2026 FIFA World Cup Group F Odds, Predictions, Analysis for Netherlands, Japan Group
The Netherlands squad is ranked top-10 in the world and has earned them a slight favorite spot atop Group F in the World Cup. Can Memphis Depay and co. outlast Japan and Sweden to advance as the high seed? Let's take a look at this Group F odds and prediction as of Tuesday, June 9th.
Peter Alexis - June 9, 2026, 12:27 PM EDT
4 Minute Read2026 FIFA World Cup Group F Odds: Netherlands Odds-On Favorite in Group F Over Japan, Sweden
Group F features the Netherlands, Japan, Sweden, and Tunisia, giving the Dutch a difficult but manageable path as the top seed. Netherlands is favored at -125, Japan follows at +275, Sweden is +500, and Tunisia is the longshot at +1200 in one of the more competitive mid-tier groups on the board.
The qualification market shows that the top three are all expected to have a strong chance to reach the Round of 32, while Tunisia is priced as the outsider but not a complete throwaway. Netherlands is -1110 to qualify, Japan is -375, Sweden is -200, and Tunisia is +140, which makes the third-place race one of the more interesting pieces of the group.
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2026 FIFA World Cup Group F Odds
2026 FIFA World Cup Group F Odds Breakdown
Netherlands (-125) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Netherlands enters Group F as the favorite and brings the strongest overall profile in the section. The Dutch are eighth in the FIFA rankings, -1110 to qualify for the Round of 32, and +2000 to win the World Cup, which makes them the last team in the main contender tier before the odds begin to drop off. They are not quite priced with Spain, France, England, Brazil, Argentina, Portugal, or Germany, but they are close enough to be taken seriously as a deep-run threat.
The World Cup history is strong, even without the trophy. Netherlands has finished runner-up three times and reached the 2022 quarterfinals before losing to Argentina on penalties. Virgil van Dijk remains the defensive leader, while Cody Gakpo, Xavi Simons, Frenkie de Jong, and Memphis Depay give Ronald Koeman enough attacking and midfield quality to control this group, even with Jurrien Timber ruled out through injury.
Japan (+275) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Japan is the clear second choice in Group F and may be the most dangerous challenger to the Netherlands. Japan is 18th in the FIFA rankings and -375 to qualify for the Round of 32, which reflects both its recent World Cup reliability and the respect it has earned as one of the strongest non-European, non-South American sides in the field. The Blue Samurai reached the Round of 16 in 2022 before losing to Croatia on penalties.
The ceiling question is whether Japan can finally push beyond the Round of 16, which it has reached four times without ever advancing further. Takefusa Kubo is one of the key creative pieces, Wataru Endo brings leadership and midfield balance, and the broader player pool has become deeper, more technical, and more battle-tested in Europe. Japan is not far behind Netherlands in terms of structure, but it likely needs a result in the opener to truly threaten for first.
Sweden (+500) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Sweden is third on the Group F board, but its -200 qualification price shows the market still expects it to have a strong chance to advance. The Swedes are 43rd in the FIFA rankings and are back at the World Cup after missing 2022, with their last appearance coming in 2018 when they reached the quarterfinals. Sweden’s best historical finish remains runner-up in 1958, but this version is more of a dangerous spoiler than a true contender.
The appeal starts up front with Alexander Isak and Viktor Gyokeres, giving Sweden one of the better striker combinations outside the elite nations. Dejan Kulusevski adds creativity and ball-carrying, while the rest of the squad gives Sweden enough physicality to make matches uncomfortable. The concern is whether the midfield and defense can hold up well enough against Japan’s tempo and the Netherlands’ attacking depth.
Tunisia (+1200) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Tunisia is the longshot to win Group F, but the +140 qualification price is not out of reach in the expanded format. Tunisia is 40th in the FIFA rankings, slightly ahead of Sweden, and reached the 2022 World Cup, where it beat France in the group finale but still failed to advance. That has been the broader World Cup story for Tunisia, which has made multiple appearances but has never reached the knockout stage.
The squad has enough quality to make the third-place race interesting. Ellyes Skhiri gives Tunisia midfield stability, Hannibal Mejbri adds energy and creativity, and the broader group is capable of turning games into physical, low-margin contests. Tunisia is not as talented as the Netherlands or Japan, but it has enough defensive structure and tournament experience to make Sweden work for the final qualifying position.
World Cup Group F Betting Outlook
Netherlands to win Group F at -125 is the lean because the Dutch have the best combination of ranking profile, World Cup history, top-end talent, and outright contender status. Japan is a real threat and should not be treated like a soft second seed, but Netherlands has the higher ceiling and the stronger spine. If Van Dijk, De Jong, Gakpo, and Simons control the biggest moments, the Dutch should finish first.
The qualifier value sits with Tunisia at +140. Netherlands and Japan should advance, while Sweden is deservedly favored over Tunisia for the third spot, but that gap may not be as wide as the market suggests. Tunisia has enough defensive organization to squeeze out points, and in a format where eight third-place teams advance, plus money on a competitive outsider is worth a look.
- Group F Lean: Netherlands To Win Group F (-125) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
- Group F Qualifier Value: Tunisia To Qualify (+140) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
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