Ty Simpson NFL Draft Odds: Will Alabama QB Get Drafted in First Round Amid Sportsbook Uncertainty?
Ty Simpson is one of the most intriguing names on the board on Thursday night, as analysts and fans wonder if there will be a second quarterback taken in the first round after Fernando Mendoza, and if it will be Simpson. Peter Alexis breaks down the chances of selection for the Alabama QB.
Peter Alexis - April 23, 2026, 4:00 PM EDT
4 Minute ReadWill Ty Simpson Get Taken in the First Round of the 2026 NFL Draft on Thursday Night?
Ty Simpson has become one of the trickiest first-round questions on the entire draft board. On DraftKings Sportsbook, he is -380 to be a first-round pick, which implies a strong likelihood he hears his name called Thursday night. On FanDuel, his over/under draft position is 29.5 at roughly even odds, which paints a far shakier picture and suggests the market sees him living right on the late-first, early-second-round border.
That gap is what makes Simpson such a fascinating draft-night story. He has the résumé of a legitimate NFL prospect after leading Alabama to an 11-4 record while throwing for 3,567 yards, 28 touchdowns, and five interceptions in 2025, but he also plays the league’s most volatile position in a class where teams are weighing upside, fit, and urgency differently. In other words, the question is not really whether Simpson is good enough. It is whether enough quarterback-needy teams are willing to spend a top-32 pick on him.
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NFL Draft Date, Time, and Where to Watch
- Date: Thursday, April 23rd, 2026
- Time: 8:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: ABC, ESPN
Ty Simpson NFL Draft Odds
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Ty Simpson NFL Draft Odds Breakdown
Simpson’s college case is solid. He completed 64.5% of his passes in 2025, added 416 rushing yards and seven rushing touchdowns, and delivered some major moments in Alabama’s biggest games, including 276 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, and a rushing score against Georgia, then 232 yards and two touchdowns in the playoff win over Oklahoma. He was not a one-week wonder, either. He produced consistently enough to become one of the most discussed quarterback risers in this class.
So why the odds split? The answer is likely team count and draft slotting. The first-round prop only asks whether one team falls in love with him before pick 33. The 29.5 line is much stricter, because it effectively asks whether he goes in the first 29 selections rather than merely sneaking into the back end of Round 1. That distinction matters a lot for a quarterback like Simpson, who has clear first-round support but often gets mocked in the late 20s or early 30s rather than the top half of the round.
The Rams are one of the more natural team fits, and they keep coming up around his range. A recent mock had Simpson going to Los Angeles at No. 29, and broader draft chatter has continued to connect him to late-first quarterback landing spots where a team can develop him rather than force him into Week 1 chaos. The Jets have also been tied to him through reported scouting interest, though that fit appears more dependent on how the rest of their board falls.
That is why the first-round bet and the 29.5 line can both make sense at once. Simpson appears to have real first-round demand, but much of that demand is clustered near the back of Round 1, not safely inside the top 20. If a team like the Rams pulls the trigger, the -380 first-round price cashes and the even-money under 29.5 can still lose if he goes 30th or later. The market is basically saying Simpson is likely a Round 1 quarterback, but not necessarily a comfortable one.
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