2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix Odds, Picks & Predictions: Antonelli Slight Favorite Over Max Verstappen in Miami
The Miami Grand Prix will get underway from Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday afternoon, and Max Verstappen will be battling from the second spot. Can Verstappen grab his first win of the season and topple the red-hot Antonelli on Sunday? Peter Alexis analyzes the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix field and best odds.
Peter Alexis - May 3, 2026, 9:00 AM EDT
5 Minute Read2026 Miami Grand Prix Odds: Can Antonelli Outlast Verstappen After Grabbing Third-Straight Pole Position?
Formula 1 heads to South Florida on Sunday, May 3 at 1:00 p.m. ET for the Miami Grand Prix at the Miami International Autodrome around Hard Rock Stadium. The betting board is topped by Kimi Antonelli (+120), with Max Verstappen (+270) next and a sizable gap back to the rest of the field, which tells you this is being priced as a race with one clear favorite and one main challenger.
That shape makes sense after qualifying. Antonelli stormed to pole with a 1:27.798, beating Verstappen by 0.166s, while Charles Leclerc qualified third, Lando Norris fourth, and George Russell fifth. Antonelli also comes into the weekend leading the 2026 driver standings, which has turned Miami into another huge chance for him to extend his edge at the top.
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2026 Miami Grand Prix Odds
2026 Miami Grand Prix Date, Time, Where to Watch
- When: Sunday, May 3rd, 2026
- Time: 1:00 PM ET
- How to Watch: AppleTV
Click here for complete F1 Miami GP Odds
2026 Miami Grand Prix Odds Breakdown
Kimi Antonelli (+150) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Antonelli is the rightful favorite because he is doing everything right right now. He is on pole, he leads the championship standings, and Miami qualifying marked his third straight pole position of the season. That kind of form is exactly why the market has him near even money. Starting first matters a lot on a track where clean air can shape the whole afternoon, and Mercedes now has the fastest car over one lap at the exact moment Antonelli is driving with enormous confidence.
He also has recent weekend momentum beyond qualifying. Antonelli has been stacking strong results all season, and now he gets the best possible launch point to convert another big weekend into a win. The only real question is whether he can manage race pace and pressure from Verstappen behind him, but on current form, nobody deserves to be shorter.
Max Verstappen (+270) Check out these best odds at Caesars Sportsbook
Verstappen is still the biggest threat, and the odds show that clearly. He qualified second, just 0.166s off pole, and remains close enough to Antonelli that one strong start or one strategy swing could flip the race. Even though Antonelli is the hotter driver right now, Verstappen is still Verstappen, and that means no lead is safe if Red Bull has comparable long-run pace.
Miami has also been a strong circuit for him in the past, which keeps him firmly in the center of the conversation. He is not leading the standings this year, but he is still one of the elite closers in the sport and the most likely driver to punish any small mistake from pole. At +270, he feels like the clear alternative to the favorite rather than just another contender.
Charles Leclerc (+550) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Leclerc starts third, which gives him a real shot if Ferrari can stay in the fight early and avoid losing ground through strategy. That is the good news. The harder part is that he is chasing two faster-priced drivers ahead of him, and Ferrari needs both pace and execution to beat Mercedes and Red Bull straight up.
Still, Leclerc is high in the standings and has been one of the most consistent drivers in the field this season. At +550, he is priced like a driver who needs a little help but is close enough to capitalize if the top two stumble. From third on the grid, that is a fair read.
Lando Norris (+850) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Norris is a fascinating price because he already won the Miami Sprint on Saturday, finishing ahead of Oscar Piastri and Leclerc, so the speed is clearly there. He also qualified fourth, which means he is not buried in traffic and has a real chance to stay attached to the leaders through the opening phase.
The issue is conversion. Starting fourth rather than on the front row means Norris likely needs either a brilliant first lap or some race-day help to actually win. But compared with some of the longer numbers below him, he at least enters Sunday with a fresh Miami result already in hand and a strong car underneath him.
George Russell (+100) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Russell is fifth on the grid and second in the championship standings, which makes him a very live outsider if the race gets messy at the front. He may not have Antonelli’s qualifying magic right now, but he has been consistently banking points all season, and that has kept him right near the top of the title picture.
The challenge for Russell is that he starts behind too many premium names. At +900, the market is saying he has a path, but it probably requires either strategic chaos, a safety car swing, or trouble for at least one of the front four. He is not the most likely winner, but he is still one of the stronger mid-tier threats because of where he sits in both the standings and the grid.
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