Colts Playoff Odds: Daniel Jones Achilles Injury Leaves Colts With Just 27% Chance of Making Playoffs
The Indianapolis Colts lost Daniel Jones for the season to an unfortunate Achilles injury on Sunday against the Jags. Their playoff chances have gone from a near certainty to an almost complete miss in a matter of weeks, do they have any way to save it? Peter Alexis evaluates the Colts' playoff chances as they try to salvage their season.
Peter Alexis - December 8, 2025, 3:30 PM EST
5 Minute ReadColts Playoff Odds: Dream Season Has Crumbled in Indianapolis After Daniel Jones Tears Achilles on Sunday
The Indianapolis Colts were one of the NFL’s early surprises, racing to an 8-2 start and putting themselves firmly in the AFC playoff picture. That optimism has evaporated in record time. Sunday’s blowout loss to the Jaguars marked their third straight defeat, following losses to the Texans and Chiefs in previous weeks. All three came on the road, but the nature of the performances has been more alarming than the locations. Indianapolis has been outplayed, outschemed, and outgunned for most of the last month, a shocking collapse for a team that once sat comfortably inside the postseason bracket.
The situation took an even darker turn when Daniel Jones suffered a season ending Achilles tear in the rain on Sunday. Jones had already been battling through a fractured fibula, and the heavy conditions helped push the injury past the breaking point. In a matter of weeks, the magic surrounding Indianapolis has vanished. What once looked like a rising team with a clear path to the playoffs now looks like a roster scrambling for answers, short on health and even shorter on stability at the most important position on the field.
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Colts Playoff Odds
The playoff math has become brutal. The Colts are now 8-5, but the context behind that record is far more concerning than the number itself. Oddsmakers have shifted dramatically, pricing Indianapolis at +270 to make the playoffs and -350 to miss, a reflection of both their recent collapse and the escalating injury crisis. The quarterback room has been gutted. Anthony Richardson, who competed for the job in training camp, is out with an orbital fracture suffered in a training accident. Third stringer Riley Leonard, who finished the Week 14 loss, is banged up with a knee issue. That leaves the Colts relying on an unsteady rookie to navigate one of the NFL’s toughest finishing stretches.
And that finishing stretch is a gauntlet. Indianapolis is projected to be double digit underdogs at Seattle this week and will be underdogs again against the 49ers, Texans, and Jaguars to close the season. Those are four defenses capable of overwhelming even healthy and experienced quarterbacks, let alone a battered, inexperienced group that has been reshuffled multiple times in the last month. The Colts can still technically compete for the AFC South, but the losses to Jacksonville and Houston have buried their tiebreakers, and they must play both teams again. Their odds to win the division have fallen to +2200 after once leading the race.
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Colts Super Bowl Odds
As for the Super Bowl market, it has collapsed entirely. Indianapolis has tumbled from as high as +1600 earlier in the season to +20000 now, essentially removing them from any realistic conversation as a contender. The combination of quarterback injuries, a brutal schedule, and three consecutive decisive losses has extinguished the early momentum that once made the Colts one of the AFC’s feel good stories. What remains is a team fighting uphill against long odds with a roster that has endured more adversity in one month than most playoff teams face all season.
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