Big Ten March Madness Preview: Will the Big Ten Extend Deep into NCAA Tournament, or Fall Flat Early?

The Big Ten saw eight of its 18 teams earn a bid into the 2025 NCAA Tournament. All eight of these schools are seeded 7th or higher, with Michigan State qualifying as a 2 seed in the South Region, where No. 1 Auburn has been slotted.

NCAAM handicapper Matt MacKay is here with his analysis on all eight Big Ten teams and how they will perform during March Madness. He'll conclude with a prediction of the total number of wins these eight Big 10 schools will record throughout the NCAA Tournament.

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Big Ten March Madness Preview: Team Overviews

UCLA is the lowest seeded Big Ten team at No. 7 in the Midwest Region. Illinois is the lone 6 seed, also earning its bid in the Midwest Region.

Oregon and Michigan both qualified as 5 seeds, with the Ducks in the East Region and Wolverines in the South Region. Maryland is a 4 seed in the West Region, with Purdue earning a 4 seed in the Midwest Region.

Wisconsin is the lone 3 seed, drawing a tough First Round matchup against No. 14 Montana in the East Region. Tom Izzo's Michigan State Spartans earned a 2 seed bid in the South Region against No. 15 Bryant in the First Round.

The Spartans finished the season ranked eighth in the AP polls, with Maryland close behind at 11th. Despite both programs sitting with the best AP ranking right now, neither managed to beat their opponent in the Big Ten Tournament Semifinals.

Michigan's regular season finish was underwhelming but the Wolverines elevated their play during the Big Ten Tournament, rattling off three straight wins against Purdue, Maryland, and Wisconsin to win the Big Ten Final 59-53 over the Badgers.

Wisconsin upset Michigan State 74-71 in the other Big Ten Semifinal, led by a big scoring effort from G John Tonje. Tonje's scoring streak ran out against Michigan's stout defense in the Big Ten Final, as the Badgers' high-volume three-point shooting backfired in a low-scoring loss.

Only one of these Big Ten teams ranks inside the top 20 for offensive rating, which is Purdue at 117.0. Wisconsin and Maryland are next at 30th and 36th, followed by Illinois at 37th. Defensively, Maryland and Michigan State rank the best in opponent offensive rating, ranked ninth and 22nd respectively.

Teams like UCLA, Illinois, Oregon, Purdue, and Wisconsin could wind up with early exits in the NCAA Tournament. However, they all are capable of scoring in bunches, which could propel a few of these programs into the second weekend in the Sweet 16.

Big Ten Teams Total Wins in March Madness (Over/Under 11.5 Total Wins)

Oddsmakers have set the total number of Big 10 wins during March Madness to 11.5. This is the same number set for seven Big 12 teams. I wound up taking under 11.5 total wins in the Big 12, although now, we have one more team in the mix for the Big Ten.

Michigan State and Maryland are the teams most likely to go on a run and stack wins in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. The Spartans aren't a top-tier offense but they specialize in rebounding and playing great defense, which will be huge in these high-stake, single-elimination matchups.

I believe the Spartans can wind up facing No. 1 Auburn in the South Region by beating No. 15 Bryant, No. 7 Marquette, and No. 3 Iowa State. Their run may end with three wins.

Maryland has a tough First Round matchup against No. 13 Grand Canyon's dynamic scoring offense. The Terrapins would likely get another tough draw against either No. 5 Memphis or No. 12 Colorado State, which I believe will result in a Second Round loss.

Purdue is very much a pretender. The Boilermakers don't play defense well and rely on two of their starters to score the majority of their points, lacking scoring depth. A lot of bettors and college basketball fans believe Purdue could get bounced by No. 13 High Point in the First Round, which I also agree with, due to High Point ranking second in offensive rating (121.7) behind only No. 1 Duke.

Illinois, Oregon, and Wisconsin may only generate one or two wins collectively. The Ducks will likely face No. 4 Arizona in the Second Round, while the Fighting Illini may get bounced by either No. 11 Texas or Xavier in the First Round. Wisconsin's going to have to earn their First Round win against Big Sky winner, No. 14 Montana, who are among the best offenses in the nation.

Michigan will play UC San Diego in the First Round, who rank better than Houston to lead the nation in defensive rating. The Wolverines' offensive struggles are well-documented, which is why they are a trendy upset pick.

No. UCLA draws a matchup against No. 10 Utah State in the First Round. The Bruins may lose this game due to a pedestrian offense going up against a seven-loss Aggies team that ranks ninth in offensive rating. Even if UCLA wins, they'd then face Tennessee, which I believe would be an ugly loss in the Second Round.

I think you know where I'm going with this bet. Despite getting eight teams into March Madness, I don't think the Big Ten will finish with 12 or more wins in the 2025 NCAA Tournament. Michigan State may get to the Final Four by upsetting No. 1 Auburn, yet that's only four of 12 wins needed.

There are too many flaws on these Big Ten teams to ignore. Whether on defense or offense, these weaknesses will be exploited in tough matchups early in the NCAA Tournament, which will result in the Big Ten going under 11.5 total wins during March Madness.

Big Ten Teams Total March Madness Wins

• Pick: Under 11.5 Total Wins (-120) Click here to bet this at BetMGM Sportsbook