2023 NFL MVP Race: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts Hold Top Odds Ahead of Showdown
2023 NFL MVP race and MVP odds breakdown. Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts sit atop the odds leaderboard ahead of a critical showdown. Which QB can outduel the other in Chiefs vs. Eagles, and take over the top spot? Let's take a look at the odds breakdown ahead of that matchup.
Matt MacKay - November 14, 2023, 10:30 AM EST
5 min2023 NFL MVP Race: Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts Hold Top Odds Ahead of Showdown
The NFL MVP odds race has some new candidates in the top-six after Week 10, but there wasn't much movement at the top. This is due to all three players resting up on their Week 10 Byes, as two of them, quarterbacks Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, prepare for a Super Bowl rematch in Kansas City on Monday Night Football in Week 11.
Tua Tagovailoa remains in the MVP odds race at +550 following Miami's loss to the Chiefs in Week 9, preparing for two tough pass defenses against the Raiders and Jets in back-to-back upcoming matchups. Also at +550 is Lamar Jackson, whose stock dropped from +500 to +550 following a blown 14-point lead at home against the division rival Cleveland Browns. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow's inability to hold onto a lead against C.J. Stroud and the Houston Texans plummeted his MVP odds from +900 to +1700.
Speaking of Stroud, the Texans' rookie quarterback, drafted No. 2 overall, has earned MVP consideration after mounting comebacks against Tampa Bay and Cincinnati. Stroud is second in the league in passing yards (2,626), has thrown 15 touchdowns and just two interceptions, while carrying a 100.9 passer rating, second-best amongst quarterbacks who have thrown for at least 2,450 yards this season.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is here to share his latest analysis on how to bet the current 2023 NFL MVP odds entering Week 11.
2023 NFL MVP Odds
Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Patrick Mahomes | +270 | 27% |
Jalen Hurts | +300 | 25% |
Tua Tagovailoa | +600 | 14.3% |
Lamar Jackson | +600 | 14.3% |
Josh Allen | +1400 | 6.7% |
C.J. Stroud | +2000 | 4.8% |
Joe Burrow | +2000 | 4.8% |
Christian McCaffrey | +3000 | 3.2% |
Dak Prescott | +3000 | 3.2% |
Brock Purdy | +3000 | 3.2% |
NFL MVP RACE INTO WEEK 11
PATRICK MAHOMES (+270) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
Despite winning with more defense and a balanced offensive approach, Kansas City Chiefs two-time MVP winner, Patrick Mahomes, remains the leading MVP candidate at +270 odds. Mahomes has completed 68.6 percent of his pass attempts for 2,442 yards and 17 touchdowns, while recording eight interceptions. We've seen Mahomes use his legs more this season, relying on mobility to extend plays out of the pocket, while also taking off to pick up first downs, which is why he's averaging 6.1 YPC with over 250 rushing yards.
Mahomes has thrown two touchdowns and two interceptions across his last two games played, and now, he'll face Philadelphia in Week 11. The Eagles' pass defense is susceptible to big plays downfield in the passing game, so Mahomes' odds could shorten even more down to +150 or less. Taking +270 could wind up being a good decision, as his upcoming schedule includes the Eagles, Raiders, Packers, and Bills.
JALEN HURTS (+300) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
Jalen Hurts has been making great decisions and targeting his wideouts aggressively this season. The Eagles' offensive line helps Hurts find the end zone whenever they are at the goal line via the "Brotherly Shove", which is a huge reason why Philadelphia's franchise quarterback has seven rushing touchdowns this season, tied with Josh Allen.
Hurts' only loss came against a stout Jets pass defense, recording three interceptions. Since that game, he's only recorded one interception in his past three games played, while throwing for eight touchdowns and rushing for two more. We saw Hurts take a brief lead in the 2022 NFL MVP odds race before being sidelined with a minor injury down the stretch, allowing Mahomes to jump him. Let's get our futures bets in now on Hurts at +300, as a win over an elite Kansas City defense on the road will certainly shorten his MVP odds.
TUA TAGOVAILOA (+550) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
The red-hot start for Tua Tagovailoa is reminiscent of 2022. Miami's QB1 has dominated mediocre defenses but he's yet to win outright against Buffalo, Philadelphia, or Kansas City. Yes, those are all tough matchups, but in order to win NFL MVP, a quarterback needs to be winning games down the stretch.
Production-wise, Tagovailoa has been solid, recording three or more passing touchdown in four of nine games played this season. He doesn't offer much of a rushing upside, but playing within head coach Mike McDaniel's West Coast offensive scheme helps Tagovailoa's quick release tendencies. Of course, playing with Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle also props Tagovailoa up over other quarterbacks. Now, he'll get rookie running back De'Von Achane back from I.R., who allowed the Dolphins' offense to be balanced with his elite speed and vision out of the backfield. If the Dolphins go 3-0 against the Raiders, Jets, and Commanders, which is a strong possibility, then Tagovailoa's odds will shorten.
Let's stake a unit on his current +550 odds before the value dips during Achane's return to the lineup, along with a soft upcoming schedule of opponents.
LAMAR JACKSON (+550) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
After scoring four rushing touchdowns in a two-week stretch, Lamar Jackson has become more of a pocket passer, allowing a deep running back committee to cycle through touches in his place. Eliminating Jackson's rushing upside is a big piece in his NFL MVP odds, as he has only thrown for more than 250 yards in one game this season.
Jackson completed under 57 percent of his pass attempts in a losing effort against Cleveland in Week 10, while throwing one touchdown and two interceptions. He also has ten fumbles on the season, while the low-volume passing attack, placated by a carousel of running backs like Gus Edwards and Keaton Mitchell, may keep Jackson from reaching the ceiling we saw during his 2019 NFL MVP campaign. Upcoming games against the Bengals and Chargers could result in more pedestrian numbers for Jackson, so let's hold off on betting his current +550 NFL MVP odds.
JOE BURROW (+1700) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
One of the biggest movers atop the NFL MVP odds race after Week 10 is Joe Burrow, who threw for over 340 yards in two consecutive weeks for four passing touchdowns, while failing to pull off the outright win at home against the Houston Texans.
Burrow threw a pair of interceptions, his first in three games played, while also taking four sacks and losing a fumble. It was a turnover-prone outing that had some great moments, along with some underwhelming plays that ultimately allowed Houston to claw their way back into the game for a walk-off field goal. Burrow and the Bengals are now 5-4 at the bottom of a crowded AFC North divisional race, so Cincinnati will need to find a way to win upcoming divisional games against the Ravens and Steelers. It starts on a short week road trip to Baltimore in Week 11. Burrow struggled his first time against the Ravens this season, throwing for under 230 yards and a badly timed red zone interception that lead to a 27-24 loss at home.
+1700 is extremely lucrative for Burrow's NFL MVP odds, especially if he goes on to beat his next two divisional opponents on the road. Let's sprinkle Burrow's +1700 NFL MVP odds right now, especially if he shows out with 300 passing yards and multiple touchdowns for the fourth time in his past six games played.
C.J. STROUD (+2000) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
One of the most remarkable stories in the NFL right now is the high-level of play we're watching from Houston Texans rookie quarterback, C.J. Stroud.
Stroud was a polarizing draft prospects for various reasons but he's proved critics wrong already by making a name for himself in the NFL MVP conversation. He's currently sixth at +2000, jumping over Brock Purdy (+2500), Josh Allen (+2800), and Christian McCaffery (+3000) to make his first appearance in the top-six NFL MVP odds.
Houston's pass-centric offense allows Stroud to showcase his quick release and accuracy despite playing with mediocre personnel and a banged up offensive line. Stroud has thrown either two touchdown passes or at least 300 passing yards in six of nine games this season, but most impressive is his ability to avoid turnovers. Week 10 did mark a career-high in the turnover department with two fumbles and only his second interception, but Stroud's upcoming schedule against Arizona and Jacksonville could cement him firmly in the NFL MVP conversation as a rookie.
+2000 is way too enticing to pass up, so let's sprinkle on Stroud's NFL MVP odds, as his next two matchups could lead to more wins and passing production, shortening his odds from +2000 to +800 by the time Week 12 wraps up.
NFL Odds
