NFL Odds: Dolphins Over Twice As Likely To Win AFC East As Patriots
Miami Dolphins are now the second-favorites in the betting market to win the AFC East after defeating Los Angeles Rams 28-17.
Miami’s third win in a row has resulted in oddsmakers’ shortening their price of winning the division to +600, which carries an implied probability of 14.29%.
New England Patriots, meanwhile, lost their fourth game in a row – something that hasn’t happened since 2002 – against divisional rivals Buffalo Bills and have slipped to third-favorites to win the division.
Their odds now read +1200, which implied just a 7.10% chance that they will manage to reel in the Bills in the remaining games.
New York Jets are propping up the rest with their odds of +10000 implying just a 0.10% chance of what would be one of the most remarkable comebacks in NFL divisional history.
The graphic below shows how the odds-implied percentages for each team have changed every week, and depicts how varied the paths of the Bills and Patriots have been given that the two teams were practically joint-favorites in pre-season.
OddsChecker spokesperson Pete Watt: “Plenty is being made of just how poorly this Patriots team compares to its predecessors in the past two decades, but Miami Dolphins deserve a huge amount of credit for the way they have turned their season around.”
“Tua Tagovailoa shone on his first start in the NFL and looks set to be a franchise quarterback for the next decade and beyond, but was aided by the excellent performance of the team around him.”
“If the Bills slip up in their pursuit for a first AFC East title in 25 years, then it seems that Miami will almost certainly be waiting to pounce.”
Buffalo Bills -500
Miami Dolphins +600
New England Patriots +1200
New York Jets +10000