2026 FIFA World Cup Group I Odds, Predictions, Analysis for France Group
Kylian Mbappe and France are just behind Spain on as tournament favorites, and have high hopes to return to a third-straight World Cup Final. Will they avoid any shortcomings in the group stage and advance with ease? Let's take a look at this Group I odds and prediction as of Tuesday, June 9th.
Peter Alexis - June 9, 2026, 5:29 PM EDT
4 Minute Read2026 FIFA World Cup Group I Odds: Will France Cruise in Group Stage as Tournament Frontrunner?
Group I features France, Norway, Senegal, and Iraq, with France holding clear favorite status in one of the more dangerous groups for second place. France is -215 to win the group, Norway follows at +280, Senegal is +750, and Iraq is the longshot at +8000.
The qualification market shows France as a heavy -2500 favorite to reach the Round of 32, while Norway is -500, Senegal is -230, and Iraq is +500. France is also +550 to win the World Cup, just behind Spain in the outright market, making Les Bleus one of the tournament’s true headliners after winning in 2018 and falling to Argentina on penalties in the 2022 final.
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2026 FIFA World Cup Group I Odds
2026 FIFA World Cup Group I Odds Breakdown
France (-215) Check out these best odds at Bet365 Sportsbook
France enters Group I as the clear favorite and one of the best teams in the tournament. Les Bleus are first in the FIFA rankings, -2500 to qualify, and +550 to win the World Cup, giving them one of the strongest overall profiles in the field. France won the 2018 World Cup, then came within a penalty shootout of repeating in 2022 after Kylian Mbappe dragged them back into an unforgettable final against Argentina.
The attacking group is elite again. Mbappe remains the centerpiece and one of the leading Golden Ball and Golden Boot candidates, while Ousmane Dembele, Michael Olise, Desire Doue, and a loaded midfield give Didier Deschamps multiple ways to break teams down. Olise’s hat trick in a recent warm-up only adds to the sense that France has another attacking weapon ready to emerge, and this group should be theirs if the defense avoids early lapses.
Norway (+280) Check out these best odds at FanDuel Sportsbook
Norway is the clear second choice in Group I and the most interesting challenger to France. Norway is 31st in the FIFA rankings and -500 to qualify for the Round of 32, which shows the market expects it to advance despite being placed with Senegal. This is Norway’s first World Cup appearance since 1998, and the return comes with the most talented attacking core the country has had in decades.
Erling Haaland gives Norway one of the most dangerous scorers in the tournament, while Martin Odegaard is the creative engine and captain. Alexander Sorloth adds another physical scoring option, and the overall profile is built to overpower teams that cannot handle Norway’s size, directness, and final-third quality. France is still the better side, but Norway has enough firepower to separate from Senegal and Iraq.
Senegal (+750) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
Senegal is third on the Group I winner board, but its -230 qualification price shows this is still a dangerous team. The Lions of Teranga are 18th in the FIFA rankings, higher than Norway, and reached the Round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup before falling to England. Senegal also made the quarterfinals in 2002, still one of the best World Cup runs by an African nation.
The player pool remains strong, led by Sadio Mane, Nicolas Jackson, Pape Matar Sarr, Kalidou Koulibaly, and Edouard Mendy. Senegal’s path is built around physicality, defensive experience, and transition danger, which makes the direct matchup with Norway the likely pivot point for second place. The concern is whether Senegal has enough attacking consistency to keep pace if Norway turns the group into a goal-scoring race.
Iraq (+8000) Check out these best odds at BetMGM Sportsbook
Iraq is the clear outsider in Group I, but its return to the World Cup is still a major achievement. Iraq is 57th in the FIFA rankings and +500 to qualify for the Round of 32, with this marking its first World Cup appearance in 40 years. Its only previous trip came in 1986, when it exited in the group stage without earning a point.
The squad is led by Graham Arnold, with Aymen Hussein expected to be the key attacking figure and Zidane Iqbal one of the most important midfield pieces. Iraq has already dealt with a preparation setback after Ahmed Yahya was ruled out with a hamstring injury and replaced by Ahmed Hassan Makenzie. The path to advancement likely requires a result against Senegal or Norway, but the gap in top-end talent makes that difficult.
World Cup Group I Betting Outlook
France is the clear group winner expectation, and the -215 price makes sense given its talent, recent World Cup résumé, and outright contender status. Mbappe, Olise, Dembele, and the rest of the attack should give France too many answers for this group, even if Norway and Senegal are both strong enough to make individual matches uncomfortable. Les Bleus are the class of the section and should control the top spot.
The better value sits with Norway to finish second at +115. Haaland and Odegaard give Norway enough star power to outmuscle Senegal and Iraq, and the -500 qualifier price already shows the market heavily expects Norway to advance. If Norway takes care of Iraq and turns the Senegal match into a direct second-place decider, +115 is a fair way to back the stronger attacking ceiling.
- Group I Lean: Norway To Finish 2nd (+115) Check out these best odds at DraftKings Sportsbook
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