NBA Draft 1st Overall Pick Odds: AJ Dybantsa Near Certainty to Get Selected by Washington Wizards
The 2026 NBA Draft begins Tuesday, June 23, at 8 p.m. ET from Barclays Center, with the first round on Tuesday night and the second round on Wednesday. The No. 1 pick market is centered on AJ Dybantsa and Darryn Peterson, but Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson remain the only other realistic longshots in a loaded freshman-heavy class.
Peter Alexis - June 23, 2026, 9:00 AM EDT
4 Minute ReadNBA Draft First Pick Odds: Will Wizards Take Anyone Other Than Dybantsa With Top Pick in Tuesday's NBA Draft?
AJ Dybantsa is the overwhelming favorite to be selected No. 1 overall in the 2026 NBA Draft, sitting at -700 ahead of Tuesday night. Darryn Peterson is second at +600, while Cameron Boozer is +4000 and Caleb Wilson is +10000.
The Washington Wizards are heavily expected to make the first pick, and the market has moved strongly toward Dybantsa as the cleanest fit. Peterson was viewed as the favorite for much of the college basketball regular season, but Dybantsa’s dominant scoring year at BYU and cleaner pre-draft profile have pushed him into near-lock territory.
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NBA Draft First Pick Odds
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NBA Draft First Pick Odds
AJ Dybantsa (-700)
Dybantsa is the clear favorite because he checks the most important boxes for a No. 1 pick. He has size, scoring volume, wing creation, transition ability and the kind of physical tools that usually separate top draft candidates from the rest of the class.
His BYU season gave the market very little reason to move away from him. Dybantsa produced like a go-to scorer, carried a huge offensive load and avoided the kind of injury or off-court noise that can create draft-night uncertainty. That matters in a class with several elite prospects, because Washington does not need to overthink the pick if the top wing on the board also comes with the cleanest path to stardom.
The Wizards fit also helps explain the price. With Trae Young and Anthony Davis already in place, Dybantsa would not have to be the entire offense immediately. He could slot in as the high-upside wing scorer between a veteran point guard and an elite interior presence, giving Washington a much more balanced core if it keeps the pick.
Darryn Peterson (+600)
Peterson is the only serious challenger left in the market. At +600, he is not being treated like a random longshot, but he has clearly fallen behind Dybantsa after being the favorite for large portions of the regular season.
The talent case is still real. Peterson has elite guard skill, shot creation and scoring instincts, and there were points during the year when he looked like the natural No. 1 pick because of how valuable lead guards are in the modern NBA. If Washington wanted the player with the cleanest on-ball creator profile, Peterson would still have a case.
The problem is that the draft process has shifted toward risk management. Peterson’s injury concerns, including hamstring issues and missed time, have made his profile less clean than Dybantsa’s. The Wizards also already have Trae Young, which does not eliminate Peterson from consideration, but it does make Dybantsa’s positional fit easier to understand.
Cameron Boozer (+4000)
Boozer is the first true longshot on the board at +4000. He is one of the best players in the draft and could still go extremely high, but the market is not treating him as a realistic No. 1 threat unless Washington shocks the board.
His Duke season gives him a strong case as one of the safest prospects in the class. Boozer has size, polish, rebounding, passing and a two-way profile that should translate quickly. In another draft, that type of production could have kept him firmly in the No. 1 conversation all the way to draft night.
The issue is upside and roster fit compared with Dybantsa. Boozer is excellent, but Dybantsa has the wing-scoring profile that front offices usually chase first, and Peterson has the guard-creation argument if Washington wants to swing away from the favorite. Boozer is more likely to be a top-three or top-four pick than the first player off the board.
Caleb Wilson (+10000)
Wilson rounds out the realistic top-four group at +10000. The North Carolina forward has enough talent to stay near the top of the draft, but his No. 1 path is extremely thin based on where the market sits.
Wilson’s appeal comes from his athleticism, versatility and all-around forward game. He has the tools teams want in a modern frontcourt player, and his ability to impact multiple areas makes him more than just a scoring prospect. That is why he belongs in the top-four conversation.
Still, getting to No. 1 would require a major surprise. Washington would have to pass on Dybantsa’s scoring profile, Peterson’s guard upside and Boozer’s production-based case. Wilson can be a high-end lottery pick and still have almost no real chance to be the first selection.
NBA Draft First Pick Odds Outlook
This is now Dybantsa’s market to lose. Peterson made the No. 1 race interesting for much of the year, but the late movement has clearly favored the BYU freshman as Washington gets closer to the clock.
Peterson is the only realistic upset candidate because of his talent and the way he was viewed earlier in the cycle. Boozer and Wilson are elite prospects, but at +4000 and +10000, they are priced like top-four talents rather than true first-pick threats.
The Wizards can still create drama on draft night, especially if they entertain trade-down offers, but the board is telling a simple story. Dybantsa is expected to be the No. 1 pick, Peterson is the fallback if Washington surprises, and Boozer and Wilson would need a major late twist to jump both.
- Market Favorite: AJ Dybantsa (-700) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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