2024 March Madness Upset Picks: 8 NCAA Tournament Upsets to Watch
Oddschecker analyst Peter Alexis is here with March Madness potential upset picks. Come check out his March Madness upsets to watch in the opening round of the NCAA tournament.
Peter Alexis - March 17, 2024, 10:30 PM EDT
7 min2024 March Madness Upset Picks: 8 NCAA Tournament Upsets to Watch
The March Madness field is set, and the top teams dominate the seeding atop the bracket, as expected all year.
A No. 1 seed has won the NCAA Tournament in 12 of the last 16 editions, and their is a stacked trio with the best odds to get it done again. But they'll have to survive upset scares in the early rounds to get there, and there are a lot of candidates to unseat them.
In the days leading up to Thursday's tip, millions of bettors and basketball fans will try to predict where the thrilling upsets will take place in the opening round. Let's take a look at some teams who have a shot to get it done as the underdog in their first game of March Madness.
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8 Potential March Madness Upsets
1. No. 9 Texas A&M (+130) to Defeat No. 8 Nebraska (Bet $100 to collect $230)
The Texas A&M Aggies are the number one offensive rebounding team in the nation, and will bring their physicality to the forefront against Nebraska. Tyrece Radford and Henry Coleman III are a force on the glass, and combine for double digit rebounds per game.
Their OREB percent peaks at nearly 42%, while Nebraska ranks back at 221st in defensive boards. The Cornhuskers would prefer to sit back and shoot the three with Keisei Tominaga, but the Aggies will look to lock them up defensively and create a fight in the paint.
This line has already fallen from +3 to +2 since the bracket was released, and bettors are piling on to the resurgent Aggies to find success in Round 1. Their postseason campaign looked dead in the water a few weeks ago, but a brief winning streak capped by an upset of the Kentucky Wildcats in the SEC Tournament helped seal the deal. Look for Wade Taylor IV and the Aggies to ride their renewed momentum into this matchup with Nebraska.
2. No. 8 Mississippi State (+115) to Defeat No. 9 Michigan State (Bet $100 to collect $215)
The Mississippi State Bulldogs had to squeak their way into the tournament. What once seemed like a lock turned into a bit of a bubble as they struggled down the stretch. But the Michigan State Spartans are largely in the same boat.
Both teams are not playing their best ball, but the Bulldogs at least excelled in their conference tournament. They thrashed regular season champion Tennessee by nearly 20 points, and were in it until the end against eventual tournament champion Auburn in the semifinal.
Mississippi State has the size and rebounding advantage to dominate this matchup, and they'll have to bring a physical fight to take down the Spartans. Both teams have hung with the best teams in their conference, but the tougher team will get this win on Thursday afternoon to kick off March Madness.
3. No 11. Oregon (+105) to Defeat No 6. South Carolina (Bet $100 to collect $205)
The Oregon Ducks fought their way into the field as a bid-stealer with an electrifying run to the Pac-12 Championship. They got revenge against UCLA, Arizona, and Colorado on the way, and were awarded with an 11 seed for their efforts.
Big man N'Faly Dante has been incredible for the Ducks, and didn't miss a single shot in the Pac-12 title game with a 12-for-12 effort for 25 points. The Ducks are finally getting healthy after long stretches of injury, and the on-court product certainly shows some clicking between their stars.
South Carolina has had an impressive season that far surpassed everyone's expectations, but they have little to no NCAA Tournament experience. They've only made it once in the last 20 years, leading to their improbable Final Four run. Don't expect that to happen again, as they limp into this matchup off a 30-point blowout at the hands of the Auburn Tigers. These teams are moving in opposite directions, and Oregon has a shot to ride the wave to victory.
4. No. 12 James Madison (+165) to Defeat No. 5 Wisconsin (Bet $100 to collect $265)
The James Madison Dukes are a fascinating commodity in this year's NCAA Tournament. They started the year on an incredible win streak, and were the last undefeated team remaining in Division 1 for several weeks.
They've only dropped three games all year, and ran away with double-digit blowouts in their conference tournament. The oddsmakers are aware of the threat they present, with this line already falling from +5.5 to +4.5 in the hours since the bracket was released.
The Badgers have shown flashes of excellence this year, but may have peaked too early. They have a savvy group of veterans in Tyler Wahl, Steven Crowl, and Chucky Hepburn. They're also complemented by the young talent of point guard AJ Storr. They were ranked in the top-10 back in January, and there were rumblings of them fighting for a 1-seed.
A disastrous losing spell wiped all of that away, but they still finished strong as the Big Ten Tournament runner-up this weekend. This isn't as tough of a defense as we are used to seeing in years past for the Badgers, and that may be an issue when the Dukes get hot from the field. Wisconsin just gave up 93 on Sunday to Illinois, and if they can't shut down the JMU offense, they are going to have a tough time keeping up.
5. No. 10 Drake (+105) to Defeat No. 7 Washington State (Bet $100 to collect $205)
The Drake Bulldogs ran the table and took down media darling Indiana State to earn their spot in the tournament. Drake is no stranger to March Madness, making this their third appearance in the last four years.
This will be their highest seed, after arriving as an 11th and 12th in their previous trips. They fell short twice, but did get a win in the First Four play-in game back in 2021. This may be their best chance to advance, and the seniors on this team know what to change to get over the hump.
The Bulldogs will be going against a Washington State team who seemed to peak in late February. They have lost three games since Arizona State snapped their eight-game win streak at the end of last month, and have struggled to control games against their weaker conference foes. Drake will try and take advantage of this with their veteran leadership and finally grab the elusive first round victory.
6. No. 13 Samford (+250) to Defeat No. 4 Kansas (Bet $100 to collect $350)
The Samford Bulldogs took care of business as the 1-seed in the SoCon Tournament, and have arrived to March Madness with a chance to make some noise.
The Bulldogs will take on a reeling Kansas Jayhawks squad, fresh off of back-to-back 20+ point blowout losses, one of the weakest performances in the Bill Self era. This is not the standard Kansas squad we are used to seeing, and one starter out can cause a collapse to the entire lineup.
They have nearly no depth on the roster, with the starting-5 playing the majority of their contests. When Kevin McCullar Jr. missed time throughout February due to nagging knee injuries, the team suffered embarrassing defeats. Add the brief loss of Hunter Dickinson and they are unable to compete with nearly anyone in the Big-12 conference.
They'll have these guys back for the NCAA Tournament, but their health levels are unknown and may not be 100 percent. Don't expect a big run from this Jayhawks squad, because they could easily be going down to the Bulldogs on opening night. Samford is the highest-rated 13-seed in the NET rankings, and are just 7.5-point underdogs to the mighty Jayhawks. It will be extremely difficult to flip the switch back on after the struggles of the last few weeks, and Samford has a chance to capitalize on that.
7. No. 13 Charleston (+425) to Defeat 4. Alabama (Bet $100 to collect $525)
At least one 13-seed has taken down a 4-seed in 14 of the last 15 tournaments. Charleston could be the team to get it done against Alabama, sporting +425 odds on Friday night. They are an impressive group backed by an experienced coach in Pat Kelsey, who's been here before.
Both squads play a similar style, with a fast pace and high-scoring offense. That doesn't necessarily benefit Charleston here because the Crimson Tide can out-talent them, but they do have a chance to beat them at their own game. Charleston will need to start hot here and get out to an early lead if they want a chance. Florida just did this to Alabama while playing the same style, and blew them out by 14+ points in back-to-back meetings.
8. No. 11 New Mexico (-125) to Defeat No. 6 Clemson (Bet $125 to collect $225)
This one isn't a true upset on the odds, but it still counts on the seeding. A lot of bettors are waking up to realize the power the New Mexico Lobos, who roll into the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the field and opened as an early -1.5 favorite over the Clemson Tigers.
Richard Pitino's group just ran the table in a gauntlet of Mountain West teams, taking down many of the squads already in the field. Jaelen House and Jamal Mashburn Jr. have been on fire as the veteran leaders, and they should bring a physical fight to this struggling Clemson backcourt.
On the other side, Clemson has lost three of their last four contests, all to teams not even in the tournament. Dropping games to Boston College, Wake Forest, and lowly Notre Dame is not how you want to arrive to March Madness, and they will have a hard time turning this one around against a red-hot talented team.
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