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2023 NFL MVP Race: Jalen Hurts Takes Lead in MVP Race after Win on Monday Night Football

2023 NFL MVP race and MVP odds breakdown. Jalen Hurts sits atop the odds leaderboard after taking down Patrick Mahomes on MNF. Can he hold onto the lead down a difficult final stretch? Let's take a look at the odds breakdown after that matchup.
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2023 NFL MVP Race:

After several weeks of Patrick Mahomes atop the 2023 NFL MVP odds race, the Eagles' road win over the Chiefs has brought a new face to replace Mahomes after the conclusion of Week 11.

Jalen Hurts, who challenged Mahomes down the stretch last season in the regular season MVP odds before sustaining an injury, came away with a hard-fought win on Monday Night Football against a stout Chiefs defense. Hurts only attempted 22 passes and found a lot of success with Devonta Smith, while using his legs for 12 carries that converted into 29 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns via "Brotherly Shove" at the goal-line.

Lamar Jackson also sits ahead of Mahomes now at +420 odds, following a strong outing against Cincinnati on Thursday Night Football. Tua Tagovailoa didn't look great but came away with a win against the Las Vegas Raiders at home, linking up early and often with Tyreek Hill. There's a big drop off between Tagovailoa and Dak Prescott at +1500, who has ascended into the MVP odds race with several impressive 300-plus yard outings in the past few weeks, handling Carolina without much difficulty in the second half in Week 11.

Brock Purdy joins Prescott at +1500 after dismantling Jacksonville and Tampa Bay's secondaries in back-to-back weeks to put the 49ers right back into the Super Bowl contender conversation. Rookie quarterback and No. 2 overall draft pick, C.J. Stroud, continues to produce huge passing numbers and has led the Houston Texans to a 6-4 record, winning four of the last five games to have an outside shot at winning league MVP in his rookie season at +1800 odds.

The last quarterback at +1800 odds to make the top-eight after Week 11 is Josh Allen, who looked much more confident and comfortable against the same Jets defense that forced four turnovers against him back in Week 1. Allen threw for 275 yards and three touchdowns in a dominant 32-6 win over a highly-rated defense, crawling back into the MVP odds race.

NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share his latest analysis for how to bet current 2023 NFL MVP odds entering Week 12.

2023 NFL MVP ODDS

PlayerOddsImplied Probability
Jalen Hurts+25028.57%
Lamar Jackson+42019.23%
Patrick Mahomes+46017.86%
Tua Tagovailoa+50016.67%
Dak Prescott+15006.25%
Brock Purdy+15006.25%
C.J. Stroud+18005.26%
Josh Allen+18005.26%

NFL MVP RACE INTO WEEK 12

JALEN HURTS (+250) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

It wasn't a pretty outing by any stretch, but Jalen Hurts and the Eagles marched into Arrowhead Stadium in poor conditions and beat Kansas City 21-17 to avenge their Super Bowl loss. Hurts only attempted 22 passes and failed to throw a touchdown, while committing one interception, but he did manage two rushing touchdowns via "Brotherly Shove" at the goal-line.

His numbers don't show the clutch plays made late in the game to extend drives, whether with his arm to Devonta Smith, or his legs. Hurts has officially surpassed Patrick Mahomes at the top of the NFL MVP odds race at +250 after beating him straight up. Next up, a home game hosting Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills. Lock in Hurts at +250 before his odds continue to shorten with more Philadelphia wins.

LAMAR JACKSON (+420) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

Lamar Jackson is also ahead of Mahomes at +420 odds after throwing for over 250 yards and two touchdowns in a big divisional win over Cincinnati on Thursday Night Football. Jackson also handled nine carries for 54 yards, while he has only thrown two interceptions in his last five games played.

The Ravens are 8-3 atop the AFC North and hit the road for a matchup against a porous Chargers defense on Sunday Night Football in Week 12. Jackson is worth investing in at +420 due to his favorable upcoming schedule against defenses that include the Chargers, Rams, and Jaguars.

PATRICK MAHOMES (+460) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

It's been weird watching two-time MVP winner Patrick Mahomes struggle on offense this season. He's had a couple of big games, but lately, we've seen the Chiefs' franchise quarterback throw for under 200 yards in back-to-back games, while using his legs more to be an effective ball carrier. Mahomes threw for two touchdowns on Monday Night Football and nearly completed a last-minute comeback with a deep ball to Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who dropped a go-ahead touchdown that would've changed the perception on Mahomes' MVP odds with a comeback win.

Instead, he's third in the MVP odds race, creating value we haven't seen since earlier in the season after a loss to Detroit in Week 1. Upcoming games against the Raiders and Packers feature good pass defenses, which could continue holding Mahomes to pedestrian numbers. Investing at +460 is a good decision, but so is holding out in case more mediocre production follows, so either choice is good right now.

TUA TAGOVAILOA (+500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

We expected a lot more production from Tua Tagovailoa in Week 11 against the Raiders, but Miami 's quarterback struggled early, winding up with 325 passing yards and two touchdowns, along with an interception. Tagovailoa was bailed out by Jalen Ramsey on defense, but he still managed to complete over 71 percent of his pass attempts, finding Tyreek Hill for big chunk plays throughout the game. Miami's signature win has yet to come, which is why Tagovailoa is at +500. He gets a tough road matchup in Week 12 against the Jets' pass defense, which should be primed for a bounce-back spot on Black Friday, so we may want to hold off on betting +500 odds right now, as this could dip into +600 or longer territory.

DAK PRESCOTT (+1500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

After three straight games delivering over 300 passing yards and at least three touchdowns, Dak Prescott cooled off against Carolina on the road in Week 11. Prescott managed to play a clean game and still wound up throwing for two touchdowns, but he opted to leverage Tony Pollard in the run game to get his RB1 going, resulting in a slow-paced game that Dallas wound up controlling for the majority of the second half.

Prescott continues to find CeeDee Lamb for touchdowns, while distributing the ball effectively amongst Dallas' remaining skilled personnel. Prescott hosts Washington's defense in Week 12, which has allowed a league-high 24 passing touchdowns this season, so investing in Prescott at +1500 is a high-value bet, as this number could climb into a +800 range with another dominant passing performance on Thanksgiving.

BROCK PURDY (+1500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

Brock Purdy bounced back tremendously out of the Bye, shredding Jacksonville and Tampa Bay for six passing touchdowns and over 620 passing yards. Purdy has posted a passer rating of 148.8 and 158.3, the latter ranking as a perfect score, so he's quickly jumped back into the MVP odds race at +1500.

San Francisco's upcoming schedule includes Seattle twice and Philadelphia, who both have vulnerable secondaries to exploit. Purdy's worth sprinkling on at +1500, as it seems the 49ers' swagger and confidence is right back to where it was before its three-game losing skid.

C.J. STROUD (+1800) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

Arguably the best story of the season, C.J. Stroud continues to flash with his poise in the pocket, recording three straight games with at least 336 passing yards and eight total touchdowns during this three-game winning streak. Houston's franchise changed overnight this offseason, with Stroud's confidence, accuracy, and resiliency being showcased on a weekly basis.

Stroud is accomplishing these numbers with personnel many considered mediocre, while playing behind an injured offensive line. He's elevating the play of his teammates, while winning tightly contested games down the stretch, staying cool under pressure. Stroud and the Texans will host Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 12, which is a huge divisional matchup for the AFC South. Stroud already beat the Jaguars on the road in a dominant outing, now, he gets another matchup against the same secondary he shredded for 280 yards and two touchdowns back in Week 3. +1800 is way too enticing to pass on, so we can sprinkle, but matchups against the Broncos and Jets afterward could stall MVP momentum due to the elite pass defenses they possess.

JOSH ALLEN (+1800) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds

After a mini-losing streak and the firing of OC Ken Dorsey, Josh Allen bounced back in a tough matchup against the Jets defense, completing 62 percent of his pass attempts for 275 yards and three touchdowns. Allen was used less in the run game, deferring to James Cook, while his mobility allows him to extend plays inside and outside of the pocket, which is where the Bills' franchise quarterback tends to be at his best.

Allen will travel to Philadelphia on Thanksgiving weekend in Week 12 to face Philadelphia, whose defense looked greatly improved out of the Bye against Kansas City. +1800 is great value for Allen if he wins, but if he loses the game, which is a strong likelihood, we could see him fall out of realistic MVP conversations with more tough matchups against the Chiefs and Cowboys in Week 14 and Week 15.

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Matt is an avid writer, editor, and researcher. He enjoys analyzing the game within the game which is fantasy sports and sports betting. Music is another constant in his daily life. Matt loves spending time with his wife and three pets. He likes to read, listen to podcasts, and is constantly motivated to create the most accurate and engaging content in the sports betting industry.

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