Super Bowl 59 DFS Breakdown, Captain Strategies for Barkley, Mahomes, Hurts for Chiefs vs. Eagles

It’s time for our final showdown of the year! The Super Bowl has blessed us with so many paths to points in this matchup. How should we attack the showdown? Let’s walk through expectations for the game, projections via oddschecker's AI-powered insights, and different build options.

Super Bowl LIX Odds & Game Overview: Chiefs vs. Eagles

The Chiefs are a 1.5-point favorite in Super Bowl 59 with an Over/Under of 48.5. Oddschecker's AI-powered insights project the Chiefs as a 4.5-point favorite with a 51 Over/Under. Translation: despite this being a matchup of two of the league’s premiere defenses, we expect points to fly.

The Chiefs ranked second in fewest fantasy points allowed to opposing running backs, not so coincidentally behind only Philadelphia. The Eagles allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to opposing receivers, while the Chiefs were middle of the pack with similar results for quarterbacks. Despite the defensive success, these offenses will find a way to produce. 

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Super Bowl LIX Date, Time, and Where To Watch

• Date: February 9, 2025
• Time: 6:30 pm ET
• Where To Watch: FOX

Click here for the latest Chiefs vs. Eagles Odds

Super Bowl 59 Player Projections, Courtesy of oddschecker's AI-Powered Insights

Jalen Hurts currently has the highest projections with an expected 22.25 fantasy points. Patrick Mahomes and Saquon Barkley follow closely behind at 21.85 and 21.23. After that, there’s about a five-point tier drop-off down to A.J. Brown and Travis Kelce. Finally, there’s a two- to three-point tier drop down Xavier Worthy, DeVonta Smith, and Dallas Goedert. Kareem Hunt is the only other player projected to have double-digit fantasy points.

There’s limited upside to the defenses this week. Both are incredibly stout and arguably the two best defenses in the NFL. However, both teams have been producing offensively and with a high Over/Under, neither defense has enough upside to justify significant play. The reality is that both would need a touchdown to make any impact.

Super Bowl LIX DFS Lineup Captain Choice

So, who’s the captain here?

There’s no reality where you’re not playing Barkley this week. The question is whether or not to play him as your captain.

If you want to make a contrarian line fading Barkley, it wouldn’t be a terrible approach. If Barkley were to underperform, you’d absolutely have the edge. However, The risk of Barkley having yet another massive game is just too high for me to advise it as your primary strategy. 

Consider the difference in pricing versus the difference in projections. Barkley’s captain pricing on DraftKings is $18,000, while Hurts and Mahomes are $15,600 and $15,000 — all with very similar fantasy point projections. It’s possible to play Hurts and Mahomes with Barkley as captain but your other positions would be low-end Kansas City receivers and a defensive Hail Mary. On the other hand, the price difference makes combining Barkley with Hurts or Mahomes at captain very possible. 

Patrick Mahomes Super Bowl 59 DFS Captain Strategy

If you play Mahomes as captain …

With Kelce’s projected fantasy points at 15.12, I like his odds to outperform projections this week. I mentioned in my Super Bowl 59 Receiving Matchups Breakdown, Props to Target for Chiefs vs. Eagles article how the Chiefs lean on Kelce in big moments, and while the Chiefs’ receiving corps certainly has the talent to step up, the primary receivers — Worthy and Hollywood Brown — simply don’t have big game experience. When you consider the Eagles’ cornerbacks are a matchup nightmare, Kelce does have the path of least resistance to a massive performance this week.

Kelce isn’t the only potential pair with Mahomes. Worthy is a fine option, potentially … the optimal option. Worthy is priced $1,000 cheaper than Kelce and while that might not seem like a significant difference — especially considering Worthy is more expensive than a player like Smith — the drop in price makes a massive difference in lineup construction. While I do think Kelce ultimately has the higher output, Worthy provides more flexibility. In addition to the flexibility, don’t underestimate Worthy’s ceiling.

I’m hesitant to lean into any specific props with Worthy and the reason for the hesitation isn’t a lack of confidence in Worthy, it’s that he has too many paths to fantasy production. Worthy can get there through receiving volume, big plays for chunk yardage or he could be deployed creatively on the ground. 

Jalen Hurts Super Bowl LIX DFS Captain Strategy

If you play Hurts as captain …

Looking at Brown and Smith, there’s a wee bit of an issue. The difference in pricing between the two is $2,200 and simply doesn’t align with the difference in projections. Brown does offer the higher upside between the two players so he’s not a complete fade and the Chiefs’ defensive coverage is one he can absolutely win against. However, he does need to hit his ceiling to justify the pricing.

The pricing difference isn’t the only issue with playing Brown. I like all Eagles’ pass catchers’ upside in this game. However, Brown will see the tougher coverage in Trent McDuffie. When you combine the higher pricing with the tougher coverage, it simply makes Brown the riskier play. 

Goedert is another very interesting option, priced at just $5,800. The pricing aligns with playing alongside Smith. Goedert was a bit inconsistent in-season but has been arguably Hurts’ most consistent pass catcher in the playoffs. Goedert has had a minimum of nine fantasy points throughout the playoffs and is very well-priced for his high-floor and high-ceiling combination. 

Playing Hunt is also intriguing with Hurts as captain. If Hurts outperforms Mahomes, it’s likely because Hunt succeeds at the goal line. Unless Isiah Pacheco magically rises from the ashes, the touchdowns simply only have two paths — via Mahomes or Hunt (ok, maybe three paths with the potential of an Xavier Worthy rushing touchdown). It’s important to note that it’s not an either-or situation. Hunt and Mahomes can co-exist, similar to Barkley and Hurts.

Saquon Barkley Super Bowl 59 DFS Captain Strategy

If you want to play Barkley at captain, your value plays are …

As I mentioned earlier, the pricing discrepancy for Barkley means forced value plays if you roll with him at captain and there are a couple of salary-saving options you can deploy.

Noah Gray was on quite the hot streak in the regular season but has had a minimized role in the receiving game thus far in the playoffs. We talked about the likelihood of the Chiefs leaning on Kelce and the same logic can apply to Gray. If you plan to fade Kelce or simply can’t afford him in a build, Gray is a nice pivot value play.

JuJu Smith-Schuester isn’t a name you truly want to play, but he does make sense as a very cheap value play at just $2,000 on DraftKings. The Chiefs value experience and reliability and Smith-Schuester has come through at critical times like the Super Bowl previously. In the Super Bowl LVII, he was the Chiefs’ leading receiver with seven receptions for 53 yards. While he’s playing a much different and reduced role this year, it’s not farfetched that he sees a mild uptick in usage on Sunday. 

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