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Five Things You Need to Know for NFL DFS - Conference Championship Weekend

Sunday's NFL Conference Championship games make for the final multi-game DFS slate of the season, and Tera Roberts has five things you need to know when building your lineups for the Commanders vs. Eagles NFC Championship and Bills vs. Chiefs AFC Championship.
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Five Things You Need to Know for NFL DFS - Conference Championship Weekend

In our final multi-game slate of the season, we have a very interesting set of matchups with nearly the same expected point total and no clear, direct lean. With talent across the board at very similar price points, how can we build the optimal lineup? I have five key takeaways you need to know as you build your lineups this week.

Jayden Daniels is the difference-maker

Oddschecker's AI-powered insights show Daniels as the highest projected quarterback on the slate with 24.27 points, just above Josh Allen at 24.12. Daniels is priced $500 cheaper than Allen on DraftKings and while that difference isn’t very significant, it becomes a glaring advantage when you consider that Daniels is potentially the lowest-owned quarterback on the slate simply because the majority of builds will utilize the Eagles’ defense. Daniels offers arguably the highest ceiling as a strong play with stacks of Terry McLaurin paired with Dyami Brown, Zach Ertz or even Austin Ekeler.

Dyami Brown offers low-priced upside for any build

Brown’s recent success has priced him up a bit above other low-end options into somewhat of a middle tier where he’s clearly below players like Khalil Shakir and Xavier Worthy who function as the teams’ WR1, but he offers a solid floor with upside at nearly 10 fantasy points. Brown is just $4,400 on DraftKings at reasonably low ownership and has 11 receptions on 13 targets and a touchdown during the playoffs.

Saquon Barkley is a must-play

Don’t get cute - play Barkley. He’ll likely be the highest-rostered running back, but no other running back offers a higher ceiling this week. The oddschecker AI-powered insights illustrate the dramatic discrepancy between Barkley and other backs. Barkley is projected for 23.91 fantasy points while the next closest back - James Cook - is projected for just 13. Typically, Cook would have a higher projection, but Kansas City’s run defense was ranked in the top 10 this season in rushing yards allowed per game. Philadelphia’s run defense limits the ceiling from Brian Robinson and Kansas City’s backfield has been a mess since the underwhelming return of Isiah Pacheco. Fading Barkley is an unnecessary risk.

Quick note: If you plan to play Jalen Hurts, don’t be afraid to stack with Barkley. Even if rushing touchdowns favor Hurts and the tush push, Barkley is projected for well over 100 rushing yards and a touchdown.

Travis Kelce dominating projections at tight end

I wouldn’t qualify Kelce as a “must-play,” but it’s tough to ignore the enormous gap in projections between Kelce and everyone else. Kelce is projected 16.49 fantasy points this week while all other tight ends are projected at 10 points or lower. Kelce’s season-long play was maddening, but he clearly saved it all up for the playoffs. The Chiefs lean on Kelce when it counts and he remains a strong play this week. 

Xavier Worthy offers exposure and flexibility 

Worthy’s playoff debut was underwhelming - five receptions for 45 yards - and there’s no significant discount on his pricing. However, Worthy pops in lines because of his ceiling potential if the game pushes towards the over. Behind Kelce, Worthy is the clear secondary option in terms of both the oddschecker AI-powered insights and ceiling for the Chiefs. Those leading with the Commanders and Eagles in their build can use Worthy as a price-friendly way to get cost-effective exposure to the other matchup, particularly with injuries to the Bills’ secondary.

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Tera Roberts is a fantasy analyst focusing on redraft, dynasty, and DFS. She's an avid fantasy football player with more than 15 years of experience playing fantasy sports and she's worked with some of the industry’s top websites. Tera is a Clemson alum and Tiger diehard, but she promises to be extremely unbiased ... except for when she talks about Hunter Renfrow — the best route runner in the NFL.

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