NFL Passing Yards Leader Odds Update: Can Anyone Catch Tom Brady?
NFL Passing Yards Leader Odds Update: Tom Brady Paces the League
With Week 13 on the horizon, there are just six more weeks of the NFL regular season remaining. Much of the media buzz and headlines in the coming weeks will be about the postseason pictures in both conferences. For NFL betting purposes, the end of the regular season also means the cut-off for several futures focused on player stats and performance. With the NFL being a quarterback-driven league, the futures market for passing yards leader is always a popular one.
Through 12 weeks of action, a total of seven quarterbacks have eclipsed the 3000-passing yards mark. While one could certainly argue that this group of players has separated itself from the rest of the field, there is no clear favorite to finish with the most passing yards at this point in time. This sentiment is reflected by the fact that the top three Quarterbacks in terms of passing yards entering Week 13 are separated by less than 100 total yards! What’s more, the current frontrunner in yardage is not the odds-on NFL betting favorite to finish the season as the passing leader.
The following article breaks down the betting odds to be the 2021-22 NFL passing yards leader. Along with each player’s current odds and stats are outlooks that might help bettors when handicapping this futures market with six weeks remaining in the season.
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NFL Passing Leader Rankings
Tom Brady | Tampa Bay Buccaneers Odds: +275
Coming into the season, many NFL betting analysts felt that Tom Brady might be poised to have one of the best statistical seasons of his Hall of Fame career. The endless amount of weapons surrounding him in the Tampa Bay offense have proven such beliefs correct. Not only is Brady among the legitimate contenders to win the NFL MVP Award, but he is also the odds-on favorite to finish as the passing leader. Brady is currently second only to Derek Carr with 3403 passing yards on the season. While his average yards per attempt are nearly one fewer than Carr’s, Brady has attempted 44 more passes and certainly plays in a better offense.
Bettors who wish to bet on Tom Brady to finish as the NFL passing leader can find optimal +275 betting odds at bet365. Elsewhere, the odds on TB12 are listed as low as +200.
Derek Carr | Las Vegas Raiders Odds: +300
Despite entering Week 13 with the lead in passing yards, albeit a slim one, Derek Carr is only the second choice on the betting board to finish in front. Of the five quarterbacks with over 3200 passing yards to date, Carr certainly stands out as the surprise. While his 278 total completions are less than all but one of those other four QBs, a hefty 8.3 yards per attempt and 67.3% completion percentage have helped to bolster his yardage total. Unfortunately, Carr will have to try and maintain his lead without the services of star tight end Darren Waller for the foreseeable future.
Those looking to back Derek Carr to lead the NFL in passing yards this season can find +300 betting odds at all sportsbooks currently offering this bet.
Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams Odds: +500
While Matthew Stafford remains in contention for both the NFL MVP Award and passing leader honors, there are arguably more concerns to betting on him now than ever. The Rams are mired in a three-game losing streak. Stafford also lost his second-best pass-catcher, Robert Woods, to a season-ending ACL injury. On top of that, Stafford himself isn’t healthy. A bad offensive line doesn’t figure to help what is reported as a chronic back injury. Stafford is 98 yards behind Derek Carr for the most passing yards entering Week 13. However, being forced to sit out a game or two to try and heal his back would significantly hurt his chances to make up ground.
Bettors looking to wager on Matthew Stafford to lead the NFL in passing can find +500 odds at both FanDuel and bet365.
Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers Odds: +600
The other NFL quarterback in the City of Angels enters Week 13 with 16-1 odds to finish as the passing leader. Justin Herbert has thrown for 3230 yards to date, although it hasn’t directly translated into wins for the Chargers on the field. Taking home the passing yards crown would be a major accomplishment for Herbert in just his second NFL season.
The optimal +600 odds on Justin Herbert to finish as the NFL passing leader are available at FanDuel. Bettors should avoid playing Herbert at PointsBet where the line is two units lower at +400.
Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs Odds: +650
For as much of a struggle as things have been at times this season for the Chiefs’ offense, Patrick Mahomes has still thrown for 3200 yards on the nose. After a Week 12 bye, can Mahomes make a run at the passing yards title over the final six weeks? He will need to improve upon his 7.1 average yards per attempt and 65.5% completion percentage. Both are the worst among the five current passing yardage frontrunners.
PointsBet currently has the best value on Patrick Mahomes to lead the NFL in passing at +650 odds. He is priced as much as one full unit lower elsewhere in the market.
Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills Odds: +2000
The first quarterback with double-digit odds to lead the NFL in passing this season is Josh Allen. The Bills’ signal-caller has taken a major step back from where he was a season ago in terms of decision-making. He has still been able to post solid numbers and enters Week 13 with 3,071 yards through the air. With the Bills offense relying almost exclusively on Allen to make plays, he figures to have plenty of opportunities for big games down the stretch.
The majority of the NFL betting market lists Josh Allen at +2000 to lead the league in passing. Bettors are wise to avoid FanDuel where he is priced all the way down at +1400.
Dak Prescott | Dallas Cowboys Odds: +3500
The runaway favorite to win NFL Comeback Player of the Year, Dak Prescott is just 68 yards short of the 3000-yard threshold through 12 weeks. The fact that he has put up the stats he has despite not having his full wide receiving corps in any game since Week 1 is quite impressive. That is set to change this week, as all of Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, and Michael Gallup are expected to be active together.
Bettors can find optimal +3500 odds on Dak Prescott to finish as the passing leader at both FanDuel and PointsBet. He is priced as low as 20-1 elsewhere.
Kirk Cousins | Minnesota Vikings Odds: +4000
The seventh and final quarterback on the north side of 3000 passing yards prior to Week 13 action is Kirk Cousins. His 105.3 passer rating actually grades out higher than each of the six players with higher yardage totals. One can’t help but wonder if play-calling hinders Cousins’ productivity from time to time. With the Vikings in the thick of the NFC Wild Card race, there could be some big passing games on the horizon.
For the best NFL betting odds on Kirk Cousins to be the NFL passing leader, bettors should play him at +4000 through PointsBet.
Aaron Rodgers | Green Bay Packers Odds: +5000
Despite the cloud cast over him by the media for pointless off-field drama, reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers is putting together yet another phenomenal season. While he is a 50-1 longshot to lead the NFL in passing, the fact that he has nearly 2900 yards despite being forced to miss a game is remarkable. Unfortunately, a late-season bye week for the Packers will further damage his chances of throwing for the most yards.
Bettors looking to take a stab at Aaron Rodgers to lead the NFL in passing this season should target +5000 odds available at FanDuel and PointsBet. However, the best bet to make on Rodgers might just be to win back-to-back MVP awards.
Joe Burrow | Cincinnati Bengals Odds: +8000
After having his rookie season cut short by a multi-faceted knee injury, Joe Burrow has come back even stronger. With help from the Bengals’ impressive array of offensive skill players, Burrow has thrown for 2835 yards through 11 games. He has averaged 8.4 yards per attempt in doing so, the second-most of any quarterback.
While it would take a lot for Joe Burrow to finish as the NFL passing leader, bettors can find solid value in the market. +8000 odds on Burrow at PointsBet are a whopping 30 units better than FanDuel’s 50-1 price.
Kyler Murray | Arizona Cardinals Odds: +10000
After missing three straight games leading into the Cardinals’ Week 12 bye, Kyler Murray’s betting odds of finishing as the NFL passing leader should be much longer than 100-1. An MVP-caliber start to the year has unfortunately been thrown off course.
Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens Odds: +10000
The fact that we are looking at the NFL betting odds to lead the league in passing yards, not quarterback rushing yards, makes Lamar Jackson a longshot. While the Ravens’ dual-threat QB could still contend for MVP honors, it’s hard to see him making up a deficit of 800 yards with just six weeks remaining in the season.
Mac Jones | New England Patriots Odds: +10000
The only rookie quarterback to have even a remote shot at leading the NFL in passing this season is Mac Jones. While it is highly unlikely that he does so given the nature of the Patriots’ run-first offense and a late-season bye week, the fact that Jones is even on this list as a rookie is impressive enough. While PointsBet prices him at 100-1, bet365 has him listed even lower at 80-1 odds.
Ryan Tannehill | Tennessee Titans Odds: +10000
Losing superstar running back Derrick Henry to injury led many to believe that we would see a jolt in Ryan Tannehill’s passing numbers. That has hardly been the case. For the “experts” out there who assumed this would be the case, realize that a team simply cannot change their offensive identity overnight. With both A.J. Brown and Julio Jones on IR and the Titans on bye in Week 13, Tannehill has little hope to finish as the NFL’s passing leader.
Henry has had a passion for sports that few can match for as long as he can remember. What started out as a five-year-old taking interest in the New York Jets and their green jerseys has since become a full-fledged career as a writer and sports betting analyst. His coverage primarily includes the NFL, MLB, NBA, NASCAR, college football, and college basketball. In 2020, he ranked among the top-10 most accurate experts ATS in the BettingPros NFL season contest. You can follow Henry’s sports work on Twitter and other social media platforms @HankTimeSports.