NBA Draft 5th Overall Pick Odds: Will Clippers Take Keaton Wagler or Darius Acuff Jr. with Decisive Fifth Pick?
The No. 5 pick is where the 2026 NBA Draft board starts to open up. After the clear top-four group of AJ Dybantsa, Darryn Peterson, Cameron Boozer and Caleb Wilson, the Clippers could go in several directions with Keaton Wagler, Mikel Brown Jr., Darius Acuff Jr., Brayden Burries and Kingston Flemings all in the mix.
Peter Alexis - June 23, 2026, 2:28 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadNBA Draft Fifth Pick Odds: Wagler, Acuff Among Top Choices for Draft-Altering 5th Pick on Tuesday Night
Keaton Wagler is the favorite to be selected No. 5 overall at +130. Mikel Brown Jr. is second at +240, Darius Acuff Jr. is third at +450, Brayden Burries is +750, and Kingston Flemings is part of the longshot tier at +2200.
This is the first pick where the market feels less locked into one obvious team-player fit. The top four prospects are expected to be gone, and unless Caleb Wilson unexpectedly falls past Chicago, the Clippers are likely choosing from the next group of guards and wings.
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NBA Draft Fifth Pick Odds
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NBA Draft Fifth Pick Odds Breakdown
Keaton Wagler (+130)
Wagler is the favorite because his freshman season gave teams a clean, projectable NBA role. He averaged 17.9 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.2 assists for Illinois, shot well from the perimeter, and played a major part in the Illini reaching the Final Four.
His March run is a big part of the case. Wagler was named South Regional Most Outstanding Player after Illinois beat Iowa in the Elite Eight, and he averaged 17.5 points, 6.5 rebounds and 3.8 assists in that regional while shooting 44% from three. That type of postseason résumé matters for a Clippers team that may value a polished wing who has already produced in high-leverage games.
The concern is whether +130 is too short in a market this open. Wagler’s shooting, size and Final Four run make him a logical fit, but this is not the same kind of certainty as Caleb Wilson at No. 4. The Clippers could easily decide they want more on-ball creation or upside, which is why the next few names still matter.
Mikel Brown Jr. (+240)
Brown is second at +240, and the talent case is easy to understand. He averaged 18.2 points and 4.7 assists at Louisville, had a 45-point game against NC State, and still has one of the better guard skill sets in this range.
The issue is availability and momentum. Brown dealt with a back injury for much of the year, missed eight games, sat out the ACC Tournament, and did not play in Louisville’s NCAA Tournament games as the Cardinals exited in the second round. That left teams evaluating the flashes more than a full finish to the season, which is not ideal in a draft class this strong.
Brown can still be a very good NBA player because the shooting, passing and scoring craft are real. For the Clippers, though, taking him at No. 5 would require confidence that the injuries are behind him and that his best version is still coming. That makes him a real contender, but not the cleanest read on the board.
Darius Acuff Jr. (+450)
Acuff is the best value angle at +450. He averaged 23.5 points, 6.4 assists, 3.1 rebounds and shot 44% from three as a freshman at Arkansas, giving him the strongest pure production profile of the guards in this range.
He also came on at the right time. Acuff carried Arkansas down the stretch, won SEC Tournament MVP, then scored 36 points with six assists to beat High Point and send the Razorbacks to the Sweet 16. Even in Arkansas’ Sweet 16 loss to Arizona, he scored 28 and kept proving he could carry offense against tournament-level competition.
The Clippers could talk themselves into Acuff because he brings the one thing this pick range lacks: a true lead-guard scorer who produced every night. Wagler has the safer wing fit and Brown has the smoother pedigree, but Acuff’s late-season rise and March shot-making make +450 interesting. If the Clippers want the best offensive engine left after the top four, Acuff is the swing.
Brayden Burries (+750)
Burries is the next realistic name at +750. He averaged 16.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.5 steals for Arizona while helping the Wildcats reach the Final Four, giving him both production and tournament credibility.
The appeal is his two-way frame. Burries is a strong 6-foot-4 guard who can defend, shoot, and play through contact, which gives him a cleaner role projection than some high-usage guards. He may not have Acuff’s offensive burden or Wagler’s shooting profile, but he does a lot of things NBA teams value.
His path to No. 5 depends on the Clippers preferring physicality and balance over pure scoring. Burries feels more likely to land in the next tier of the lottery, but if Los Angeles wants a tough guard with Final Four experience and defensive upside, he is not an impossible jump.
Kingston Flemings (+2200)
Flemings is a longshot at +2200, but his résumé is strong enough to mention. He averaged 16.1 points, 5.2 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.5 steals at Houston while shooting nearly 48% from the field, 39% from three and 85% from the line.
He also has a clean point guard profile. Flemings led Houston in scoring, assists, steals and three-point percentage, and his balance of athleticism, decision-making and defensive activity gives him one of the better two-way guard cases outside the top group. His freshman season was steady enough that he belongs in the top-10 conversation.
The issue is that No. 5 may be a little too early unless the Clippers are higher on him than the market expects. Flemings is a strong long-term prospect, but Acuff, Wagler and Brown all have clearer cases in this specific slot. At +2200, he is more of a surprise outcome than a primary read.
NBA Draft No. 5 Pick Odds Outlook
This is where the draft becomes more interesting. The first four picks have a clear consensus, but the Clippers at No. 5 are choosing from a tier with different strengths: Wagler’s shooting and Final Four run, Brown’s skill and upside, Acuff’s scoring explosion, Burries’ two-way build and Flemings’ point guard profile.
Wagler deserves favorite status because he fits cleanly and had a major March rise. Brown is the injury-risk upside play, while Acuff is the value at +450 because his freshman production and late-season takeover were too strong to ignore. Burries and Flemings are viable, but they look more like next-tier names unless the Clippers go off the expected board.
The best market angle is Acuff at +450. He carried Arkansas to the Sweet 16, posted the best scoring and passing numbers in this group, and gives the Clippers a dynamic offensive creator at a much better price than the favorite.
- Value Watch: Darius Acuff Jr. (+450) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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