Heisman Trophy Odds: Fernando Mendoza Finally Seizes Firm Control of Heisman Race with Big Ten Title Win
The Heisman Trophy race is finally looking all but decided, with Fernando Mendoza grasping clear control after winning the Big Ten title. It was a three-way grab last week with Mendoza, Julian Sayin, and Diego Pavia all in the mix. But with Indiana coming away with the championship, Mendoza has vaulted to a 95% chance of being named Heisman on Saturday, explains CFB analyst Peter Alexis.
Peter Alexis - December 9, 2025, 12:00 PM EST
5 Minute ReadHeisman Trophy Odds: Fernando Mendoza Massive Favorite Ahead of Trophy Presentation on Saturday, December 13th
The Heisman Trophy will be presented on Saturday, December 13th in New York City, continuing one of college football’s most cherished traditions. After months of uncertainty and a historically weak field, the race finally found its defining moment during championship weekend. What had been a wide open contest suddenly crystallized into a single, overwhelming favorite.
Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza delivered the most important win of his career, guiding the Hoosiers to their first conference title since 1945 and snapping a 37-year losing streak to Ohio State. The 13-10 victory was not flashy, but it was monumental, and it provided the missing piece voters had long been waiting for. Indiana is now 13-0 under head coach Curt Cignetti, who transformed the program at remarkable speed, and Mendoza emerged as the backbone of that turnaround.
This was the matchup the Heisman race needed. Mendoza and Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin squared off with the award hanging in the balance, and Mendoza’s poise in a defensive slugfest left little doubt. Sayin’s season ends without a conference title and without a defining Heisman moment, while Diego Pavia’s candidacy suffered due to Vanderbilt missing the playoff and lacking a 13th game. With so many contenders stumbling, all paths converged toward the quarterback who kept winning.
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Heisman Trophy Odds
Heisman Trophy Odds Breakdown
Fernando Mendoza (-2000)
Mendoza is now favored at a staggering 95% after coming into the game at +160, and the award is effectively his to claim. His statistical line in the Big Ten title game was modest, throwing for 222 yards and a touchdown, but voters clearly prioritized winning above all else this season. Indiana’s perfect 13-0 record stands as one of the biggest shock stories in college football, and Mendoza’s steady play was the constant force behind it. In a year where no candidate produced elite numbers, his résumé aligned perfectly with what voters ultimately valued.
The broader narrative also works heavily in his favor. The Hoosiers had not beaten Ohio State since 1988, had not won a conference championship since World War II, and entered the season with limited national expectations. Mendoza helped deliver the most improbable title run in decades. That achievement, combined with the lack of a strong competitor, has locked in his path to the Heisman. At -2000, the race is no longer competitive.
Diego Pavia (+1200)
Pavia remains the only real name on the board with a pulse, but his case slips further after championship weekend. Vanderbilt’s dream season ended at 10-2 without a playoff invite, and Pavia’s absence from a 13th game has become the differentiator voters simply cannot overlook. His odds plummeted from +160 to +1200 this week, reflecting both the missed opportunity and Mendoza’s clinching victory.
Pavia still has narrative appeal as the engine behind one of Vanderbilt’s best seasons ever, but narrative is all he has left. Without a final showcase and without the team success to match the undefeated quarterbacks ahead of him, his window has effectively closed. In any other year he might have surged late, but this race ended the moment Indiana lifted the Big Ten trophy.
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