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Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Predictions, and Picks

Breaking down NFL AFC Wild Card action between the Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots. A complete preview of both teams, where to watch, and odds, ahead of the game this Saturday night.
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Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots Betting Odds, Predictions, and Picks

Coach Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots have a tradition of success in the playoffs that precedes them, but books are tipping them as the distinct underdogs for their AFC Wild Card showdown against division rivals the Buffalo Bills. 

The Patriots and Bills are set to face off for a third time this season after splitting their regular-season series 1-1. Both sides clinched a win on the road, and the complexion of the victories couldn’t have been more different. Nevertheless, there is a familiarity with the Bills. The sense that bettors know what to expect from Josh Allen and company. The same can’t be said of the Mac-Jones-inspired Patriots, who are an untried and untested product at this stage of the season. 

Buffalo Bills vs. New England Patriots When, Where, How to Watch, and Odds

Date: Saturday, January 15, 2022,

Time: 8:15 PM ET

Location: Highmark Stadium, Orchard Park

TV Network: CBS

Click Here for Bills vs Patriots Pick

Patriots Betting Preview

Few would have predicted the New England Patriots would reach the playoffs let alone challenge the Bills for the AFC East title. When Belichick decided to cut Cam Newton, there was a sense that the Patriots were resigned to a rebuild project that could take years. Tale told, it took the better part four months, and the Patriots are relevant again. 

There’s a familiarity in that, too, even though this is essentially a different team from its predecessors. The Patriots finished with a solid 10-7 record this season, including a 10-7-0 record against the spread (A\TS) with a 9.4 margin of victory on average. 

The Patriots seemed to lose their way in the last four games, stumbling to a 1-3 record. It’s that wayward finish that cost them a division title and home advantage for the playoffs in the Wild Card round. 

The Patriots lost to the Indianapolis Colts 27-17, the Bills 33-21, and the Miami Dolphins 33-24. Interspersed between those results was a 50-10 evisceration of the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Bills Betting Preview

The Buffalo Bills were tipped as the team to beat in the AFC East at the start of the season by a country mile, but they narrowly beat out the Patriots to the crown. Winning at the Foxborough in Week 16 helped their cause, along with a relatively easy schedule down the stretch that pit them against the likes of the Carolina Panthers, Atlanta Falcons, and New York Jets. 

The Bills finished on a four-game winning streak to improve to a 4-2 record in their last six games. The lone two wobbles came against the Patriots (14-10) and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (33-27). The Bills also capped off their season with a 9-6-2 ATS record that includes an 11.4 winning margin on average. 

If there’s one knockback against the Bills and their so-called championship credentials, it’s the fact that they’ve struggled against the better teams this season and take a 2-3 record against this year’s playoff contenders.

Bills vs. Patriots Odds

TeamMoneylineImplied ML ProbabilitySpreadTotal
Patriots+18834.7%+4.5 (+100)Over 44 (-105)
Bills-20066.7%-4.5 (-105)Under 44 (-110)

Books opened with the Bills as the 4-point home chalk, and the line has held steady throughout the week. According to NFL consensus betting reports, the betting is split almost 50-50 for NFL picks against the spread. The total opened on 43.5 points, but the line jumped out to 44 points.

Bills vs. Patriots Betting Predictions and Picks

The underlining factor for New England’s disadvantaged outlook encompasses several factors, including the lack of experience of rookie quarterback Mac Jones in the playoffs. It’s impossible to know what to expect from a Jones-inspired Patriots side. That uncertainty is strengthened by New England’s less than convincing finish to their regular season campaign, which led to ceding the AFC East title to the Bills. 

It’s likely also strengthened by the fact that when the Patriots beat the Bills in Week 13, Jones played an insignificant role in the outcome. The Patriots' defense and run game ruled on a day hampered by poor conditions and blustery winds.

That said, bettors are still buying what the Patriots are selling, as evinced by the consensus betting reports. Perhaps, this is because the Bills aren’t infallible. They haven’t been as dominant as in 2020 when they reached the AFC Championship game. 

As mentioned previously, the Bills have struggled in several games, and after falling behind early in those, they were unable to turn things around. Often it felt like Allen was doing way too much, taking on too many roles (passing and running) and trying to singlehandedly win it. That strategy doesn’t always work, never mind it's taxing too. 

All told, there’s a lot about this matchup that makes it a tossup for NFL picks despite the odds skewed towards Buffalo. The divisional element, coaching nous of Belichick – who knows a thing or two about winning in the postseason – and the unpredictability of Mac Jones and what he is potentially capable of doing are facets of this matchup that make it tough to handicap. One thing is almost certain, though. That is, it’s likely to be a hard-fought battle between familiar foes, which makes taking the points with the underdogs the more appealing option.

Bills vs. Patriots AFC Wild Card Pick


Nikki Adams is a freelance sports writer that’s honed in on the world of sports betting. She joined OddsChecker in 2021 after having covered a number of major American sports, including NFL and NCAAF, for several other publications in the industry. When she’s not looking for the best betting angles and writing engaging and insightful articles, she’s likely on a tennis court or binging on reality TV.


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