NFL MVP Power Rankings: Breaking Down the Field After Week 16

As Aaron Rodgers continues to separate himself from this year's other MVP candidates, where can bettors find value with only two weeks remaining? Brett Oswalt digs into the argument for key contenders in the latest NFL MVP power rankings.
| 8 min read
Share to Facebook
Share to Twitter
Copy Link

NFL MVP Power Rankings: Breaking Down the Field After Week 16

All-In on A-A-Ron

Aaron Rodgers (-167) 

Just when you thought Rodgers couldn't do more to wow MVP voters, he goes ahead and shines in a Christmas win over the Browns. In the midst of tossing three scores, the 38-year-old surpassed Brett Favre for the most touchdown passes in Packer history, giving him that one element of history to match what was one of Tom Brady's advantages heading down the stretch. Now, Rodgers combines that with nearly 3,700 passing yards and 33 touchdowns to just 4 interceptions, not to mention the league's highest adjusted net yards per attempt, QBR, and quarterback rating. He's been the best player at the most important position in football, and his team is poised for a playoff run as the leader in the NFC North.

Click Here For NFL MVP Odds

Error fetching data.

A Distant 2 and 3

Jonathan Taylor (+700)

Stealing a play from the Rodgers' discount double-check playbook, Taylor did his MVP case a big favor -- improving his odds from +1000 -- and went about his ultra-productive way in front of millions of people on Christmas evening. For the third time in three games, the Indianapolis back rushed for more than 100 yards, and while he didn't get in the endzone, his squad achieved a third consecutive win. His Colts, at 9-6, currently occupy one of the wild card spots in the AFC and could even challenge for the top spot in the division over the final two weeks. Games against the Raiders and Jaguars could be stat-stuffing opportunities for Taylor, who is up to 1,600-plus yards and 17 rushing touchdowns on the year. And in the event Carson Wentz is forced to sit out this coming week due to COVID, that could only add to Taylor's MVP argument if he's able to carry Indy to yet another victory.

Tom Brady (+750)

This past week, a 32-6 blowout of the Panthers, marked the Buccaneers' 11th win in 15 games this season. Brady only needed to attempt 30 passes on the day to get the job done, and though he posted a QB rating north of 95, his 232 yards and 1 touchdown are not what you are looking for when hoping for a nice MVP return. The slight drop in Brady's odds is intriguing, but at this point, I'd steer clear in favor of other options just below him. There's a chance he puts up numbers given matchups with the Jets and Panthers; however, he will be operating without a number of top options.

Click Here For NFL MVP Odds

Streaking QBs

Patrick Mahomes (+1200) 

After this week, it's a little perplexing to see Mahomes' odds go unchanged. Against a struggling-yet-challenging Pittsburgh defense, KC's franchise cornerstone was able to complete nearly 77% of his passes for 258 yards and 3 touchdowns despite the absence of super-tight-end Travis Kelce. Over the Chiefs' eight-game win streak, the 2018 MVP has amassed 15 touchdowns to 4 interceptions, as well as one score on the ground. Among the NFL leaders, he rates out fifth in yards, in a tie for fourth in touchdowns, and in a tie for fourth with three fourth-quarter comebacks. A 2-0 finish and another seven-plus TDs (getting him to 40 for the year) could do wonders for his chances at winning his second MVP in four campaigns.

Josh Allen (+1300)

Allen doesn't have quite the same streak going as Mahomes, as he's just won two straight after dropping the two games prior. But the thing is, he's been super-impressive in the last two, most notably this past week in a win over New England. Allen completed a number of on-point dimes on his way to his sixth 300-yard game of the year and fourth with three touchdowns to go with it. Why did his odds jump so quickly? The proof is in the tape.

Dak Prescott (+2000) 

Prescott fell off the MVP map for a second. Yet, that was all it took for him to remind us why we should never forget about him as a prime MVP candidate. After all, in the process of heading the Cowboys' offensive attack in four straight W's, the 28-year-old signal-caller has completed more than 67% of his passes, including two games north of 70%. This past week, in a 56-point outburst, Prescott turned 39 attempts into 330 yards and 4 touchdowns. Upcoming clashes with the Cardinals and Eagles could not only solidify Dallas' playoff spot but get Prescott strong consideration at the completion of the regular season.

Division-Leading Values

Joe Burrow (+5000) 

In place of Justin Herbert, Burrow is that value quarterback pick of the week, and another young one at that. The reason? It's pretty simple. You throw for a franchise-high 525 yards and 4 touchdowns (0 interceptions) against an NFL defense -- oh, and a divisional rival's nonetheless. With that, Burrow's 941 passing yards against the Ravens this season broke the record for the most yards against one opponent in a regular season. The second-year quarterback's 14 interceptions might be his only blemish on what has been a massive sophomore performance for a likely playoff-bound Bengals team.

Matthew Stafford (+10000)

Dollar for dollar, Stafford could somehow be the better play over Burrow despite the latter's massive Week 16 stat-line. Like his fellow quarterback, the Rams' leader has been key to a division lead at 11-4 despite some up-and-down times. Stafford was limited to one touchdown to three interceptions versus Minnesota this past Sunday, but that's after throwing for eight touchdowns to only one pick in the three previous outings. A division title remains on the line for L.A., so if Stafford puts his best foot forward and raises his play (and stats) in the last two games he could be looking at a top-three finish if not a win if all things break right. At a return of $10,000 for every $100, why not?

Click Here For NFL MVP Odds


Brett Oswalt has been writing about sports for five years, has covered everything from the NBA to College Football DFS, and previously served as an editor at numberFire. He is a Senior Workforce Planning Analyst at Highmark by day, and an avid sports fan and girl-dad by night. He resides in Pittsburgh, PA with his wife, Marley, daughter, Aria, and goldendoodle, Braun.

Expert Handicappers

View all Handicappers

Almost there!

We are loading your bets, and they will be here in a second.