Penn State Next Head Coach Odds: BYU's Kalani Sitake Rises in Penn State Race After UCLA Hires Bob Chesney
The SEC coaching carousel finally wrapped up on Sunday afternoon, with many coaches following the Lane Kiffin to LSU domino. Now, Penn State is stuck with no true favorite as they grasp at straws, now reportedly considering Brian Daboll and BYU's Kalani Sitake. Who will end up in Happy Valley, and how long will it take? Peter Alexis provides an update into the Penn State Next Coach Odds.
Peter Alexis - December 1, 2025, 1:15 PM EST
5 Minute ReadPenn State Next Head Coach Odds: Kalani Sitake to Penn State Gaining Steam, Brian Daboll in Mix
Penn State hoped that jumping into the coaching market ahead of nearly everyone else would give them the advantage. Instead, one week later, they find themselves surrounded by total chaos. LSU hired Lane Kiffin on Sunday, Florida responded by landing Jon Sumrall, Auburn followed with Alex Golesh, and Arkansas brought in Ryan Silverfield. Every major domino that fell tightened the board, and Penn State, despite firing James Franklin first, is somehow the program still scrambling for footing. What was supposed to be a smooth, early search has turned into one of the messiest races in the country.
The Nittany Lions wanted to finalize their hire by Tuesday, December 2nd to align with the early recruiting dead period. That plan has evaporated. Instead they are watching new candidates enter the mix and odds shift hourly. Brian Daboll, newly fired by the Giants, has suddenly become a legitimate contender. Kalani Sitake has appeared out of nowhere to hover in the mid 20s after nearly leading BYU to back to back playoff runs. And Bob Chesney, last week’s clear favorite, has watched his once commanding position collapse as UCLA aggressively pursues him. It is the definition of a search in limbo.
Meanwhile, Penn State’s own interim coach Terry Smith remains popular with players and fans, but the administration is signaling that they want a splash hire to stabilize recruiting and regain momentum. The problem is that splash candidates keep getting pulled off the board elsewhere. What remains is an unpredictable three way battle between Daboll, Chesney, and Sitake, each with a drastically different résumé and set of circumstances. One week after the last update, Penn State’s search is somehow even more unsettled than before.
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Penn State Next Head Coach Odds at Kalshi
Coach | Implied Probability |
|---|---|
Kalani Sitake | 38% |
Bob Chesney | 1% |
Brian Daboll | 26% |
Terry Smith | 7% |
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Penn State Next Head Coach Odds Update
Brian Daboll: 26% Chance
Daboll has become the newest and most intriguing entry, rocketing into the race after his firing from the Giants. He spent three and a half seasons in New York, but the collapse of the offense and multiple blown fourth quarter leads led to his dismissal earlier this month.
Despite that, his résumé is strong. He won a national championship as Alabama’s offensive coordinator, helped develop Josh Allen into a star with the Bills, and has two children who attended Penn State. His son even worked on the Nittany Lions’ staff before joining him with the Giants. With Penn State striking out on other major targets, Daboll’s college background and family ties suddenly matter a great deal. He surged over the weekend as the coaching dominoes fell elsewhere, and he now looks like a real possibility.
Bob Chesney: 1% Chance
Chesney was once the overwhelming favorite, climbing as high as 58% last week. That momentum has evaporated. UCLA has reportedly grabbed him as of Monday afternoon, and he will be heading west to take over the Bruins as Penn State's candidates dwindle.
Kalani Sitake 38% Chance
Sitake has been the surprise mover in the market, surging into contention after Penn State widened its search over the weekend. BYU nearly reached the playoff last season and sits 11th this year heading into the Big 12 Championship. But if they lose to Texas Tech, they will likely be left out once again despite another strong run.
Sitake’s profile fits what Penn State is now forced to consider: a proven leader who has won consistently outside the SEC noise. He spiked as high as 52% on Sunday night before settling into the high teens and low 20s. He is a viable option, especially if Penn State continues to miss on bigger names.
Other Penn State Coaching Candidates
Terry Smith remains at 7% and continues to be respected internally. He is popular with the players and has engineered two strong performances as interim coach, but the administration appears determined to find a bigger name. Smith is more likely to remain on staff than become the full time hire. Beyond him, the board thins quickly, and Penn State’s hiring timeline is shrinking. The Nittany Lions wanted clarity by December 2nd, but instead they are watching the rest of the country settle their situations while theirs only becomes murkier.
The search is still wide open, and until Penn State lands someone, every new twist in the national coaching carousel risks reshaping their board again.
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