Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction: Can Bryce Elder, Braves Start Hot Against Marlins
The Miami Marlins will visit the Atlanta Braves on Monday night for a series. Can Bryce Elder dominate against the Marlins' struggling lineup on the first matchup? Joey Ruiz provides his prediction and pick in Marlins vs. Braves.
Joey Ruiz - April 22, 2024, 3:28 PM EDT
5 minMiami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction: Can Bryce Elder, Braves Start Hot Against Marlins
The Braves dropped the series finale against the Rangers on Sunday Night Baseball as their late 8th-inning comeback fell short after they stranded runners at 1st and 3rd with no outs and went down 1-2-3 in the 9th. Now the struggling Marlins roll into town. Who has the edge? Let's break it down.
Marlins vs. Braves DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: April 22, 2024
- Start Time: 7:20 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: MLB Extra Innings
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Prediction
The Braves have once again gotten off to a solid start to the season as they enter this series with a record of 14-6. This record is even more impressive when you consider that Spencer Strider has already been lost for the season due to injury, and Max Fried has not been at his best either. Multiple guys have stepped up for the Braves to fill in for this lack of production and that will be the case once again tonight as Bryce Elder will be making his first start of the season tonight.
Elder was a key contributor for the Braves last season as he made 31 starts and totaled a 12-4 record with a 3.81 ERA and 2.90 Wins Above Replacement (WAR). It was a bit of a surprise that Elder did not make the club out of spring training after his productive 2023 campaign, but he has produced well in Triple-A to start the season, and now gets the nod in a spot start and may have a lasting role in the rotation after Allan Winans and Darius Vines did not fare very well in their first starts of the season, which accounted for two of the Braves six losses to this point.
Elder is not a fireballer, and is very much a throwback type pitcher who relies on his location and pitch sequencing to get batters out. One thing Elder does a fantastic job at is keeping the ball in the yard. Last season, he only allowed a homer every 9.15 innings, or basically one homer every other start.
Elder induces a ton of weak contact with an elite cut fastball that plays at around 90-92 mph. He also gets the luxury of facing a Marlins team that is off to a dreadful start. The Fish come into this road series with a record of just 6-17 with a run differential of -38, which is third-worst in the league to this point. The Marlins were not expected to contend or even be a playoff team really but this type of start that rivals the Athletics and Rockies was simply not anticipated.
Ryan Weathers will be on the bump for the Marlins tonight and he has actually been one of the lone bright spots to this point for Miami. Weathers has a 2-1 record with an ERA of 2.70 through 20 innings. Weathers has good stuff and profiles as a middle of the rotation type starter but one thing he really struggles with is command. He has already tallied 9 walks in 20 innings and has only worked past the 5th inning once so far this season due to his usually elevated pitch count.
I believe Weathers is a prime regression candidate tonight against a Braves lineup that is head and shoulders better than any team Weathers has faced so far to this point. Three of the four teams that Weathers has faced include the Giants, Cardinals, and Pirates.. 3 teams who are profiling as below average teams that may not even make the playoffs and his other start came against the Yankees who have been inconsistent at times. Last year in just under 58 innings pitched, Weathers allowed 12 homers and 29 walks and has had a negative WAR every season he has been a pro.
This Atlanta lineup is dangerous from top to bottom, and the ball should be flying at Truist Park tonight. With that being said, I am rolling with Braves F5 -0.5 at -140 odds for two units as my most confident MLB play of the day for tonight's action. I believe the Braves will jump on Weathers early and take a lead into the later innings, behind a strong pitching performance from Bryce Elder.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Pick
Pick: Atlanta Braves F5 -0.5 (-140) Click here to see which sportsbook has the best odds
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