First Round Draft Pick Odds by Conference: SEC Expected to Carry the Load in NFL Draft Opening Round
Which college football conference will have the most players selected in the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft? It looks like the SEC will lead the way, but the exact number of first-rounders taken is also interesting. Mark Harris analyzes which stars will fly off the board in the first round of the NFL Draft.
Mark Harris - April 24, 2025, 5:10 PM EDT
5 minFirst Round Draft Pick Odds by Conference: SEC Expected to Carry the Load in NFL Draft Opening Round
The players are always the stars of the NFL Draft, as young men from around the country find out which NFL team they will suit up for on Sundays.
All of these guys were once college football players, and a fun side story in each draft is seeing which conferences produce the most players. Of course, we can't know the total amount of draft picks per conference until all seven rounds of the draft are complete, but we will know the amount of first-round picks each conference produced by this time on Friday.
DraftKings Sportsbook allows you to make an over/under bet on how many first-round picks will come from each Power Four conference. The Southeastern Conference is poised to produce the most first-rounders on Thursday night, after leading all conferences with 11 first-round picks in 2024.
Here's my breakdown of the Total Players Selected in the 1st Round odds for each Power Four conference:
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2025 NFL Draft Date, Location, and Where To Watch
- Date: April 24-26, 2025
- Location: Green Bay, WI
- Where To Watch: NFL Network, ESPN
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2025 NFL Draft Conference Breakdown
ACC First Round Draft Picks: Over/Under 3.5
Over: +370, Under: -550
Despite Miami quarterback Cam Ward appearing to be a lock to be the first selection by the Tennessee Titans, the oddsmakers don't see many more first-rounders coming from the Atlantic Coast Conference.
Take a gander at any mock draft, and the only other ACC players commonly projected to go in the first round are Boston College edge Donovan Ezeiruaku and North Carolina running back Omarion Hampton. After those two, it's probably a wait until the mid-second round for another ACC player.
One of Ezeiruaku or Hampton could easily slide out of the first round as well. I'd take Under 3.5 ACC players in the first and not think twice.
Big Ten First Round Draft Picks: Over/Under 9.5
Over: +110, Under: -140
This is where the odds get really interesting. One can reasonably expect that Penn State EDGE Abdul Carter, Michigan DT Mason Graham, and Penn State TE Tyler Warren will be taken in the top half of the first round, if not the top ten.
After those three, there are a good chunk of Big Ten players that will be first-rounders, but will it be at least seven more to hit the over? Below are some more potential first-rounders listed by school:
- Michigan: CB Will Johnson, TE Colston Loveland, DT Kenneth Grant
- Ohio State: OT Josh Simmons, WR Emeka Egbuka, OG Donovan Jackson
- Oregon: DT Derrick Harmon, OT Josh Conerly Jr.
If you think all eight of those guys get taken in the first round, then run to the over. Considering Jackson and Conerly are seen as late first-rounders, there's a good chance they slide to the second round, and therefore Under 9.5 could hit.
However, it would take BOTH Jackson and Conerly to not get picked in the first for the under to be correct. If just one of those guys goes in the first (provided the other nine guys also get picked in the first), then it's 10 Big Ten players and the over wins. I would lean over 9.5 here.
Big 12 First Round Draft Picks: Over/Under 3.5
Over: +450, Under: -700
Much like the ACC, it is really difficult to envision a scenario where four Big 12 players get taken in the first round on Thursday night.
Colorado CB/WR Travis Hunter feels destined to be a Cleveland Brown, Arizona wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan is likely to get picked somewhere in the teens, and then there's Colorado quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who has been mocked to the New Orleans Saints, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Las Vegas Raiders. Heck, there's even a small possibility Sanders drops out of the first round.
Those three will almost certainly be the only first-rounders out of the Big 12. Maybe some team has a wild hair and drafts one of the Iowa State or TCU wide receivers at the end of the first round, but that seems incredibly unlikely. Go with Under 3.5 Big 12 first round players.
SEC First Round Draft Picks: Over/Under 14.5
Over: -200, Under: +145
Last but not least is the SEC, which will have the most first-rounders once again. I think it's instructive that the SEC is the only conference where the over has minus odds, so at least 15 players feels likely.
Let's look at the SEC players commonly mocked in the first round:
- Georgia: EDGE Jalon Walker, EDGE Mykel Williams, S Malaki Starks
- Texas: OT Kelvin Banks Jr., CB Jahdae Barron, WR Matthew Golden
- Ole Miss: QB Jaxson Dart, DT Walter Nolen
- Alabama: LB Jihaad Campbell, OG Tyler Booker
- LSU: OT Will Campbell
- Missouri: OT Armand Membou
- Texas A&M: EDGE Shemar Stewart
That's 13 players right there, then you add in South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori, Tennessee edge James Pearce Jr., Kentucky cornerback Maxwell Hairston, and maybe Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III as potential first-rounders.
Only two of those guys need to get picked on Thursday night for the over to be right. Look for NFL front offices to value the SEC again and go with over 14.5 SEC first round selections.
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