2024 MLB Home Run Derby Betting Picks: Will Pete Alsono, Marcell Ozuna, and More Impress at Home Run Derby
Tonight is the MLB Home Run Derby where eight sluggers will put on a show. Ben Rajavuori is sharing his 2024 MLB Home Run Derby Semifinalist betting picks with a bonus parlay and pick. Check it out.
Ben Rajavuori - July 15, 2024, 5:15 PM EDT
7 min2024 MLB Home Run Derby Betting Picks: Will Pete Alsono, Marcell Ozuna, and More Impress at Home Run Derby
While we have to wait until the end of the week until MLB games return, one of the favorite pastimes of the All-Star break is betting on the home run derby. Below, I have my four favorite pics to reach the semi-finals this year and the ultimate winner.
2024 MLB HOME RUN DERBY DATE, TIME, AND WHERE TO WATCH
- Date: July 15, 2024
- Start Time: 8:00 p.m. ET
- Where to Watch: ESPN
2024 MLB HOME RUN DERBY PREDICTION
For those of you who don’t know, the home run derby has changed slightly from last year, with some new rules and a new format. Instead of the one on one style with a bracket that the MLB has used in previous years, this year it will switch to all eight players going up against each other in the first round, with the top four moving onto the semi-finals. Therefore, I am going to pick the four guys I think will end in the top in the first round and move on to the semi-finals.
2024 MLB HOME RUN DERBY Semifinalist Props
Pick 1: Pete Alonso -245 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
I feel like this has to be the obvious pick. Alonso is the outright favorite to win the home run Derby at +300 odds, as he has won twice before (2019 and 2021). Alonso will once again have Dave Jauss pitching to him, a former Mets coach. Jauss was the pitcher for Alonso the last time he won in 2021, when he also set a first-round record with 35 home runs that year.
Pete Alonso has 19 home runs this season and has tons of home run derby experience, which is why the odds are so good on him. Pitching is one of the most important aspects of the derby, as you need a guy who can consistently throw it down the middle, and Alonso has found that guy in Jauss. Pete should be making it to the semi-finals tonight.
Pick 2: Gunnar Henderson -188 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Gunnar Henderson will be making his home run derby debut tonight. What makes Gunnar such a stand-out competitor in the home run derby is that he has the highest average exit velocity this season of all the hitters in the field tonight. He is also the only player in the home run derby who is top 10 in average bat speed in the majors this year. He’s up there with Aaron Judge and Shohei Ohtani in bat speed metrics, which is saying something about this kid.
The only drawback for Gunnar is that his pitcher will be making his home run derby debut as well, so this could be a bit of a shot in the dark. Buck Britton, Henderson’s pitcher tonight, is the manager of the Orioles AAA team and used to manage Henderson in the minors. Aside from the unknowns with the pitching, Gunnar Henderson will be more than more powerful hitters in tonight’s lineup.
Pick 3: Marcell Ozuna -160 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
I was honestly a little surprised by Ozuna‘s odds in the derby. Ozuna is +450 to win, the fourth-lowest odds. Ozuna definitely has one of the biggest builds out of all the hitters, and quite possibly might have the most raw strength in tonight’s competition. Ozuna is fourth in baseball with 26 home runs this season and hit 40 home runs last year. He is on track to do so again this year, and he also has a very high average exit velocity.
While Gunnar Henderson is just a bit above him, Marcell Ozuna has the second-highest average exit velocity in the field tonight. Ozuna is also first in barrel percentage in the competition at 11.7%. Ozuna will have a bullpen catcher pitching to him tonight. Jose Yepez does not have any home run derby pitching experience, but he is the main batting practice pitcher for Marcell Ozuna, so the two have a lot of familiarity.
Pick 4: Jose Ramirez +198 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
This is my long shot. At +198, Ramirez has the second-highest odds of making it to the semi-finals. However, Ramirez has such a pure swing and is so good at getting under the ball and hitting it far. He also has an advantage with his pitcher, who threw to Ramirez in the home run derby in 2022. Note from Ramirez's last appearance in 2022 that he had to hit from the right side due to a thumb injury. Ramirez typically has more power from the left side, which also makes it more interesting, because the wall is shorter in right field at Globe Life Field, and will give a slight advantage to left-handed hitters tonight. The only lefties in the field are Gunnar Henderson and Jose Ramirez, so I’m picking both to go to the semi-finals.
2024 MLB HOME RUN DERBY Parlay +944 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
Pete Alonso, Gunnar Henderson, Marcell Ozuna, and Jose Ramirez to be the four semifinalists
2024 MLB HOME RUN DERBY Pick
Winner: Marcell Ozuna +450 CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH SPORTSBOOK HAS THE BEST ODDS
MLB ODDS
