2023 NFL MVP Race: Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy Surge in MVP Race
Dak Prescott and Brock Purdy vaulted over Jalen Hurts in the latest NFL MVP odds after the Niners took down the Eagles in Week 13. Can one of them separate themselves from the pack in the upcoming games? Matt MacKay breaks down the current MVP odds and what action to take on each player.
Matt MacKay - December 5, 2023, 1:58 PM EST
5 min2023 NFL MVP Race: Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy Surge in MVP Race
We're starting to see the 2023 NFL MVP race heat up after Week 13, as Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagles were routed by San Francisco at home in an NFC Championship game rematch from last postseason.
Hurts, who was previously the odds-on betting favorite to win the 2023 NFL MVP, dropped from +150 down to +350, while Brock Purdy skyrocketed to +300 from +1400 after tossing four touchdowns and 314 passing yards against the Eagles. Purdy joins Dak Prescott at +300 as co-favorites, as the Cowboys' franchise quarterback has produced eye-popping numbers through the air across his last few games, including another three touchdown outing during a 41-35 win over Seattle on Thursday Night Football.
Patrick Mahomes' loss on the road to Jordan Love and the Green Bay Packers dropped the two-time NFL MVP winner down to +650 from +350, while Tua Tagovailoa shredded Washington's porous secondary, going 18-24 for 280 yards, two touchdowns, and no turnovers. Tagovailoa's win over the Commanders didn't move his MVP odds at all, in fact, they regressed down to +950 from +800 a week ago.
Lamar Jackson's NFL MVP odds dropped during his Week 13 Bye, going all the way down to +950 from +600 after a forgettable 20-10 road win over the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 12. Finally, at +1500 odds, Miami's electrifying wide receiver, Tyreek Hill, who is set to break records this season, has climbed over Christian McCaffery to be the only non-quarterback within the current NFL MVP odds race.
NFL handicapper Matt MacKay is back to share his latest analysis on how to bet these latest 2023 NFL MVP odds with plenty of big games left down the stretch of the regular season.
2023 NFL MVP ODDS
Player | Odds | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|
Dak Prescott | +300 | 25% |
Brock Purdy | +300 | 25% |
Jalen Hurts | +350 | 22.22% |
Patrick Mahomes | +650 | 13.33% |
Tua Tagovailoa | +950 | 9.52% |
Lamar Jackson | +950 | 9.25% |
Tyreek Hill | +1500 | 6.25% |
NFL MVP RACE INTO WEEK 13
DAK PRESCOTT (+300) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
Dallas' offense continued to roll in Week 13 against a good Seattle secondary, with quarterback Dak Prescott lighting up the scoreboard with three passing touchdowns for the fifth time in his past six games played. Prescott has been on fire since the prime time blowout loss to San Francisco in Week 5, carving defenses with ease and precision.
We've seen Prescott's MVP odds shorten from +600 to +300, making him one of two current favorites to win the 2023 NFL MVP. Games against the Eagles, Bills, Dolphins, Lions, and Commanders all present favorable matchups and a lot of marquee opponents, so if Prescott and the Cowboys win most of these games, he's a strong contender to win his first NFL MVP award. Let's invest a unit or two on Prescott at +300, as his odds will dip down to +100 territory with a win at home over Jalen Hurts and the Eagles in Week 14.
BROCK PURDY (+300) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
Joining Dak Prescott atop current NFL MVP odds is second-year San Francisco quarterback, Brock Purdy. Purdy's remarkable run continued into Week 13, picking apart a porous Eagles secondary for over 300 yards and four touchdowns. Purdy's completed at least 70 percent of his pass attempts in six straight contests.
Now, he'll draw two more favorable matchups against Seattle and Arizona in the next couple of weeks. As tempting as it is to invest in Purdy right now, we saw his odds shrivel up from +1400 to +300, as predicted in last week's article, following a dominant win over the Eagles. A mediocre outing or another loss, which could happen against Baltimore's stout defense in Week 16, makes Purdy a hold for now. These odds are simply too short to invest in at this current moment, especially when we had +1400 at sportsbooks a few days ago.
JALEN HURTS (+350) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
Jalen Hurts has faced a gauntlet of difficult defenses across his last four games, starting with Dallas, and ending with a 42-19 loss at home against San Francisco. Hurts only completed 57 percent of his pass attempts in Week 13 against the 49ers, while averaging under 3.0 YPC but still managing a rushing touchdown via the Eagles' signature "tush push" goal-line formation.
Hurts' production has been more volatile lately, bouncing from four passing touchdowns against Washington in late October, to zero passing touchdowns against Kansas City, while scoring twice as a ball carrier. Hurts' completion percentage has steadily declined across his last three games against the Chiefs, Bills, and 49ers. Next up, another tough game against Dallas, who nearly went into Philadelphia and beat the Eagles in Week 9. At +350, Hurts has more value than he did at +150 a week ago.
After Dallas, Hurts faces Seattle, the New York Giants twice, and Arizona. His easy rest of season schedule is enticing to invest in his current +350 MVP odds, but a loss to Dallas in Week 14 essentially eliminates Hurts from being a legitimate MVP contender. Let's stake a couple of units on Hurts while his value is at +350, as it'll jump back up into +100 territory with a prime time road win over Dallas in Week 14. A loss, however, ends Hurts' MVP campaign, so we might as well pounce on this number right now.
PATRICK MAHOMES (+650) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
It's been an odd year for Kansas City's offense, which has struggled to look explosive and potent despite playing with a healthy Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes' production is down in 2023, as he's gone five consecutive games without recording a 300-yard or three touchdown performance.
Oddsmakers weren't willing to slide Mahomes out of the top of the NFL MVP odds despite losing to Denver and Philadelphia, but the loss to Green Bay has forced them into taking action. Mahomes slid down from +350 to +650 after Week 13, demonstrating oddsmakers' lack of confidence in his ability to perform at a high enough level to challenge Prescott, Purdy, and Hurts.
Mahomes' next matchup comes against Buffalo's defense, which has held three consecutive opponents under 200 passing yards, including Jalen Hurts. +650 is definitely worth wagering a unit, especially since we haven't seen this type of value all season for Mahomes, but Buffalo and New England have been stout defensively in recent weeks, so temper expectations for Mahomes to wind up winning his third NFL MVP after gaining his second MVP in 2022.
TUA TAGOVAILOA (+950) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
Oddsmakers downgraded Tua Tagovailoa's MVP odds from +800 to +950 despite Miami's franchise quarterback completing 75 percent of his pass attempts for 280 yards and two touchdowns in an easy 45-15 road win over Washington. Tagovailoa's biggest improvement in Week 13 was his lack of turnovers, ending a multi-week slump of miscues.
Tagovailoa benefits greatly playing within head coach Mike McDaniel's West Coast offensive scheme, releasing passes quickly and avoiding big hits in the pocket. Plus, his running backs are humming in the backfield, taking more pressure off of Tagovailoa on passing downs.
The Dolphins have another soft matchup against a porous Tennessee Titans secondary in Week 14, before facing the Jets, Cowboys, Ravens, and Bills. If Tagovailoa and Miami can wind up winning at least two of their final three games against these top-tier opponents, which they haven't managed to do in previous big matchups this season, then Tagovailoa becomes a real MVP contender. For now, even though he's at +950, I'm not willing to lay much other than a small sprinkle on Tagovailoa's 2023 NFL MVP odds.
LAMAR JACKSON (+950) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
It's been a relatively quiet season for Lamar Jackson, who has evolved into a game manager of sorts within Baltimore's offense under first-year OC Todd Monken. Jackson was off in Week 13 on Bye but oddsmakers still plummeted his NFL MVP odds from +600 following a 20-10 road win over the Chargers, to +950. This is immense value, with several big matchups still on tap for the Ravens in the final weeks of the regular season.
The former 2019 MVP winner will come out of the Bye well-rested to face the Rams at home, before going on a two-week road trip to face the Jaguars and 49ers. In Week 17, Jackson and the Ravens return home to host the Miami Dolphins. If Jackson can go 4-0 during this stretch, at least 3-1, or notch a road win over San Francisco in Week 16, he's going to shoot up the NFL MVP odds.
He has only thrown for 300 yards and three touchdowns once this season, which came against a vulnerable Detroit secondary in mid-October. Jackson also hasn't scored a rushing touchdown in five consecutive games since that dominant win over the Lions. Even if the Ravens win these upcoming contests, Jackson will need to become a more efficient passer and score more rushing touchdowns to make a serious push at NFL MVP. He's a hold for the time being, but his rest of season schedule could put Jackson back into the top of the NFL MVP race.
TYREEK HILL (+1500) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best NFL MVP odds
First, we saw Christian McCaffery emerge as the first non-quarterback in the NFL MVP odds race. Now, it's Tyreek Hill, Miami's dynamic WR1 that is on pace to break 2,000 receiving yards for the first time in a season.
Hill has been on fire lately, recording three consecutive games with over 100 receiving yards and four touchdowns across his last three games against Las Vegas, the New York Jets, and Washington. He's only been held under 100 receiving yards in four games, while scoring at least one touchdown in 10 of 12 games played this season.
We all know NFL MVP is a quarterback award, but Hill is currently making a strong case towards becoming a viable contender, at least in oddsmakers eyes. His odds have already jumped from +2000 to +1500 within a couple of hours in the middle of the week, with another top-five matchup awaiting against the Titans in Week 14. It's worth investing a few units on Hill's NFL MVP odds at +1500, as Tua Tagovailoa's production is mostly from Hill's playmaking ability downfield and after the catch.
NFL Odds
