmanship kept them in the game when OKC was playing well. Obi Toppin was the best of the bunch, as he hit five of his eight 3-point shots in a 17-point effort.
Now that the dust is settled and we look ahead to Game 2 in Oklahoma City on Sunday night, the big question is how the NBA Finals will play out now that Indiana has a win under its belt. Entering the series and throughout 95% of Game 1, the vast majority of viewers expected a Thunder sweep or five-game series win, but now they can't sweep, and it's really unlikely they win it in five games. OKC remains a -300 series favorite, while Indiana is a +275 underdog.
Correct Series Score bets are the way to predict how the NBA Finals will finish. FanDuel Sportsbook offers odds for all seven potential outcomes, and I'm going to examine each one based on its FanDuel odds.
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Pacers vs. Thunder Series Odds
Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Correct Score Odds After Game 1
- Oklahoma City Thunder 4-1: +290
- Oklahoma City Thunder 4-2: +285
- Oklahoma City Thunder 4-3 +265
- Indiana Pacers 4-0 +1800
- Indiana Pacers 4-1 +1300
- Indiana Pacers 4-2 +710
- Indiana Pacers 4-3 +1040
Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Series Scenarios
Thunder in 7 +265
We saw the Thunder suffer a late-game defeat in Game 1 of their second-round series against the Denver Nuggets, and they went on to win in seven games. They've done it before, and they can do it again. This is the bet to make if you think OKC is the better team, but still acknowledge that Indiana is a worthy foe capable of winning two more times.
Thunder in 6 +285
Thunder in six games at +285 is the best value. It bakes in that the Pacers won't go out meekly by dropping the next four games while still favoring OKC. This outcome doesn't seem as likely as Thunder in 7 because it would require them to win a close-out Game 6 in Indianapolis, but that is why the value is a bit better.
Thunder in 5 +290
Considering Thunder in 7 and Thunder in 6 are +265 and +285, respectively, Thunder in 5 at +290 is incredibly disrespectful to the Pacers. Yes, I understand that OKC is still a big series favorite after Game 1, but Indiana still has at least two games at home, so it is hard to imagine it losing four straight. Haliburton had long stretches where he wasn't that effective in Game 1, so I think he's due for at least one game in the Finals where he puts up monster statistics in another Pacers victory.
Pacers in 6 +710
The +710 odds indicate that Pacers in 6 is the most likely way for them to win the Finals, and that makes sense on paper. They would have a potential close-out Game 6 at home and would still have enough wiggle room to let OKC take Game 2 and Game 5 on its home court. The downside with Pacers in 6 is that it probably means Indiana has to win all three of its home games, and the Thunder have shown enough this postseason to expect them to steal a game on the road.
Pacers in 7 +1040
While it would be extremely difficult for Indiana to win a Game 7 in Oklahoma City, it just stole Game 1 and has proved all playoffs that it can elevate its game in tense, late-game situations. Pacers in 7 also gives Indiana the slack to drop a home game, something it has done in each of the last two series. Additionally, the Thunder firing on all cylinders can simply reach higher highs than the Pacers can, and that could be enough to prevent Indiana from winning the Finals in six games.
Pacers in 5 +1300
The Thunder are too good to go out in five games. This OKC squad has four wins of 30 or more points on its 2025 playoff resume, which means they are capable of a few more elite performances in the NBA Finals. When the Thunder get rolling, they resemble a basketball avalanche, and they've done it throughout this postseason. Their high-end potential will lead to at least two more wins in this series.
Pacers in 4 +1800
This is the easiest one to rule out. For as good as the Pacers have been in these playoffs, they barely won Game 1, and OKC has won every Game 2 at home by double digits. Pacers 4-0 has the least likely odds for a reason: the Thunder will win at least one game. Don't waste your money on this bet.
Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals Correct Score Prediction
The NBA Finals will almost certainly be decided in six or seven games.
If you're riding with the Thunder, I would take them to win in six games. There is some decent value at +285, and it allows room for one more Pacers win. Thunder in 6 seems like the most likely outcome of any of these bets.
If you think Indiana can pull off the NBA Finals upset, it comes down to how much you trust the Pacers at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Two of its four playoff losses have come at home, so while Pacers in 6 feels like the safer bet, it may be too reliant on them to take care of business in Indianapolis. Pacers in 7 has far more value and doesn't require perfection on their home court, although a Game 7 in Oklahoma City would be daunting. I would slightly lean Pacers in 7.
NBA ODDS
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